與上月相比，石油輸出國組織（OPEC）的一籃子參考原油價格大幅上漲6.76美元/桶，漲幅10%，8月份達(dá)到71.35美元/桶。8月份，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)信號改善，加上庫存減少，為市場情緒提供了支撐，尤其是本月下旬。然而，美元兌主要貨幣的波動和股市波動，以及獲利了結(jié)的技術(shù)性拋售，限制了價格保持在70美元/桶左右的上升趨勢。盡管基本面依然疲弱，但在經(jīng)濟(jì)情緒沒有發(fā)生重大轉(zhuǎn)變的情況下，當(dāng)前的市場情況可能會持續(xù)下去。9月14日，一攬子價格平均為66.47美元/桶。2009年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)測修正為負(fù)1.2%，2010年修正為2.5%，上調(diào)0.2個百分點。這些調(diào)整主要是由于第二季度全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長數(shù)據(jù)在財政和貨幣刺激的支持下有所改善。經(jīng)合組織目前預(yù)計2009年將下降-3.6%，此前為-3.9%，2010年將恢復(fù)0.9%的正增長，隨后上調(diào)0.7%。歐元區(qū)出現(xiàn)了主要的調(diào)整，德國和法國在第二季度都轉(zhuǎn)為正增長。在發(fā)展中國家，中國2009年的增長率從7.2%提高到7.5%。2010年，發(fā)展中亞洲仍將是主要增長地區(qū)。2009年世界石油需求預(yù)計將萎縮160萬桶/日至8410萬桶/日。2010年，全球需求預(yù)計將在連續(xù)兩年下降后恢復(fù)增長，增長50萬桶/日至8460萬桶/日。這兩個數(shù)字與上一份報告持平。鑒于美國消費的顯著改善，預(yù)計8月份經(jīng)合組織石油需求僅下降90萬桶/日，高于上個月的-180萬桶/日，而非經(jīng)合組織石油需求預(yù)計將小幅上升70萬桶/日。2010年，隨著美國消費恢復(fù)正數(shù)，經(jīng)合組織石油需求預(yù)計將小幅收縮30萬桶/日。明年的需求增長預(yù)計將由中國以30萬桶/日的速度放緩，其次是中東和印度，分別以20萬桶/日和10萬桶/日的速度增長。2009年，非歐佩克國家的石油供應(yīng)量預(yù)計平均為5080萬桶/日，比上一年增加340噸/日，表明較上一次評估增加了70噸/日。2010年，非歐佩克國家的石油供應(yīng)量預(yù)計將達(dá)到5120萬桶/日，比上一年增長420噸/日。預(yù)計2009年歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)天然氣的平均日產(chǎn)量為470萬桶，2010年為530萬桶。8月份，歐佩克的產(chǎn)量為2880萬桶/日，較上月增加約10萬桶/日。充足的餾分油庫存抑制了產(chǎn)品市場的人氣，并掩蓋了8月份其他桶組件的積極發(fā)展。隨著駕駛季節(jié)的結(jié)束和最近幾周汽油裂縫的放緩，煉油廠經(jīng)濟(jì)有可能在不久的將來繼續(xù)下滑，從而鼓勵煉油廠進(jìn)一步削減產(chǎn)量。這種情況，加上秋季開始的維護(hù)計劃和對蒸餾油的持續(xù)看跌情緒，將不足以支撐原油市場。8月份，歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量比上月增加了4%。隨著歐洲和遠(yuǎn)東的抵達(dá)，歐佩克的航班相對穩(wěn)定，而北美的航班則略高。與上月相比，8月份原油油輪市場的運費平均上漲了2%。8月份，隨著原油期貨合約結(jié)構(gòu)的收窄，浮動儲油量穩(wěn)步走低。然而，由于油輪上的燃油積聚，浮式儲油的產(chǎn)品增加了。美國商業(yè)石油庫存自2008年第三季度末以來首次下降，下降2230萬桶。盡管有所下降，但過剩量仍保持在約80MB，其中原油和餾分油各占約30MB。在歐洲（歐盟15國加上挪威），8月份石油庫存總量增加了550萬桶，達(dá)到1142萬桶，仍高于五年平均水平1300萬桶。在日本，商業(yè)石油庫存跟隨季節(jié)性趨勢，7月份增長了550萬桶，其中產(chǎn)品占總量的75%。初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，石油輸出國組織（OPEC）8月份的原油需求量將進(jìn)一步增加，2009年的平均需求量預(yù)計為2850萬桶/日，與上一份報告持平，同比下降230萬桶/日。2010年，歐佩克原油的平均需求量預(yù)計為2810萬桶/日，較上一次評估上升約8萬桶/日，降幅為50萬桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket surged by a significant $6.76/b or 10% compared to the previousmonth to reach $71.35/b in August. A combination of improving economic signals along with crudestockdraws in the US provided support for market sentiment in August, particularly in the latter partof the month. However, US-dollar movement against major currencies and equity market volatility,along with technical sell-offs for profit-taking, capped the upward trend keeping prices around $70/b.Although fundamentals remain weak, in the absence of a major shift in economic sentiment, currentmarket circumstances are likely to persist. The Basket price averaged $66.47/b on 14 September. The forecast for world economic growth in 2009 was revised up by 0.2 percentage points (pp) tonow stand at minus 1.2%, while 2010 was revised up by 0.1 pp to 2.5%. These adjustments weremainly due to an improvement in the global growth numbers for the second quarter supported by thefiscal and monetary stimulus. OECD is now expected to decline by minus 3.6% in 2009, comparedto a previous minus 3.9%, before returning to positive growth of 0.9% in 2010, following an upwardrevision of 0.7%. The main revisions were seen in the Euro-zone, where both Germany and Francereturned to positive growth in the second quarter. Within the Developing Countries, China has beenrevised up for 2009 from 7.2% to 7.5%. Developing Asia will remain the main growth region in 2010. World oil demand in 2009 is expected to contract by 1.6 mb/d to 84.1 mb/d. In 2010, globaldemand is forecast to return to growth following two years of consecutive declines, increasing0.5 mb/d to stand at 84.6 mb/d. Both figures are unchanged from the previous report. Given thesignificant improvement in US consumption, OECD oil demand in August is forecast to decline byonly 0.9 mb/d, up from a minus 1.8 mb/d in the previous month, while non-OECD demand isforecast to inch up by 0.7 mb/d. In 2010, OECD oil demand is forecast to see a smaller contractionof 0.3 mb/d as US consumption returns to positive. Demand growth next year is expected to be ledby China with 0.3 mb/d followed by Middle East and India with 0.2 mb/d and 0.1 mb/d respectively. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2009 is expected to average 50.8 mb/d, representing an increase of340 tb/d over the previous year, indicating an upward revision of 70 tb/d from the last assessment. In2010, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to reach 51.2 mb/d, representing growth of 420 tb/d over theprevious year. OPEC NGLs and non-conventionals are expected to average 4.7 mb/d in 2009 and5.3 mb/d in 2010. In August, OPEC production stood at 28.8 mb/d, an increase of around 0.1 mb/dover the previous month. Ample distillate stocks have dampened sentiment in the products market and overshadowedpositive developments in other barrel components in August. With the end of the driving season andslowing gasoline cracks in recent weeks, there is a risk that refinery economics will continue to loseground in the near future, encouraging refiners to further trim runs. This situation, along with the startof autumn maintenance schedules and persisting bearish sentiment for distillates, would not besufficient to support the crude market. OPEC spot fixtures increased in August by 4% compared to the previous month. Sailings fromOPEC were relatively steady along with arrivals in Europe and the Far East, while arrivals in NorthAmerica were marginally higher. Freight rates in the crude oil tanker market increased by a marginof 2% on average in August compared to the previous month. Volumes of crude oil in floatingstorage were steady to lower in August with the narrowing of the contango structure in crude oilfutures. However, products in floating storage increased due to a buildup of fuel oil on tankers. US commercial oil stocks dropped for the first time since the end of the third quarter 2008,declining by 22.3 mb. Despite this decline, the overhang remained at around 80 mb with crude oiland distillates accounting for around 30 mb each. In Europe (EU-15 plus Norway), total oilinventories increased 5.5 mb in August to stand at 1,142 mb and remained 13 mb above the fiveyearaverage. In Japan, commercial oil stocks followed the seasonal trend and rose 5.5 mb in Julywith products accounting for 75% of the build. Preliminary data points to a further build in August.The demand of OPEC crude oil in 2009 is estimated to average 28.5 mb/d, unchanged from theprevious report and representing a decline of 2.3 mb/d from the previous year. In 2010, demand forOPEC crude is expected to average 28.1 mb/d, an upward revision of around 80,000 b/d from theprevious assessment and representing a drop of 0.5 mb/d.