原油價格變動

歐佩克2月份的參考價格籃子平均為54.06美元/桶，上漲9.68美元或近22%，原因是歐洲和亞洲需求迅速回升，市場對油價可能已觸底持樂觀態(tài)度。ICE布倫特原油價格上漲9.04美元，至58.80美元/桶，紐約商品交易所（Nymex）上漲3.40美元，至50.72美元/桶。布倫特原油/桶價差擴大至8美元/桶以上。

世界經濟

2014年世界經濟增長率目前為3.3%，高于上一份報告中的3.2%。2015年全球經濟增長率保持在3.4%不變。OECD2014年和2015年的增長率分別為1.8%和2.2%。中國2014年和2015年的增長預期分別為7.4%和7.0%。印度統(tǒng)計局對2014年和2015年的經濟增長預測進行了大幅修訂，分別上調至7.2%和7.5%。俄羅斯目前預計2015年將收縮3.2%，而上一份報告則收縮2.4%。巴西2015年的增長率也從之前的0.7%下調至0.2%。

世界石油需求

2014年世界石油需求增長的估計值與上一份報告基本一致，為96萬桶/日。2015年，全球石油需求平均增長為117萬桶/日，與上個月相比相對不變。預計2015年石油需求增長的近一半來自中國和中東。

世界石油供應

2014年非歐佩克國家石油供應增長預計為204萬桶/日，較上一份報告上調了0.05萬桶/日，主要原因是2014年第四季度增長強于預期。2015年，非歐佩克國家的石油供應預計將增長85萬桶/日，與之前的評估結果持平。據預測，2015年歐佩克天然氣產量將增長19萬桶/日。此外，據次要消息來源，歐佩克原油產量下降14萬桶/日，至30.02萬桶/日。

產品市場和煉油業(yè)務

2月份，大西洋流域的產品市場繼續(xù)走強。在寒冷天氣提振取暖燃料需求之際，美國的大型維修季節(jié)和一些停電事件助長了市場更加樂觀的情緒。與此同時，在強勁的輕質餾出油需求的支撐下，亞洲市場維持了上個月的大部分復蘇，這使得利潤率保持健康。

油輪市場

二月份臟油輪的即期運價漲跌互現。超大型油輪和蘇伊士型油輪運價逆勢下跌，主要是受東部活動量低和假期的影響，而萊芙拉型油輪運價上漲，部分原因是倉位清單收緊、天氣狀況和港口延誤。所有報告航線的運費仍高于一年前的同一個月。

股票變動

經合組織（OECD）1月份商業(yè)石油庫存下降500萬桶，至26.95億桶。在這個水平上，庫存比五年平均水平高出2200萬件。原油出現5400萬桶的盈余，而成品油庫存仍低于5年平均水平3200萬桶。就遠期覆蓋天數而言，經合組織商業(yè)股為59.3天，比第五年平均水平高出1.5天。

供需平衡

據估計，2014年歐佩克原油需求為2910萬桶/日，與之前的評估基本持平。2015年，歐佩克原油需求量預計為2920萬桶/日，較上個月有所變化。

Crude Oil Price Movements 

The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $54.06/b in February, representing a gain of $9.68or nearly 22% amid a pickup in prompt demand from Europe and Asia and optimism thatoil prices may have reached bottom. ICE Brent rose $9.04 to $58.80/b, while Nymex WTIgained $3.40 to stand at $50.72/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to above $8/b inFebruary. 

World Economy 

World economic growth for 2014 is now seen at 3.3%, up from growth of 3.2% in theprevious report. Global economic growth in 2015 remains unchanged at 3.4%. The OECDgrowth estimate is unchanged at 1.8% for 2014 and 2.2% in 2015. China’s growth forecastremains at 7.4% for 2014 and 7.0% for 2015. The growth forecasts for India in 2014 and2015 have been revised higher to 7.2% and 7.5%, respectively, following large revisions bythe country’s statistical office. Russia is now expected to see a contraction of 3.2% in 2015,compared to a contraction of 2.4% in the previous report. Brazil’s growth in 2015 has alsobeen revised lower to 0.2%, from 0.7% previously. 

World Oil Demand 

The estimate for world oil demand growth in 2014 remains broadly in line with the previousreport at 0.96 mb/d. For 2015, global oil demand growth is expected to average 1.17 mb/d,relatively unchanged from the previous month. Almost half of 2015 oil demand growth isprojected to come from China and the Middle East. 

World Oil Supply 

Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2014 is now expected at 2.04 mb/d, following an upwardrevision of 0.05 mb/d from the last report, mostly due to stronger-than-expected growth in4Q14. In 2015, non-OPEC oil supply is projected to grow by 0.85 mb/d, unchanged fromthe previous assessment. OPEC NGLs in 2015 are forecast to grow by 0.19 mb/d. InFebruary, OPEC crude production declined by 0.14 mb/d to 30.02 mb/d, according tosecondary sources. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

Product markets continued strengthening in the Atlantic Basin in February. The morebullish sentiment was fuelled by the heavy maintenance season and some outages in theUS, at a time when colder weather boosted demand for heating fuels. Meanwhile, theAsian market maintained most of the previous month’s recovery with support from strongerlight distillate demand, which allowed margins to remain healthy. 

Tanker Market 

Dirty tanker spot freight rates were mixed in February. VLCC and Suezmax ratesencountered declines, mainly on the back of low activity and holidays in the east, whileAframax freight rates increased partially as a result of a tightening positions list, weatherconditions and port delays. Freight rates on all reported routes remain higher than thesame month a year ago. 

Stock Movements 

OECD commercial oil stocks fell in January by 5.0 mb to stand at 2,695 mb. At this level,inventories are 22 mb higher than the five-year average. Crude showed a surplus of54 mb, while product stocks remained 32 mb below the five-year average. In terms of daysof forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 59.3 days, 1.5 days higher than thefive-year average. 

Balance of Supply and Demand 

Demand for OPEC crude is estimated at 29.1 mb/d in 2014, broadly unchanged from theprevious assessment. In 2015, required OPEC crude is projected at 29.2 mb/d, alsounchanged from a month earlier.