原油價(jià)格變動(dòng)8月份，歐佩克參考價(jià)格指數(shù)跌至50美元/桶以下，至平均45.46美元/桶，在持續(xù)供過(guò)于求和中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)蕩的情況下，大部分被拋售。克魯?shù)蠚W原油期貨再次大幅下挫至多月低點(diǎn)，ICE布倫特原油期貨收于48.21美元/桶，紐約商品交易所WTI原油期貨收于42.89美元/桶。8月份，投機(jī)者繼續(xù)看跌，石油期貨和期權(quán)凈多頭頭寸創(chuàng)下歷史新低。8月份布倫特-WTI價(jià)差收窄約52美元至5.32美元/桶。世界經(jīng)濟(jì)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率已下調(diào)至2015年度的3.1%和2016年度的3.4%。雖然經(jīng)合組織2015年度的增長(zhǎng)率保持在2%和2016年度的2.1%不變，但主要新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體正日益面臨挑戰(zhàn)。2015年和2016年，中國(guó)和印度的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)分別下調(diào)了0.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，目前分別為6.8%和6.4%，印度為7.4%和7.6%。世界石油需求在2015年，世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)計(jì)約為146萬(wàn)桶/日，主要是為了反映經(jīng)合組織地區(qū)好于預(yù)期的數(shù)據(jù)。2016年，世界石油需求預(yù)計(jì)在向下修正約50tb/d后將增加129mb/d。2015年，世界石油供應(yīng)量預(yù)計(jì)將增加88mb/d，隨后向下修正約72tb/d，原因是美國(guó)的產(chǎn)量低于預(yù)期。預(yù)計(jì)2016年，非運(yùn)營(yíng)成本供應(yīng)量將小幅增加16萬(wàn)桶/日，較上一份報(bào)告下調(diào)110噸/日。預(yù)計(jì)2015年歐佩克天然氣產(chǎn)量將增長(zhǎng)19萬(wàn)桶/日，2016年將增長(zhǎng)17萬(wàn)桶/日。據(jù)二級(jí)消息來(lái)源顯示，8月份，歐佩克原油平均日產(chǎn)量為3154萬(wàn)桶，大西洋盆地的產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)和煉油業(yè)務(wù)產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)喜憂參半。在駕駛季節(jié)即將結(jié)束的推動(dòng)下，看跌情緒導(dǎo)致美國(guó)煉油廠利潤(rùn)率下降，而在歐洲，利潤(rùn)率在桶中間部分復(fù)蘇后保持健康。亞洲利潤(rùn)率顯示，由于區(qū)域需求強(qiáng)勁，中間餾分油略有回升，部分緩解了對(duì)產(chǎn)品供過(guò)于求的擔(dān)憂。8月份，油輪市場(chǎng)看跌情緒主導(dǎo)臟油輪市場(chǎng)，超大型油輪、蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪的運(yùn)價(jià)較上月有所下降。運(yùn)價(jià)下降，主要是由于噸位供應(yīng)，而噸位需求仍然有限。清潔油輪平均運(yùn)價(jià)下降，主要是由于蘇伊士西部運(yùn)價(jià)下降和市場(chǎng)活動(dòng)。8月份，歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量上升至平均1220萬(wàn)桶/日，歐佩克的出海量上升至2411萬(wàn)桶/日。7月份，商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存進(jìn)一步上升，達(dá)到2925萬(wàn)桶。在這個(gè)水平上，它們比最近五年的平均水平高出202MB，原油和產(chǎn)品的asurplus分別約為163MB和39MB。就遠(yuǎn)期覆蓋天數(shù)而言，經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)庫(kù)存為63.3天，比最近五年的平均水平高出4.8天。2015年，歐佩克原油供需平衡預(yù)計(jì)為2930萬(wàn)桶/日，比上一次評(píng)估高出10萬(wàn)桶/日，比上一年增加40萬(wàn)桶/日。2016年，預(yù)計(jì)所需石油產(chǎn)量為3030萬(wàn)桶/日，比上個(gè)月的估計(jì)高出20萬(wàn)桶/日，比今年的估計(jì)水平高出約100萬(wàn)桶/日。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket fell below $50/b in August to average $45.46/b, mostlyattributed to sell-offs amid enduring oversupply and Chinese economic turbulence. Crudeoil futures plunged sharply again to multi-month lows, with ICE Brent ending at $48.21/band Nymex WTI at $42.89/b. Speculators continued to be bearish in August with net-longpositions in oil futures and options at record lows. The Brent-WTI spread narrowed about52 to $5.32/b in August.World EconomyWorld economic growth has been revised down to 3.1% for 2015 and to 3.4% for 2016.While OECD growth remains unchanged at 2.0% for 2015 and 2.1% in 2016, majoremerging economies are increasingly facing challenges. China’s and India’s growthforecasts have been revised down by 0.1 percentage points to now stand at 6.8% and6.4% for China and at 7.4% and 7.6% for India in 2015 and 2016, respectively.World Oil DemandIn 2015, world oil demand growth is expected to be around 1.46 mb/d after an upwardrevision of around 84 tb/d, mainly to reflect better-than-expected data from OECD region.In 2016, world oil demand is anticipated to rise by 1.29 mb/d after a downward revision ofaround 50 tb/d.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by 0.88 mb/d in 2015, following a downwardrevision of around 72 tb/d, due to lower-than-expected output in the US. In 2016, nonOPECoil supply is expected to increase slightly by 0.16 mb/d, a downward revision of110 tb/d from the previous report. OPEC NGLs are expected to grow by 0.19 mb/d in 2015and 0.17 mb/d in 2016. In August, OPEC crude production averaged 31.54 mb/d,according to secondary sources.Product Markets and Refining OperationsProduct markets in the Atlantic Basin showed a mixed performance. Bearish sentiment,fueled by the approaching end of the driving season, caused US refinery margins to drop,while in Europe, margins remained healthy on the back of some recovery in the middle ofthe barrel. Asian margins showed a slight recovery in middle distillates on strong regionaldemand amid some run cuts, partially easing concerns over product oversupply.Tanker MarketBearish sentiment dominated the dirty tanker market in August with freight rates forVLCCs, Suezmax and Aframax registering a drop from the previous month. Freight ratesdeclined, mainly as a result of tonnage availability while tonnage demand remains limited.Average clean tanker freight rates were down, mainly on the back of lower freight rates andmarket activity in west of Suez. In August, OPEC spot fixtures rose to average 12.20 mb/d,and OPEC sailings increased to stand at 24.11 mb/d.Stock MovementsOECD commercial oil stocks rose further in July to stand at 2,925 mb. At this level, theywere 202 mb higher than the latest five-year average, with crude and products indicating asurplus of around 163 mb and 39 mb, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover,OECD commercial stocks stood at 63.3 days, 4.8 days above the latest five-year average.Balance of Supply and DemandDemand for OPEC crude is estimated at 29.3 mb/d in 2015, 0.1 mb/d higher than theprevious assessment and up by 0.4 mb/d from the previous year. In 2016, required OPECcrude is projected at 30.3 mb/d, 0.2 mb/d higher than the previous month’s assessment,and around 1.0 mb/d above the estimated level of this year.