石油市場亮點

今年6月，歐佩克的一籃子參考原油價格上漲11.38美元，至68.36美元，漲幅近20%，創(chuàng)下10月以來的最高月度平均水平。對世界經(jīng)濟前景、美元波動和股市上漲的相當(dāng)樂觀，幫助這家籃子公司股價突破70美元/桶，市場進一步進入驅(qū)動季。然而，疲軟的需求和持續(xù)增長的固定產(chǎn)品限制了看漲情緒。7月份，隨著就業(yè)率的不斷提高，市場上一些更為樂觀的情緒發(fā)生逆轉(zhuǎn)，這一籃子貨幣失去了更多的陣地。7月13日，籃子下移至59.66/b。

繼今年經(jīng)濟萎縮1.4%后，預(yù)計2010年世界經(jīng)濟將以2.3%的增速反彈。經(jīng)合組織預(yù)計增長0.7%，高于今年的-3.9%。美國預(yù)計增長1.2%，而2009年下降2.7%；日本預(yù)計增長0.9%，而今年為6.4%。經(jīng)合組織的主要擔(dān)憂仍然是歐元區(qū)，預(yù)計歐元區(qū)在今年萎縮4.6%后將進一步下跌0.4%。盡管經(jīng)濟合作與發(fā)展組織（OECD）出現(xiàn)了一些令人鼓舞的跡象，但由于失業(yè)率預(yù)計將進一步增長，消費者信心依然受到抑制，許多不確定性因素依然存在。發(fā)展中的亞洲仍然是增長的主要來源，特別是中國（7.5%）和印度（6.5%）。政府刺激措施的持續(xù)性和有效性對于2009年和2010年的經(jīng)濟增長預(yù)期至關(guān)重要。

預(yù)計2010年世界石油需求將轉(zhuǎn)好。經(jīng)過連續(xù)兩年的負增長，預(yù)計明年全球需求將溫和增長50萬桶/日。非OEC國家將占增長的大部分，增長80萬桶/日。中國預(yù)計將增長30萬桶/日，高于今年僅有的小幅增長。經(jīng)合組織（OECD）預(yù)計，繼今年下降180萬桶/日后，該地區(qū)將繼續(xù)收縮30萬桶/日。美國消費預(yù)計將在今年急劇下降70萬桶/日后反彈20萬桶/日。全球經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇的步伐仍然是明年前景的主要風(fēng)險。今年，世界石油需求增長預(yù)測保持不變，為-160萬桶/日。

據(jù)預(yù)測，2010年非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)將增加30萬桶/日，達到5090萬桶/日。巴西、美國、阿塞拜疆、哈薩克斯坦、加拿大、中國和印度被認為是nextyear增長的主要貢獻者。墨西哥、英國、挪威和俄羅斯預(yù)計將經(jīng)歷最大的衰退。歐佩克NGLs和非傳統(tǒng)石油預(yù)計將在2010達到5.3 Mb/d，這表明在本年度約0.5 Mb/d的大幅增長。據(jù)估計，2009年非歐佩克原油供應(yīng)量將增加20萬桶/日，較上一次評估略有上升；6月份，歐佩克原油平均產(chǎn)量為2840萬桶/日，較上月增加39噸/日。

美國的汽油庫存增加，加上大西洋盆地?zé)捰蛷S的運營增加，抑制了產(chǎn)品市場的人氣，對煉油利潤率造成壓力，尤其是在美國。在汽油需求在淡季出現(xiàn)不確定性、中間餾分油庫存反常高企的情況下，這些情況的持續(xù)可能加深當(dāng)前的看跌趨勢。這可能會鼓勵煉油企業(yè)提高維修計劃，這將對原油基本面產(chǎn)生負面影響。

6月份，歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量比上月增加了8%。6月份原油油輪市場的運價比5月份上漲了32%，超大型油輪板塊的月度漲幅最高。隨著原油期貨市場期貨結(jié)構(gòu)的收窄，6月份海上儲油繼續(xù)失去動力。在蘇伊士以西市場疲軟的情況下，清潔現(xiàn)貨運費平均下降了7%。

美國商業(yè)石油庫存在6月份又增加了1100萬桶，連續(xù)第九次增加至近11.13億桶。這意味著有近1億桶的石油過剩，其中原油僅占25%，而1月份為70%。今年以來，原油庫存首次降至3.5億桶以下，下降了1600萬桶，而6月份，成品油庫存大幅增加2700萬桶。在歐洲（EU-15 plusNorway），創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的高餾分油庫存推動商業(yè)石油總庫存升至五年期區(qū)間的上限以上。

據(jù)估計，2009年歐佩克原油需求平均為2850萬桶/日，較上年下降230萬桶/日。2010年，對歐佩克原油的平均需求預(yù)計為2810萬桶/日，比今年下降了40萬桶/日。

Oil Market Highlights 

The OPEC Reference Basket surged $11.38/b or almost 20% to average $68.36/b in June, thehighest monthly average since October. Considerable optimism over prospects for the worldeconomy, US dollar fluctuations and rising equity markets helped the Basket firm to over $70/b, asthe market moved further into the driving season. However, weak demand and continuing builds inrefined products capped the bullish sentiment. In July, the Basket lost more ground as deepeningunemployment rates reversed some of the more hopeful sentiments in the market. The Basketmoved lower to stand at 59.66/b on 13 July. 

Following a 1.4% contraction this year, the world economy is expected to rebound in 2010 withgrowth of 2.3%. The OECD is forecast to grow at 0.7%, up from -3.9% this year. The US is expectedto grow at 1.2% compared to a decline of 2.7% in 2009 and Japan is seen growing at 0.9% from acontraction of 6.4% this year. The main concern in the OECD continues to be the Euro-zone, whichis expected to decline a further 0.4% after this year’s contraction of 4.6%. Despite someencouraging signs in the OECD, many uncertainties prevail as unemployment is expected to growfurther and consumer sentiment remains restrained. Developing Asia continues to be the mainsource of growth, particularly China (7.5%) and India (6.5%). The continuity and the effectiveness ofgovernment stimulus efforts will be crucial for economic growth expectations in 2009 and 2010.

  World oil demand is expected to turn positive in 2010. After two consecutive years of negativegrowth, global demand next year is projected to show a moderate increase of 0.5 mb/d. Non-OECDcountries are seen making up the bulk of the increase, growing by 0.8 mb/d. China is projected toincrease by 0.3 mb/d, up from only minor growth this year. The OECD region is forecast to see acontinued contraction of 0.3 mb/d, following a decline of 1.8 mb/d this year. The US consumption isexpected to rebound by 0.2 mb/d after a sharp decline of 0.7 mb/d this year. The pace of the globaleconomic recovery continues to be the main risk for the outlook for next year. For the current year,the world oil demand growth forecast remains unchanged at -1.6 mb/d. 

Non-OPEC supply is forecast to increase by 0.3 mb/d in 2010 to reach 50.9 mb/d. Brazil, USA,Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Canada, China, and India are seen to be the main contributors to nextyear’s growth. Mexico, UK, Norway, and Russia are expected to experience the largest declines.OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are projected to reach 5.3 mb/d in 2010, indicating asignificant increase of around 0.5 mb/d over the current year. In 2009, non-OPEC supply isestimated to increase by 0.2 mb/d, representing a minor upward revision from the last assessment.In June, OPEC crude production averaged 28.4 mb/d, up 39 tb/d from the previous month. 

The gasoline stock build in the US along with higher refinery runs in the Atlantic Basin havedampened sentiment in the product markets, exerting pressure on refining margins, especially inthe US. The continuation of these circumstances amid uncertainty about gasoline demand over thedriving season and unseasonably high stocks for middle distillates could deepen the current bearishtrend. This might encourage refiners to move up maintenance schedules, which would negativelyimpact crude oil fundamentals.

  OPEC spot fixtures increased in June by 8% compared to the previous month. Freight rates in thecrude oil tanker market increased in June by 32% compared to May with the VLCC sector showingthe highest monthly gain. Storing at sea continued to lose momentum in June with the narrowing ofthe contango structure in the crude oil futures market. Clean spot freight rates declined by 7% onaverage with a much weaker market to the West of Suez.

  US commercial oil inventories increased a further 11 mb in June, the ninth build in a row to hitnearly 1,113 mb. This implies an overhang of nearly 100 mb with crude oil accounting for just 25%,compared to 70% in January. Crude oil inventories fell 16 mb to stand below 350 mb for the firsttime so far this year, while product inventories rose a massive 27 mb in June. In Europe (EU-15 plusNorway), record-high distillate stocks pushed total commercial oil stocks to move above the upperendof the five-year range. 

The demand of OPEC crude in 2009 is estimated to average 28.5 mb/d, a decline of 2.3 mb/d fromthe previous year. In 2010, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 28.1 mb/d,representing a drop of 0.4 mb/d from the current year.