原油價格變動              

去年12月，歐佩克的一籃子參考原油價格上漲近20%，至51.67美元/桶，18個月來首次收于50美元/桶以上。相比之下，這一籃子石油的年平均價值為40.76美元/桶，創(chuàng)下了12年多來的最低水平。歐佩克與非歐佩克之間的歷史性合作消息傳出后，石油綜合體大幅上漲。ICE布倫特原油期貨價格上漲7.84美元，至54.92美元/桶，NYMEX WTI原油期貨價格飆升6.40美元，至52.17美元/桶。今年，ICE布倫特原油期貨價格和NYMEX WTI原油期貨價格分別為45.13美元/桶和43.47美元/桶，為2004年以來最低。              

世界經(jīng)濟              

2016年和2017年世界經(jīng)濟增長率分別上調(diào)0.1個百分點至3.0%和3.2%。繼2016年增長1.7%后，經(jīng)合組織2017年的增長率修正為1.8%。中國2016年和2017年的預測分別保持在6.7%和6.2%，而印度2016年的經(jīng)濟增長則略微下調(diào)至7.2%，隨后是2017年的7.1%。經(jīng)過兩年的衰退，預計俄羅斯和巴西將在2017年復蘇，分別增長0.9%和0.4%。              

世界石油需求             

2016年，全球石油需求增長預計為125萬桶/日，此前對約10萬億桶/日進行了小幅上調(diào)，主要反映出經(jīng)合組織亞太和歐洲的表現(xiàn)好于預期。2016年，全球石油需求平均為9444萬桶/日。2017年，世界石油需求預計將穩(wěn)定增長116萬桶/日，至平均95.60萬桶/日。這意味著10 tb/d的增長，主要是由于經(jīng)合組織（OECD）歐洲在2017年第一季度的石油需求預計會上升。              

世界石油供應              

目前，預計2016年非歐佩克國家石油供應將萎縮0.71百萬桶/日，此前該國石油供應量上調(diào)至70萬億桶/日，主要受挪威、俄羅斯和美國經(jīng)濟增長高于預期的推動。2017年，非歐佩克國家的石油供應量預計將增長12萬桶/日，即向下調(diào)整18萬桶/日。對俄羅斯、哈薩克斯坦、中國、剛果和挪威的向下調(diào)整部分抵消了對美國供應量的向上調(diào)整23萬桶/日。歐佩克天然氣產(chǎn)量繼去年增長15萬桶/日后，預計2017年將增長15萬桶/日。根據(jù)第二來源，去年12月，歐佩克的產(chǎn)量下降了221 tb/d，平均為3308 mb/d。              

產(chǎn)品市場和煉油業(yè)務              

2016年12月，大西洋流域的產(chǎn)品市場表現(xiàn)喜憂參半。美國煉油利潤率受到汽油裂縫的支撐，汽油裂縫是由于對拉美出口強勁，國內(nèi)需求健康所致。歐洲煉油廠利潤率走弱，原因是盡管天氣寒冷，但汽油出口機會放緩，中間環(huán)節(jié)缺乏支持。在亞洲，產(chǎn)品供過于求打壓了利潤率。              

油輪市場              

2016年12月，油船現(xiàn)貨運價在臟艙和清潔艙市場均出現(xiàn)上漲。超大型油輪、蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪的平均現(xiàn)貨運價分別較上月上漲18%、25%和1%。東部港口延誤、節(jié)前活動和一些地區(qū)的噸位供應導致運價上漲。蘇伊士東部和西部地區(qū)12月份的平均凈運費分別增長了19%和26%。與去年同月相比，清潔和臟點運費也平均增加。    股票變動              

2016年11月，經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)股總規(guī)模下降至299300萬股，比最新五年平均水平高出27100萬股。原油和產(chǎn)品庫存分別出現(xiàn)19000萬桶和8200萬桶的盈余。從遠期覆蓋天數(shù)來看，11月經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)股為63.7天，比季節(jié)平均水平高出約5.2天。              

供需平衡              

據(jù)估計，2016年歐佩克原油需求為3120萬桶/日，比2015年高出約180萬桶/日。2017年，歐佩克原油需求預計為3210萬桶/日，2016年進一步增加90萬桶/多佛。

Crude Oil Price Movements 

The OPEC Reference Basket jumped nearly 20% in December to $51.67/b, ending above $50/b forthe first time in 18 months. In contrast, the Basket’s yearly average value came in at its lowest in morethan 12 years at $40.76/b. The oil complex surged on news of the historic cooperation between OPECand non-OPEC. ICE Brent ended $7.84 higher at $54.92/b, while NYMEX WTI soared $6.40 to$52.17/b. For the year, ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI averaged $45.13/b and $43.47/b, respectively, thelowest since 2004. 

World Economy 

World economic growth for 2016 and 2017 has been revised up by 0.1 percentage point to stand at3.0% and 3.2%, respectively. The OECD growth in 2017 was revised higher to 1.8%, following growthof 1.7% in 2016. China’s forecast remains at 6.7% in 2016 and 6.2% in 2017, while India’s growth in2016 was revised down slightly to 7.2%, followed by growth of 7.1% in 2017. After two years ofrecession, both Russia and Brazil are forecast to recover in 2017 with growth of 0.9% and 0.4%respectively.

World Oil Demand

 Global oil demand growth in 2016 is expected at 1.25 mb/d after a marginal upward revision of around10 tb/d, mainly reflecting the better-than-expected performance in OECD Asia Pacific and Europe.World oil demand is expect to average 94.44 mb/d in 2016. In 2017, world oil demand is anticipated torise by a solid 1.16 mb/d y-o-y to average 95.60 mb/d. This represents an upward revision of 10 tb/d,mostly due to an expected uptick in oil requirements in OECD Europe in 1Q17. 

World Oil Supply 

Non-OPEC oil supply in 2016 is now expected to show a contraction of 0.71 mb/d, following an upwardrevision of 70 tb/d, mainly driven by higher-than-expected growth in Norway, Russia and the US. In2017, non-OPEC oil supply is projected to grow by 0.12 mb/d, representing a downward adjustment of0.18 mb/d. Downward revisions to Russia, Kazakhstan, China, Congo and Norway, were partiallyoffset by a 0.23 mb/d upward adjustment to US supply. OPEC NGL production is forecast to grow by0.15 mb/d in 2017, following growth of 0.15 mb/d last year. In December, OPEC production decreasedby 221 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 33.08 mb/d.

 Product Markets and Refining Operations 

Product markets showed a mixed performance in the Atlantic Basin in December 2016. US refinerymargins were supported by the recovery seen in the gasoline cracks on the back of healthy domesticdemand amid stronger exports to Latin America. Refinery margins in Europe weakened due to slowergasoline export opportunities and a lack of support at the middle of the barrel, despite the colderweather. In Asia, product oversupply weighed on margins. 

Tanker Market

 Tanker spot freight rates in December 2016 rose in both dirty and clean segments of the market.Average VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax spot freight rates rose by 18%, 25% and 1%, respectively, froma month before. The higher rates were driven by delays in eastern ports, pre-holiday activities andthinning tonnage supply in some areas. Average clean spot freight rates for both East and West ofSuez increased in December by 19% and 26% m-o-m, respectively. Compared to the same month lastyear, both clean and dirty spot freight also increased on average. 

Stock Movements 

Total OECD commercial stocks fell in November 2016 to stand at 2,993 mb, some 271 mb above thelatest five-year average. Crude and product inventories showed surpluses of 190 mb and 82 mb,respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks in November stood at63.7 days, some 5.2 days higher than the seasonal average. 

Balance of Supply and Demand 

Demand for OPEC crude in 2016 is estimated to stand at 31.2 mb/d, some 1.8 mb/d higher than in2015. In 2017, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.1 mb/d, a further increase of 0.9 mb/dover 2016.