石油市場亮點

石油輸出國組織（OPEC）的參考價格指數(shù)5月份連續(xù)第二個月下跌至108.07美元/桶，跌幅為10.11美元或9.4%，為2008年12月以來最大的月環(huán)比跌幅。5月份，期貨價格也大幅下跌。紐約商品交易所WTI指數(shù)較上月下跌8.63美元或8.4%，ICE布倫特指數(shù)連續(xù)第二個月下跌超過10.20美元或8.5%。下跌背后有許多因素，包括凈多頭投機頭寸的大規(guī)模清算、歐元區(qū)擔憂加劇、經(jīng)濟前景轉(zhuǎn)弱，全球原油庫存穩(wěn)步上升。6月第一周，原油期貨價格大幅下跌。美國就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)疲弱、中國制造業(yè)活動放緩和歐元區(qū)危機加深，引發(fā)了又一輪廣泛的市場拋售。6月11日，ORB為97.34美元/桶。

2012年世界經(jīng)濟增長預(yù)期保持在3.3%不變。美國經(jīng)濟增長預(yù)測在略有放緩的情況下下調(diào)了0.1個百分點，至2.2%。對歐元區(qū)的預(yù)測不變，顯示歐元區(qū)將收縮0.4%。日本第一季度表現(xiàn)強勁，因此，年增長率修正了0.2個百分點至2.0%。中國正顯示出受到全球經(jīng)濟放緩影響的跡象，但由于預(yù)期的刺激措施，仍保持在8.2%不變。印度在第一季度經(jīng)歷了明顯的放緩，2012年從6.9%下調(diào)至6.4%。

2012年世界石油需求增長預(yù)計為90萬桶/日，與上一次報告持平。今年上半年，全球經(jīng)濟出現(xiàn)了各種發(fā)展，這給石油需求帶來了很大的不確定性。下半年可能會經(jīng)歷更大程度的不確定性。北半球即將到來的駕駛季節(jié)可能受到汽油零售價格和經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的影響，導(dǎo)致世界石油需求進一步下降。日本核電站的關(guān)閉正導(dǎo)致電力部門更多地使用燃料和原油。然而，如果日本決定恢復(fù)部分核電站的運行，近期日本石油使用量的激增可能會受到影響。

2012年，非歐佩克國家的石油供應(yīng)量預(yù)計將增長70萬桶/日，較上一份報告上調(diào)了30噸/日，美國的強勁預(yù)期增長為支撐。預(yù)計2011年非歐佩克供應(yīng)量增長為90 tb/d。預(yù)計2012年歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油的平均供應(yīng)量為570萬桶/日，比上一年增加了40萬桶/日。根據(jù)第二來源的數(shù)據(jù)，5月份，歐佩克原油平均日產(chǎn)量為3158萬桶，比上個月下降了58tb/d。

5月份的產(chǎn)品市場逆轉(zhuǎn)了上個月的漲幅。這主要是由于全球石油化工部門對石腦油的需求令人失望，加之大西洋盆地的汽油市場因一些關(guān)閉的煉油廠重新開工的消息而有所緩和，導(dǎo)致石油價格居高不下。加上亞洲維修結(jié)束后，供應(yīng)方面的額外壓力，這些因素導(dǎo)致煉油廠利潤率全面下降，盡管原油價格大幅下跌。

在油輪市場，5月份污油現(xiàn)貨運價與超大型油輪平均運價漲跌互現(xiàn)，蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪平均運價則出現(xiàn)上漲。5月份的高噸位可用性和煉油廠維護影響率。與上月相比，東部地區(qū)的清潔現(xiàn)貨運價下降，西部地區(qū)的清潔現(xiàn)貨運價上升。5月份，歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量比上個月增加了12%。今年5月，歐佩克（OPEC）的出海量穩(wěn)定，而美國的出海量有所增加。

5月份，美國商業(yè)石油庫存增加1770萬桶，比去年同期增加910萬桶，比5年平均水平高出近3000萬桶。這一建設(shè)歸因于原油和產(chǎn)品，分別增加了870萬桶和900萬桶。在日本，最新的月度數(shù)據(jù)顯示，4月份商業(yè)石油庫存增加840萬桶，仍比一年前減少840萬桶，但與季節(jié)平均水平持平。總庫存量分為原油和產(chǎn)品，分別增加了270萬桶和570萬桶

2011年歐佩克原油需求與上一份報告持平，為3010萬桶/日，增長40萬桶/日。2012年，歐佩克原油需求預(yù)計為2990萬桶/日，較去年下降了10萬桶/日，較上一份報告略有變化。

Oil Market Highlights 

The OPEC Reference Basket fell for the second straight month in May to $108.07/b, representinga decline of $10.11 or 9.4%, the largest month-to-month loss since December 2008. Futuresprices also fell sharply in May. Nymex WTI declined $8.63 or 8.4%, on top of the previous month’slosses, and ICE Brent fell by more than $10.20 or 8.5%, also down for the second month in a row.Numerous factors were behind the fall, including a massive liquidation of net-long speculativepositions, heightened Euro-zone concerns, a weakening economic outlook, and a steady rise inglobal crude stocks. In the first week of June, crude oil futures prices fell sharply. The decline cameas weak US jobs data, a slowdown in Chinese manufacturing activity and a deepening Euro-zonecrisis sparked another broad market sell-off. On 11 June the ORB stood at $97.34/b.

  World economic growth expectations for 2012 remain unchanged at 3.3%. The US growthforecast has been revised down by 0.1 percentage points (pp) to 2.2%, amid a slight slowingdown. The forecast for the Euro-zone is unchanged, showing a contraction of 0.4%. Japanenjoyed a solid first quarter and, hence, the yearly growth has been revised up by 0.2 pp to2.0%. China is showing signs of being affected by the global slow-down, but remains unchangedat 8.2% due to expected stimulus measures. India experienced a significant slow-down in thefirst quarter and 2012 has been revised down to 6.4% from 6.9%.

  World oil demand growth in 2012 is expected at 0.9 mb/d, unchanged from the previous report.The first half of this year experienced various economic developments world-wide, which placed agreat amount of uncertainty on oil demand. The second half of the year is likely to experience aneven greater degree of uncertainty. The upcoming driving season in the Northern Hemisphere mightbe affected by retail gasoline prices and economic development, leading to a further decline in worldoil demand. The shutdown of Japan’s nuclear plants is leading to more fuel and crude oil usage inthe power sector. However, should Japan decide to bring back some of its nuclear power plants intoservice, the recent surge in the country’s oil usage could be impacted. 

Non-OPEC oil supply growth is projected at 0.7 mb/d in 2012, following an upward revision of30 tb/d from the last report, supported by strong anticipated growth from the US. Estimated nonOPECsupply growth in 2011 stands at 90 tb/d. OPEC NGLs and nonconventional oils are expectedto average 5.7 mb/d in 2012, a gain of 0.4 mb/d over the previous year. In May, OPEC crude oilproduction averaged 31.58 mb/d, according to secondary sources, a decline of 58 tb/d over theprevious month.

 Product markets in May reversed the gains seen in the previous month. This was mainly due tolosses at the top of the barrel, following disappointing demand for naphtha in the petrochemicalsector worldwide, as well as from the easing in the gasoline market in the Atlantic Basin on news ofthe re-start of some closed refineries. Along with additional pressure coming from the supply sidewith the end of maintenance in Asia, these factors led to a fall in refinery margins across the board,despite the steep decline in crude oil prices. 

In the tanker market, dirty spot freight rates were mixed in May with average VLCC ratesdecreasing, while average Suezmax and Aframax rates saw gains. High tonnage availability andrefinery maintenance affected rates in May. Clean spot freight rates fell in the East and rose in theWest from the previous month. OPEC spot fixtures increased by 12% in May compared to theprevious month. Sailings from OPEC were steady in May, while arrivals in the US increased. 

US commercial oil stocks rose by 17.7 mb in May, a gain of 9.1 mb over a year ago and nearly30.0 mb higher than the five-year average. This build was attributed to both crude and products,which increased by 8.7 mb and 9.0 mb respectively. In Japan, the most recent monthly data showsthat commercial oil stocks increased by 8.4 mb in April, leaving them still at 8.4 mb below a yearago, but in line with the seasonal average. The total stock-build was divided between crude andproducts which rose by 2.7 mb and 5.7 mb respectively 

Demand for OPEC crude in 2011 remained unchanged from the previous report to stand at30.1 mb/d, indicating growth of 0.4 mb/d. In 2012, demand for OPEC crude is projected to average29.9 mb/d, representing a decline of 0.1 mb/d from last year’s level and a minor change from theprevious report.