在連續(xù)四個(gè)月上漲后，10月份歐佩克參考籃子下跌2.04美元，至106.69美元/桶。所有籃子組件的值都降低了，但幅度不同。由于煉油廠進(jìn)入秋季季節(jié)性周轉(zhuǎn)期，煉油利潤(rùn)率仍然較低，大部分組成部分受到原油庫(kù)存高企的影響。10月大西洋兩岸原油期貨價(jià)格走低，冰布倫特原油期貨價(jià)格下跌1.81美元，至109.44美元/桶，紐約商品交易所（Nymex）原油期貨價(jià)格下跌5.68美元，至100.55美元/桶，布倫特原油期貨價(jià)格價(jià)差擴(kuò)大至8.90美元/桶。由于美國(guó)原油庫(kù)存急劇攀升，美國(guó)期貨價(jià)格面臨下行壓力，即使在美國(guó)政府關(guān)門后，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)（Federal Reserve）仍保持其經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃的完整性。地緣政治緊張局勢(shì)的緩和也繼續(xù)降低市場(chǎng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)。2013年和2014年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)保持不變，分別為2.9%和3.5%。經(jīng)合組織的預(yù)測(cè)繼續(xù)假定大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)體復(fù)蘇，導(dǎo)致2014年增長(zhǎng)1.9%，而本年為1.2%，與上一份報(bào)告持平。印度最近受到投資和資本外流減速的影響，需要對(duì)其增長(zhǎng)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行向下修正，2013年的增長(zhǎng)率為4.7%，而此前為5.0%，2014年為5.6%，高于5.8%。中國(guó)最近的刺激措施和不斷增長(zhǎng)的出口導(dǎo)致今年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率從7.6%上升到7.8%，明年從7.7%上升到7.8%。盡管全球經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)好轉(zhuǎn)，但增長(zhǎng)空間仍然不振，近期的發(fā)展需要密切監(jiān)測(cè)。2013年世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)比上個(gè)月的報(bào)告略有增長(zhǎng)34 tb/d。這一修訂是基于上半年的實(shí)際和初步數(shù)據(jù)，通常來(lái)自經(jīng)合組織所有區(qū)域以及一些非經(jīng)合組織國(guó)家，特別是非洲國(guó)家。今年世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)目前為90萬(wàn)桶/日。2014年，世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)保持不變，為104萬(wàn)桶/日。預(yù)計(jì)2013年非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)將增加120萬(wàn)桶/日，較上一份報(bào)告略有上升。2014年，非歐佩克國(guó)家的石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)120萬(wàn)桶/日，也比上個(gè)月的報(bào)告高出很多。預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)、加拿大、巴西、南蘇丹、蘇丹、哈薩克斯坦和哥倫比亞將成為明年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的主要貢獻(xiàn)者，而挪威、英國(guó)、敘利亞和墨西哥預(yù)計(jì)將出現(xiàn)最大跌幅。2014年，歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油的平均產(chǎn)量為590萬(wàn)桶/日，比今年增長(zhǎng)了10萬(wàn)桶/日。據(jù)二級(jí)消息人士透露，10月份，歐佩克原油平均日產(chǎn)量為2989萬(wàn)桶，與上月持平，10月份成品油市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)喜憂參半。盡管石腦油出現(xiàn)了一些積極的跡象，但油價(jià)的季節(jié)性走弱仍在繼續(xù)，而中間餾分油和燃料油在全球范圍內(nèi)反彈，原因是在一些地區(qū)暫時(shí)緊縮的情況下，需求略有回升。加上原油價(jià)格下跌，這有助于產(chǎn)品利潤(rùn)率回升。在油輪市場(chǎng)，10月份臟貨現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)漲跌互現(xiàn)。超大型油輪現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)在所有報(bào)告航線上均較上月有所上漲。平均而言，超大型油輪的即期運(yùn)價(jià)比一個(gè)月前高出6%。增長(zhǎng)的主要原因是冬季季節(jié)性需求和從中東到亞洲的貨運(yùn)量增加。在清潔油輪市場(chǎng)，由于噸位需求有限，bothSuezmax和Aframax的運(yùn)價(jià)下降，與上月相比，蘇伊士以東和以西的油價(jià)分別下跌了3%和11%。9月份的初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存總量增加了750萬(wàn)桶。庫(kù)存繼續(xù)出現(xiàn)赤字，五年平均水平（目前為3300萬(wàn)桶）分為增量和產(chǎn)品。就遠(yuǎn)期覆蓋率而言，經(jīng)合組織9月份商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存約為58天，比5年平均水平高出0.1天。初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，10月份美國(guó)商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存總量下降了900萬(wàn)桶，與過(guò)去兩個(gè)月的增長(zhǎng)速度相反，但仍顯示出3400萬(wàn)桶的盈余，為五年平均水平。增長(zhǎng)主要集中在原油方面，原油盈余為4000萬(wàn)桶，而成品油則出現(xiàn)700萬(wàn)桶的赤字。2013年，歐佩克原油的平均需求量估計(jì)為2990萬(wàn)桶/日，與上一份報(bào)告持平，比去年下降了60萬(wàn)桶/日。對(duì)明年的預(yù)測(cè)也有所變化，為2960萬(wàn)桶/日，比今年下降了30萬(wàn)桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket declined by $2.04 to $106.69/b in October after four consecutivemonths of gains. All Basket component values moved lower, but by varying degrees. Mostcomponents were affected by high crude oil inventories, as refineries entered into autumn seasonalturnaround and refining margins remained low. Crude oil futures prices on both sides of the Atlanticmoved lower in October with ICE Brent down $1.81 to $109.44/b and Nymex WTI declining by $5.68to $100.55/b, which widened the Brent-WTI spread to $8.90/b. Downside pressure came on USfutures due to the sharp climb in US crude inventories, even as the Federal Reserve left itseconomic stimulus intact following the US government shutdown. Easing geopolitical tensions alsocontinued to deflate the risk premium in the market. World economic growth forecasts for 2013 and 2014 remain unchanged at a moderate level of2.9% and 3.5%, respectively. The forecast for the OECD continues to assume a recovery in mostmajor economies, leading to growth of 1.9% in 2014, compared to 1.2% in the current year,unchanged from the previous report. India has been impacted by decelerating investment andcapital outflows recently, necessitating a downward revision in its growth figures, which now stand at4.7% in 2013, compared to 5.0% previously, and 5.6% in 2014 from 5.8%. China’s recent stimulusefforts and rising exports have led to upwardly revised growth of 7.8% this year, from 7.6%previously, and 7.8% next year, from 7.7%. Although the global economy continues to improve, thepace of growth remains sluggish and near-term developments will need close monitoring. World oil demand growth in 2013 has been revised up slightly by 34 tb/d from last month’s report.This revision is based on actual and preliminary data for the first half of the year, generally comingfrom all OECD regions as well as some non-OECD countries, particularly in Africa. World oildemand growth for this year currently stands at 0.9 mb/d. For 2014, the forecast for world oildemand growth remains unchanged at 1.04 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2013 is estimated to increase by 1.2 mb/d, representing a minor upwardrevision from the previous report. In 2014, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to grow by 1.2 mb/d, alsoslightly higher than last month’s report. The US, Canada, Brazil, South Sudan & Sudan, Kazakhstanand Colombia are expected to be the main contributors to next year’s growth, while Norway, the UK,Syria, and Mexico are anticipated to see the largest declines. OPEC NGLs and nonconventional oilsare seen averaging 5.9 mb/d in 2014, indicating growth of 0.1 mb/d over the current year. InOctober, OPEC crude oil production averaged 29.89 mb/d, almost unchanged over the previousmonth, according to secondary sources.Product markets exhibited a mixed performance in October. The top of the barrel continued itsseasonal weakening, despite some positive signs for naphtha, while middle distillates and fuel oilrebounded worldwide on the back of a slight recovery in demand amid temporary tightening in someregions. Together with the fall in crude oil prices, this helped product margins to recover. In the tanker market, dirty spot freight rates saw mixed movements in October. VLCC spot freightrates exhibited gains on all reported routes from the previous month. On average, VLCC spot freightrates were 6% higher than a month ago. The increase was mainly driven by winter seasonaldemand and increased shipments from Middle East to Asia. In the clean tanker market, bothSuezmax and Aframax freight rates dropped as result of limited tonnage demand, with both Eastand West of Suez rates falling 3% and 11% compared to the previous month.Preliminary data for September shows total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 7.5 mb.Inventories continued to show a deficit with the five-year average, now at 33 mb, divided betweencrude and products. In term of forward cover, OECD commercial oil stocks stood at around 58 daysin September, 0.1 day more than the five year average. Preliminary data shows that total UScommercial oil stocks fell by 9 mb in October, reversing the build of last two months, but still showeda surplus of 34 mb with the five-year average. The gain was concentrated in crude, which indicateda surplus of 40 mb, while products showed a deficit of 7 mb.Demand for OPEC crude in 2013 is estimated to average 29.9 mb/d, unchanged from the previousreport, representing a decline of 0.6 mb/d from last year. The forecast for next year was alsounchanged at 29.6 mb/d, representing a decline of 0.3 mb/d compared to the current year.