原油價格變動9月份，歐佩克參考價格籃子升至53.44美元/桶，為2015年7月以來的最高值。原油期貨價格也出現(xiàn)上漲，ICE布倫特原油均價高于55美元/桶，越來越多的證據(jù)表明，石油市場正在走向重新平衡。地緣政治緊張局勢和較低的餾分油庫存也推高了價格。9月份，ICE布倫特原油平均價格為55.51美元/桶，上漲3.64美元，而NYMEX WTI原油平均價格上漲1.82美元，至49.88美元/桶。對沖基金在ICE布倫特和NYMEX WTI原油期貨和期權(quán)中的凈多頭頭寸增加了近20萬份合約。截至本月底，布倫特原油合約曲線在2021年12月轉(zhuǎn)為反向供應(yīng)。糖醋價差在亞洲和歐洲顯著擴(kuò)大。世界經(jīng)濟(jì)在世界經(jīng)濟(jì)中的增長繼續(xù)改善，2017年的預(yù)測從上個月報告中的3.5%修正為3.6%。同樣，2018年的預(yù)測也從3.4%調(diào)高至3.5%。這一增長勢頭在所有經(jīng)濟(jì)體中都很明顯，特別是經(jīng)合組織（OECD），OECD在2017年增長了2.2%，2018年增長了2.1%。美國在2018年的增長率被修正為2.3%，同期的EUto為1.9%。俄羅斯也看到了2018年的上調(diào)，目前為1.6%，而上一份報告中為1.4%。印度和中國在2017年和2018年的增長預(yù)期均保持不變。2017年世界石油需求增長預(yù)計將增加150萬桶/日，較上一份報告向上修正約30噸/日，主要反映最近的數(shù)據(jù)顯示經(jīng)濟(jì)活動有所改善。積極修正的主要原因是歐洲經(jīng)合組織地區(qū)和中國的石油需求高于預(yù)期。2018年，由于世界經(jīng)濟(jì)，特別是中國和俄羅斯的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景不斷改善，世界石油需求預(yù)計將增長140萬桶/日，較上一份報告上升了30噸/日。2017年，世界石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計將增長70萬桶/日，在上次報告的基礎(chǔ)上向下修正0.1 m/bd之后。2018年，非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)的增長率下降了60 tb/d，降至90萬桶/d。2018年，歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)液體產(chǎn)量平均為650萬桶/d，增長了20萬桶/d，與當(dāng)年的增長基本一致。根據(jù)第二來源的數(shù)據(jù)，9月份，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量增加了88tb/d，達(dá)到平均3275萬桶/d。大西洋盆地的產(chǎn)品市場和煉油業(yè)務(wù)9月份進(jìn)一步改善，因為石油需求的上升支撐了石油市場的最高點(diǎn)。由于需求旺盛、庫存枯竭以及地區(qū)煉油廠的維護(hù)，全球中間餾分油市場繼續(xù)改善。然而，在亞洲和歐洲市場，低需求和高庫存水平帶來了一些壓力。預(yù)計產(chǎn)品市場將在17年第4季度從冬季燃料的健康需求中得到支持。油輪市場9月份臟船平均現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價較上月有所上升，受多條交易航線活動增強(qiáng)的支持。較高的阿芙拉型油輪運(yùn)價是該輪運(yùn)力減弱的主要驅(qū)動力，而超大型油輪和蘇伊士型油輪的平均運(yùn)價則表現(xiàn)出較低的增長。然而，油輪市場仍然受到船舶供應(yīng)過剩的影響，這往往限制了費(fèi)率的上漲。在清潔油輪市場，現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價也顯示出積極的發(fā)展，主要?dú)w因于蘇伊士西部市場的強(qiáng)勁，因為主題油輪的噸位需求增加。此外，及時的更換也進(jìn)一步支持了運(yùn)價。受冬季季節(jié)性需求的支撐，預(yù)計2007年第四季度現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價將走強(qiáng)。8月份，經(jīng)合組織（OECD）商業(yè)石油庫存下降，至2996億桶。在這個水平上，經(jīng)合組織的商業(yè)石油庫存比最近五年的平均水平高出171MB。原油和成品油庫存分別比季節(jié)性正常水平高出約146MB和25MB。從遠(yuǎn)期覆蓋天數(shù)來看，8月份石油商品庫存為63.2天，比最近五年的平均水平高出2.6天。根據(jù)當(dāng)前全球石油供需平衡，2017年歐佩克原油預(yù)計為3280萬桶/日，比2016年高出約60萬桶/日。同樣，預(yù)計2018年歐佩克原油日產(chǎn)量為3310萬桶，比2017年高出約130萬桶。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket rose to $53.44/b in September, its highest value since July 2015. Crude futuresprices also saw gains, with ICE Brent averaging above the $55/b, supported by increasing evidence that the oilmarket is heading toward rebalancing. Geopolitical tensions and lower distillates stocks also pushed prices higher.ICE Brent averaged $55.51/b in September, a gain of $3.64, while NYMEX WTI increased $1.82 to average$49.88/b. Hedge funds raised net long position in ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI futures and options by almost200,000 contracts. At the end of the month, the Brent crude contract curve had flipped into backwardation throughDecember 2021. The sweet/sour spread widened significantly in Asia and Europe.World EconomyGrowth in the world economy continues to improve, with the forecast for 2017 revised up to 3.6% from 3.5%in last month’s report. Similarly, the 2018 forecast has been adjusted higher to 3.5% from 3.4%. Theimproving momentum is visible in all economies, particularly the OECD, which is seen growing by 2.2% in2017 and by an upwardly revised 2.1% in 2018. US growth in 2018 has been revised up to 2.3% and the EUto 1.9% for the same year. Russia has also seen an upward revision for 2018 to now stand at 1.6%,compared to 1.4% in the previous report. Growth expectations for India and China were left unchanged forboth 2017 and 2018.World Oil DemandWorld oil demand growth in 2017 is now expected to increase by 1.5 mb/d, representing an upward revisionof around 30 tb/d from last previous report, mainly reflecting recent data showing an improvement ineconomic activities. Positive revisions were primarily a result of higher-than-expected oil demand from theOECD region and China. In 2018, world oil demand is anticipated to grow by 1.4 mb/d, following an upwardadjustment of 30 tb/d over the previous report, due to the improving economic outlook in the world economy,particularly China and Russia.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by 0.7 mb/d in 2017, following a downward revision of 0.1 m/bdfrom the previous report. In 2018, the growth in non-OPEC oil supply saw a downward revision of 60 tb/d tostand at 0.9 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids production are seen averaging 6.5 mb/d in2018, representing an increase of 0.2 mb/d, broadly in line with growth in the current year. In September,OPEC crude oil production increased by 88 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 32.75 mb/d.Product Markets and Refining OperationsProduct markets in the Atlantic Basin improved further in September as the top of the barrel saw support fromhigher gasoline demand. Middle distillate markets continue to improve globally on the back of healthy demand,depleted stocks and along with regional refinery maintenance. However, the bottom of the barrel in Asia andEurope saw some pressure on low demand and high inventory levels. Product markets are expected to seesupport in 4Q17 from healthy demand for winter fuels.Tanker MarketAverage dirty vessel spot freight rates rose in September, compared to the previous month, supported byenhanced activity across several trading routes. Higher Aframax rates were the main driver behind the strength insentiment, while average VLCC and Suezmax freight rates showed lesser growth. However, the tanker marketstill suffers from oversupply of ships which often cap rates gains. In the clean tanker market, spot freight ratesshowed also a positive development mostly attributed to stronger west of Suez market as tonnage demand in theMediterranean increased. Additionally, prompt replacements gave a further support to freight rates. Spot freightrates are expected to strengthen in 4Q17 supported by winter seasonal demand.Stock MovementsTotal OECD commercial oil stocks fell in August to stand at 2,996 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oilstocks are 171 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products stocks indicate a surplus ofaround 146 mb and 25 mb above the seasonal norm, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECDcommercial stocks stand at 63.2 days in August, 2.6 days higher than the latest five-year average.Balance of Supply and DemandBased on the current global oil supply/demand balance, OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 32.8 mb/d,around 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2016. Similarly, OPEC crude in 2018 is projected at 33.1 mb/d, about0.3 mb/d higher than in 2017.