原油價(jià)格變動(dòng)

在原油市場(chǎng)人氣趨穩(wěn)的情況下，歐佩克5月份參考價(jià)格籃子上漲1.17美元，至105.44美元/桶。ICE布倫特原油期貨價(jià)格上漲1.15美元，至109.24美元/桶，NymexWTI原油期貨價(jià)格下跌24美元，至101.79美元/桶。布倫特原油期貨價(jià)格在上個(gè)月收于6.05美元/桶的7個(gè)月低點(diǎn)后，本月底的平均價(jià)差約為7.45美元/桶。

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)

2014年和2013年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率保持不變，分別為3.4%和2.9%。經(jīng)合組織主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體也沒有出現(xiàn)這種情況。預(yù)計(jì)經(jīng)合組織2014年的增長(zhǎng)率為2.0%。對(duì)中國和印度的預(yù)測(cè)也保持不變，分別為7.5%和5.6%。在新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭放緩之際，隨著工業(yè)化國家面臨一些不利因素，近期出現(xiàn)了增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

世界石油需求

預(yù)計(jì)2014年世界石油需求將增加114萬桶/日，與上個(gè)月的預(yù)測(cè)一致。今年石油需求增長(zhǎng)的一半以上來自中國和中東。預(yù)計(jì)2013年世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)也保持不變，為105萬桶/日。

世界石油供應(yīng)

2014年，非歐佩克國家的石油供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)目前為144萬桶/日，較上一份報(bào)告上升了約60噸/日。增長(zhǎng)主要來自美國、加拿大和巴西。2014年，美國的液體供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)0.95百萬桶/日，達(dá)到1213百萬桶/日。2013年非歐佩克國家的供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期保持不變，為135百萬桶/日。歐佩克國家天然氣產(chǎn)量預(yù)計(jì)2014年平均為581百萬桶/日。5月份，按二級(jí)來源計(jì)算的原油產(chǎn)量平均為2976萬桶/日，比一個(gè)月前增加了142噸/日。

產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)和煉油業(yè)務(wù)

隨著美國駕駛季節(jié)的開始，大西洋盆地的產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)得到了汽油需求增加的支持，盡管煉油廠的高產(chǎn)量和汽油庫存的增加已經(jīng)對(duì)利潤率造成了壓力。5月份，由于中間餾分油和汽油裂縫的蔓延，亞洲市場(chǎng)失去了優(yōu)勢(shì)，這抵消了桶底的積極表現(xiàn)。

油輪市場(chǎng)

5月份油輪市場(chǎng)情緒喜憂參半，所有報(bào)告航線的超大型油輪運(yùn)價(jià)均下降，蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪運(yùn)價(jià)則較前一個(gè)月持平。Tankerson所有骯臟的部門都受到市場(chǎng)活動(dòng)的影響，而與上月相比，清潔現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)費(fèi)平均下降了4%。

股票變動(dòng)

經(jīng)合組織（OECD）4月份的商業(yè)庫存大幅上升，但仍比五年平均水平低8000萬桶。原油和產(chǎn)品分別出現(xiàn)1600萬桶和6400萬桶的赤字，就遠(yuǎn)期覆蓋率而言，經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)庫存為57.5天。初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，5月份美國商業(yè)石油庫存總量增加1750萬桶，與5年平均水平持平。原油庫存比五年平均水平高出1600萬桶，而產(chǎn)量則低于1600萬桶。

供需平衡

2013年，歐佩克原油需求與上一份報(bào)告持平，為3010萬桶/日，較上一年減少40萬桶/日。2014年，歐佩克原油需求量預(yù)測(cè)值下調(diào)了10萬桶/日，至2970萬桶/日，較上年下降了40萬桶/日。

Crude Oil Price Movements 

The OPEC Reference Basket increased by $1.17 to stand at $105.44/b in May amidfirming sentiment in the crude oil market. ICE Brent rose $1.15 to $109.24/b, while NymexWTI slipped 24 to $101.79/b. The Brent-WTI spread ended the month at an averagearound $7.45/b, after settling at a seven-month low of $6.05/b in the previous month. 

World Economy 

World economic growth figures remain unchanged at 3.4% for 2014 and 2.9% in 2013. Norevisions have been made in the major OECD economies. OECD growth is forecast at2.0% in 2014. The forecasts for China and India also remain unchanged at 7.5% and5.6%, respectively. Risks to the growth forecast have emerged recently as industrialisedeconomies are facing some headwinds, amid slowing momentum in the emergingeconomies. 

World Oil Demand 

World oil demand is expected to increase by 1.14 mb/d in 2014, in line with the previousmonth’s forecast. More than half of oil demand growth this year is seen coming from Chinaand the Middle East. Estimated world oil demand growth in 2013 was also left unchangedat 1.05 mb/d. 

World Oil Supply 

Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2014 now stands at 1.44 mb/d, representing an upwardrevision of around 60 tb/d from the previous report. Growth is seen coming mainly from theUS, Canada, and Brazil. US liquids supply in 2014 is projected to grow by 0.95 mb/d toreach 12.13 mb/d. The 2013 non-OPEC supply growth estimate was left unchanged at1.35 mb/d. OPEC NGL production is forecast to average 5.81 mb/d in 2014. In May, OPECcrude production according to secondary sources averaged 29.76 mb/d, an increase of142 tb/d from a month ago. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

Product markets in the Atlantic Basin received support from increasing gasoline demandwith the start of the US driving season, although higher refinery runs and increasinggasoline inventories have pressured margins. The Asian market lost ground in May due toweakening middle distillates and gasoline crack spreads, which more than offset thepositive performance of the bottom of the barrel. 

Tanker Market 

Tanker market sentiment was mixed in May, with VLCC rates dropping on all reportedroutes, while Suezmax and Aframax freight rates were flat from a month before. Tankerson all dirty segments suffered from low market activities, while clean spot freight ratesdeclined by 4% on average, compared to the previous month. 

Stock Movements 

OECD commercial inventories rose sharply in April, but still remained 80 mb below thefive-year average. Crude and products showed deficits of 16 mb and 64 mb, respectively.In terms of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 57.5 days. Preliminary datashows that US total commercial oil stocks rose by 17.5 mb in May, remaining in line withthe five-year average. Crude stocks were 16 mb over the five-year average, while productswere 16 mb below. 

Balance of Supply and Demand 

Demand for OPEC crude remained unchanged in 2013 from the previous report to stand at30.1 mb/d, representing a decrease of 0.4 mb/d compared with the previous year. Theforecast for required OPEC crude in 2014 was revised down by 0.1 mb/d to stand at29.7 mb/d, a decline of 0.4 mb/d from the previous year.