石油輸出國(guó)組織（OPEC）參考價(jià)格籃子5月份暴跌8.15美元，跌幅近7%，平均約為110美元/桶。這是自2010年7月以來(lái)的首次下跌，也是自2010年5月以來(lái)的最大百分比下跌，原因是市場(chǎng)人氣看跌，引發(fā)了紙油市場(chǎng)的投資外流。WTI上月合約自3月中旬均價(jià)101.36美元/桶以來(lái)首次跌破100美元/桶，為2月89.74美元/桶以來(lái)的最低水平。ICE布倫特原油價(jià)格也大幅下跌8.67美元或7%，至114.42美元/桶。這是自去年7月以來(lái)的首次下跌。然而，中東和北非地區(qū)持續(xù)動(dòng)蕩的局勢(shì)維持了價(jià)格的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)。到目前為止，今年6月，OPECReference投資組合一直徘徊在110美元/桶左右，6月9日達(dá)到113.43美元/桶。

2011年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)仍為3.9%，但止贖權(quán)面臨的挑戰(zhàn)更加明顯。美國(guó)的預(yù)測(cè)保持在2.6%不變，盡管鑒于勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)疲軟和工業(yè)活動(dòng)放緩，發(fā)展需要密切監(jiān)控。歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率也大體保持在1.8%不變，但仍受到主權(quán)債務(wù)擔(dān)憂的嚴(yán)重影響。日本2011年第一季度的降幅遠(yuǎn)大于預(yù)期，因此，今年的預(yù)測(cè)從上月的負(fù)0.1%修正為負(fù)0.5%。雖然亞洲發(fā)展中國(guó)家的工業(yè)活動(dòng)正在減速，但預(yù)計(jì)2011年該地區(qū)對(duì)全球增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)最大，中國(guó)增長(zhǎng)9.0%，印度增長(zhǎng)8.1%。

預(yù)測(cè)2011年世界石油需求將增長(zhǎng)140萬(wàn)桶/日，前一年增長(zhǎng)210萬(wàn)桶/日。有幾個(gè)因素繼續(xù)影響全世界的石油需求。日本地震繼續(xù)影響石油需求預(yù)測(cè)。此外，美國(guó)最新月度石油數(shù)據(jù)顯示，石油消費(fèi)比預(yù)期的要弱。相比之下，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)，導(dǎo)致石油使用量增加，在一定程度上抵消了美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)乏力的影響。

非歐佩克國(guó)家的石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)在2011年將增加70萬(wàn)桶/日，較上一份報(bào)告略有上升。預(yù)計(jì)2010年非歐佩克國(guó)家的石油供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)仍保持在110萬(wàn)桶/日的水平不變。預(yù)計(jì)2011年歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油的平均供應(yīng)量為530萬(wàn)桶/日，比上一年增加了40萬(wàn)桶/日。據(jù)第二來(lái)源估計(jì)，今年5月，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量平均為2897萬(wàn)桶/日，比上月增加171噸/日。

產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)自5月中旬以來(lái)一直受到影響，原因是在駕駛季節(jié)開(kāi)始時(shí)汽油需求低于預(yù)期，以及美國(guó)汽油庫(kù)存在經(jīng)過(guò)數(shù)周的庫(kù)存平倉(cāng)后增加。然而，這一令人失望的局面已被一些地區(qū)的桶底漲幅部分抵消，使得利潤(rùn)率保持健康。展望未來(lái)，預(yù)計(jì)需求將隨著駕駛季節(jié)的開(kāi)始而改善，預(yù)計(jì)中國(guó)的發(fā)電用汽油需求將增加。這可能會(huì)鼓勵(lì)全球煉油廠運(yùn)營(yíng)量的增加，有可能增加對(duì)原油市場(chǎng)的支持。

5月份臟貨現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)漲跌互現(xiàn)，超大型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪運(yùn)價(jià)下降，蘇伊士型油輪運(yùn)價(jià)略有上升。對(duì)船舶的需求減少和高噸位可用性影響了我國(guó)的船舶費(fèi)率。清潔現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)較上月下降3.3%，主要是由于煉油廠的維護(hù)。今年5月，歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量較上月下降了7.4%，來(lái)自歐佩克的船運(yùn)量略高，抵達(dá)美國(guó)的船運(yùn)量上升了7.9%。

美國(guó)5月份的商業(yè)庫(kù)存增加了2040萬(wàn)件。建造分為成品油和原油，分別增加了1310萬(wàn)桶和730萬(wàn)桶。有了這個(gè)數(shù)字，美國(guó)商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存比歷史平均水平高出1250萬(wàn)桶。4月份最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，日本商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)1820萬(wàn)桶，其中原油和成品油分別增長(zhǎng)710萬(wàn)桶和1100萬(wàn)桶。日本石油庫(kù)存出現(xiàn)盈余，歷史趨勢(shì)為650萬(wàn)桶。

預(yù)計(jì)2010年歐佩克原油需求為2960萬(wàn)桶/日，比上一份報(bào)告高出約10萬(wàn)桶/日。經(jīng)過(guò)這一調(diào)整，歐佩克原油需求量比2009年高出約40萬(wàn)桶/日。2011年，預(yù)計(jì)歐佩克原油的需求量平均為2990萬(wàn)桶/日，較上年增加約30萬(wàn)桶/日，并較上一次評(píng)估略有調(diào)整。

? The OPEC Reference Basket plunged by $8.15 or almost 7% in May to average around $110/b.This decline – which was the first since July 2010 and the largest in percentage terms since May2010 – was attributed to bearish market sentiment, which triggered an outflow of investment fromthe paper oil market. The WTI front-month contract fell below $100/b for the first time since midMarchto average $101.36/b, the lowest since February’s $89.74/b. ICE Brent also declined sharplyby $8.67 or 7% to average $114.42/b. This represents the first drop since last July. However,continued unrest in the MENA region maintained a risk premium in prices. So far in June, the OPECReference Basket has hovered around $110/b, reaching $113.43/b on 9 June.

 ? The world economic growth forecast for 2011 remains at 3.9%, but challenges to the forecasthave become more pronounced. The US forecast remains unchanged at 2.6%, althoughdevelopments require close monitoring given the weakening labour market and slower industrialactivity. Euro-zone growth also remains broadly unchanged at 1.8%, but continues to be significantlychallenged by sovereign debt concerns. Japan experienced a much larger-than-expected decline inthe 1Q11 and, as a result, this year’s forecast has been revised to minus 0.5% from minus 0.1% lastmonth. While industrial activity is decelerating in Developing Asia, the region is still expected tocontribute the most to global growth in 2011, with China growing by 9.0% and India by 8.1%. 

? World oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2011, following growth of 2.1 mb/d in theprevious year. Several factors continue to impact oil demand worldwide. The Japanese earthquakecontinues to impact on oil demand estimates. Additionally, the latest monthly US oil data showedmuch weaker oil consumption than anticipated. In contrast, China’s economy continued to growstrongly resulting in increased oil usage, offsetting to some degree the weaker growth in the US.

 ? Non-OPEC oil supply is now projected to increase by 0.7 mb/d in 2011, following a minor upwardrevision from the last report. Estimated non-OPEC supply growth in 2010 remains unchanged at1.1 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and nonconventional oils are expected to average 5.3 mb/d in 2011, a gainof 0.4 mb/d over the previous year. In May, estimated OPEC crude oil production averaged28.97 mb/d, according to secondary sources, an increase of 171 tb/d over the previous month. 

?Product markets have been impacted since the middle of May by weaker-than-expected gasolinedemand at the start of the driving season and a stock build in US gasoline after several weeks ofinventory draws. However, this disappointing situation has been partially offset by gains at thebottom of the barrel in some regions, allowing margins to remain healthy. Looking ahead, demand isexpected to improve with the start of the driving season and expected higher gasoil demand forpower generation in China. This could encourage an increase in refinery runs across the globe,potentially adding support to the crude market. 

? Dirty spot freight rates were mixed in May with VLCC and Aframax rates decreasing, while Suezmaxrates increased slightly. Lower demand for vessels and high tonnage availability affected rates inMay. Clean spot freight rates decreased by 3.3% over the previous month, mainly due to refinerymaintenance. In May, OPEC spot fixtures decreased by 7.4% compared to the previous month.Sailings from OPEC were marginally higher and arrivals in the US gained 7.9%. 

? US commercial inventories rose 20.4 mb in May. The build was divided between products andcrude which increased by 13.1 mb and 7.3 mb respectively. With this build, US commercial oilinventories stood at 12.5 mb above the historical average. The most recent data for April shows thatcommercial oil inventories in Japan rose strongly by 18.2 mb, with crude and products showing anincrease of 7.1 mb and 11.0 mb respectively. Japanese oil inventories showed a surplus with thehistorical trend at 6.5 mb. 

?The demand for OPEC crude in 2010 is estimated at 29.6 mb/d, around 0.1 mb/d higher than theprevious report. With this adjustment, the demand for OPEC crude stood at about 0.4 mb/d higherthan 2009 level. In 2011, the demand from OPEC crude is expected to average 29.9 mb/d,representing an increase of about 0.3 mb/d from the previous year and a slight adjustment over theprevious assessment.