石油市場(chǎng)亮點(diǎn)

石油輸出國組織（OPEC）的參考價(jià)格籃子在6月份仍不穩(wěn)定，波動(dòng)幅度在102-114美元/桶之間。按月度計(jì)算，該籃子連續(xù)第二個(gè)月下跌，平均價(jià)格為109.04美元/桶，比上個(gè)月下降了90美元。由于許多地區(qū)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)信心減弱，以及國際能源機(jī)構(gòu)決定從戰(zhàn)略儲(chǔ)備中釋放石油的臨時(shí)影響，期貨價(jià)格也下跌。紐約商品交易所（Nymex）WTI前一個(gè)月進(jìn)一步下跌5美元或5%，至96.29美元/桶的平均水平。冰布倫特原油價(jià)格也有所下降，但速度有所放緩，原因是北海輕質(zhì)甜味原油供應(yīng)減少，生產(chǎn)受到限制。受此影響，布倫特原油在西德州的價(jià)差在每月約17.60美元/桶的基礎(chǔ)上躍升至創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄高位。7月初，由于投機(jī)性活動(dòng)減少和經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)走弱，市場(chǎng)仍不穩(wěn)定。7月11日，該籃子價(jià)格為111.35美元/桶。

在美國、日本和歐元區(qū)做出調(diào)整后，2011年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)測(cè)仍為3.9%。發(fā)展中國家的增長保持不變，今年中國增長9.0%，印度增長8.1%。2012年，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)計(jì)增長4.1%，略高于2011年。經(jīng)合組織預(yù)計(jì)增長2.5%，而今年增長2.1%。經(jīng)合組織的增長受到日本經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的支持，日本經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)計(jì)將增長2.5%。預(yù)計(jì)美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率將高達(dá)2.9%，而歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率因計(jì)劃采取緊縮措施而放緩至1.5%。預(yù)計(jì)發(fā)展中國家的強(qiáng)勁擴(kuò)張將有所緩解，中國的增長率預(yù)計(jì)為8.5%，印度為7.7%。

預(yù)測(cè)2011年世界石油需求將增長136萬桶/日，略低于上一份報(bào)告，因?yàn)椴环€(wěn)定的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增加了預(yù)測(cè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。2012年，全球石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將以略低于132萬桶/日的速度增長。全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇在經(jīng)合組織（OECD）范圍內(nèi)一直面臨挑戰(zhàn)，增加了明年預(yù)測(cè)的不確定性。美國汽油需求預(yù)計(jì)將恢復(fù)正常增長模式；不過，這仍將是影響石油需求預(yù)測(cè)的主要因素。日本核能發(fā)電的中斷也可能在明年增加石油消費(fèi)。

非歐佩克國家的供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)在2011年將增加60萬桶/日，較上個(gè)月略有下降，主要是由于今年上半年的生產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)疲軟。2012，非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)量預(yù)計(jì)將增長0.7 Mb/d。巴西、加拿大、美國和哥倫比亞預(yù)計(jì)將是增長的主要貢獻(xiàn)者，而挪威、英國、馬來西亞和墨西哥則經(jīng)歷最大跌幅。2012年，歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油產(chǎn)量達(dá)到570萬桶/日，比今年增加了40萬桶/日。根據(jù)第二來源，6月份，歐佩克的產(chǎn)量估計(jì)為2960萬桶/日，比上個(gè)月增加520桶/日。

產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)繼續(xù)受到駕駛季節(jié)末需求增長低于預(yù)期的影響。輕餾分油的看跌情緒進(jìn)一步受到全球石化行業(yè)對(duì)英納法的需求急劇下降的推動(dòng)。桶底的改善部分抵消了托普夫桶令人失望的表現(xiàn)。展望未來，夏季需求的預(yù)期增長可能會(huì)被煉油廠更高的產(chǎn)量抵消，從而限制產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)的任何上升壓力。

隨著超大型油輪運(yùn)價(jià)上漲，6月份油輪市場(chǎng)漲跌互現(xiàn)，蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪的現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)則有所下降。中國的活動(dòng)支持了超大型油輪運(yùn)價(jià)的增長，而有限的活動(dòng)以及過剩的噸位供應(yīng)影響了蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪市場(chǎng)。6月份產(chǎn)品現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)下跌18%，反映出活動(dòng)減少。上個(gè)月歐佩克的航行量增加了1%。

美國商業(yè)庫存在6月份又增加了410萬件。產(chǎn)量增加1940萬桶，原油庫存減少1520萬桶。五年平均盈余為710萬英鎊。在日本，5月份的最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，商業(yè)石油庫存減少了70萬桶。原油和產(chǎn)品價(jià)格走勢(shì)喜憂參半，原油價(jià)格上漲170萬桶，產(chǎn)品總庫存下降240萬桶。日本石油庫存比五年平均水平低190萬桶。

預(yù)計(jì)2011年歐佩克原油需求為3000萬桶/日，比上一份報(bào)告高出約10萬桶/日。這表明比上一年增加了0.4 mb/d。2012年，世界石油需求、非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)和歐佩克天然氣需求的初步預(yù)測(cè)顯示，歐佩克原油需求為3030萬桶/日，比今年增加了30萬桶/日。然而，這些預(yù)測(cè)可能會(huì)受到不可預(yù)見事件的影響。

Oil Market Highlights

 ? The OPEC Reference Basket remained volatile in June, moving within a wide range of$102-$114/b. In monthly terms, the Basket fell for the second consecutive month to average$109.04/b, down 90 from the previous month. Futures prices also declined as macroeconomicsentiment weakened across many regions, as well as on the temporary impact of the IEA’s decisionto release oil from strategic reserves. The Nymex WTI front-month fell a further $5 or 5% to average$96.29/b. ICE Brent also declined but at a slower pace, due to lower supplies of light sweet crudeand constraints in North Sea production. As a result, the Brent spread over WTI jumped to a recordhigh on a monthly basis of around $17.60/b. In early July, the market remained volatile due toreduced speculative activity and weaker economic data. The Basket stood at $111.35/b on 11 July. 

? The forecast for world economic growth in 2011 remains at 3.9% following off-setting revisions inthe US, Japan and Euro-zone. Growth in the developing countries remains unchanged, with Chinagrowing by 9.0% and India by 8.1% this year. In 2012, the world economy is expected to grow by4.1%, slightly higher than in 2011. The OECD is forecast to grow by 2.5%, compared with this year’sgrowth of 2.1%. OECD growth is supported by the recovery in the Japanese economy, which isexpected to expand by 2.5%. US growth is forecast at a higher 2.9%, while growth in the Euro-zoneis seen slowing to 1.5%, due to planned austerity measures. The strong expansion in the developingcountries is expected to ease somewhat, with China forecast at 8.5% and India at 7.7%. 

? World oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.36 mb/d in 2011, slightly lower than in the previousreport, as the unsteady global economy has added risks to the forecast. In 2012, global oil demandis expected to grow at a slightly lower 1.32 mb/d. The global economic recovery has been facingchallenges across the OECD, adding to the uncertainties to next year’s forecast. US gasolinedemand is expected to be back in its normal growing mode; however it will remain a major factoraffecting oil demand projections. The disruption in nuclear power generation in Japan could alsoincrease oil consumption in the coming year. 

? Non-OPEC supply is expected to increase by 0.6 mb/d in 2011, representing a marginal downwardrevision from last month, primarily due to weaker production data in the first half of the year. In 2012,non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by 0.7 mb/d. Brazil, Canada, the US, and Colombia areforecast to be the main contributors to the growth, while Norway, the UK, Malaysia, and Mexico areseen experiencing the largest declines. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are seen reaching5.7 mb/d in 2012, indicating an increase of 0.4 mb/d over this year. In June, according to secondarysources, OPEC production is estimated at 29.60 mb/d, a gain of 520 tb/d over the previous month.

 ?Product markets continued to be impacted by weaker-than-expected demand growth at the onsetof the driving season. The bearish sentiment for light distillates was further fuelled by a sharp drop innaphtha demand from the petrochemical sector globally. The disappointing performance at the topof the barrel was partially offset by improvements at the bottom. Looking ahead, the expectedincrease in summer demand is likely to be offset by higher refinery runs, limiting any upwardpressure on product markets. 

? The tanker market was mixed in June as VLCC rates increased, while Suezmax and Aframax spotrates declined. Chinese activity supported the increase in VLCC rates while limited activities as wellas excess tonnage availability influenced the Suezmax and Aframax markets. Product spot freightrates fell 18% in June, reflecting reduced activities. OPEC sailing increased by 1% last month. 

? US commercial inventories rose a further 4.1 mb in June. The build was attributed to productswhich rose 19.4 mb, while crude stocks fell 15.2 mb. The surplus with the five-year average stood at7.1 mb. In Japan, the most recent data for May shows that commercial oil inventories declinedslightly by 0.7 mb. Crude and products showed a mixed picture with crude up 1.7 mb and totalproducts inventories down 2.4 mb. Japanese oil stocks stood at 1.9 mb below the five-year average. 

? The demand for OPEC crude in 2011 is estimated at 30.0 mb/d, around 0.1 mb/d higher than inthe previous report. This indicates a rise of 0.4 mb/d over the previous year. In 2012, the initialforecasts for world oil demand, non-OPEC supply and OPEC NGLs indicate a demand for OPECcrude of 30.3 mb/d, an increase of 0.3 mb/d over the current year. However, these forecasts couldbe impacted by unforeseen events.