石油輸出國組織（OPEC）10月份的參考價格籃子自創(chuàng)紀錄的13%暴跌以來首次下跌，下跌2.31美元，至108.36美元/桶。供應增長增加和對全球經(jīng)濟健康狀況的擔憂使油價自9月中旬以來持續(xù)下跌。由于對全球經(jīng)濟放緩、未來需求前景悲觀以及美國原油庫存大幅增加的擔憂超過了由于地緣政治因素引起的供應擔憂，下行壓力持續(xù)。此外，投機者繼續(xù)從上季度的創(chuàng)紀錄高位減少凈多頭頭寸。凈值清算的同時，價格也大幅下跌，證實了對沖基金頭寸與原油價格之間的聯(lián)系。11月8日，這一籃子貨幣為104.58美元/桶。2012年和2013年，全球增長預期分別為3.1%和3.2%。據(jù)預測，美國2012年和2013年將分別增長2.2%和2.0%；日本將從今年的2.2%降至2013年的1.1%；歐元區(qū)在2012年收縮0.5%后，明年將恢復0.1%的增長幅度。中國今年的增長預期分別為7.6%和8.0%，印度2012年和2013年的增長預期分別為5.7%和6.6%。2012年世界石油需求增長預計為80萬桶/日。預計颶風桑迪將在10月底和11月初減少美國石油需求。年底的寒冷天氣可能不僅會給美國，也會給歐洲的石油供暖帶來壓力。這可能會在第四季度略微增加石油需求。此外，由于經(jīng)濟活動放緩，交通運輸部門在夏季石油使用高峰期造成了石油使用量的下降。據(jù)預測，2013年世界石油需求將繼續(xù)增長，達到80萬桶/日。預計世界經(jīng)濟疲軟將給世界石油需求預測帶來相當大的不確定性。預計2012年非歐佩克石油供應將增加50萬桶/日，較上一份報告向下修正約50噸/日。2013年，非歐佩克石油供應預計將增長90萬桶/日，與之前的預測一致。預計美國、加拿大、南蘇丹和蘇丹、巴西、澳大利亞、哈薩克斯坦和俄羅斯將成為明年經(jīng)濟增長的主要貢獻者，而EMEXICO、挪威和英國預計將出現(xiàn)最大跌幅。據(jù)估計，2013年，歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油的平均產(chǎn)量為600萬桶/日，比本年度增長240噸/日。二級消息來源顯示，10月份，歐佩克原油平均日產(chǎn)量3095萬桶，較上月略有下降；10月份，產(chǎn)品市場表現(xiàn)喜憂參半。中間餾分油在冬季來臨前市場人氣趨緊，繼續(xù)在全球范圍內(nèi)表現(xiàn)強勁。相比之下，在冬季結(jié)束時，大西洋盆地的汽油市場出現(xiàn)了大幅下滑。這一點，加上桶底的虧損，導致全球煉油廠利潤率下降。在油輪市場上，10月份波瀾不驚，總體上表現(xiàn)低迷。超大型油輪的噸位需求和運價有所下降，蘇伊士型油輪的噸位需求和運價略有上升，而弗拉馬克斯型油輪的噸位需求和運價保持平穩(wěn)。10月份，歐佩克的出海量略有下降，平均為2371萬桶/日。北美的出海量下降，而歐洲、遠東和西亞的出海量上升。10月份，全球和歐佩克斯波特固定裝置分別較上月增加60萬桶/日和30萬桶/日。初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)石油總庫存與9月份的上月相比基本保持不變。庫存比五年平均水平高出600萬桶，但各組成部分的情況有所不同，因為商業(yè)原油庫存顯示出3200萬桶的盈余，而產(chǎn)品庫存則顯示出2600萬桶的赤字。在遠期覆蓋的天數(shù)中，截至9月底，oecd商業(yè)庫存為58.9天，比5年平均水平高出近2天。最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國10月份商業(yè)石油庫存總量下降320萬桶，盡管仍比5年平均水平高出4200萬桶，比一年前高出3400萬桶。這一下降歸因于產(chǎn)品價格下跌1160萬英鎊，而原油庫存則上漲840萬英鎊。2012年歐佩克原油需求與之前的評估值3010萬英鎊/日持平，與上一年相比下降了10萬英鎊/日。據(jù)預測，2013年石油需求平均為2970萬桶/日，比今年下降了40萬桶/日，比上一份報告下降了10萬桶/日。

?The OPEC Reference Basket dropped in October for the first time since the record 13% plunge inJune, falling $2.31 to stand at $108.36/b. Higher supply growth and concerns regarding the health ofthe global economy have left oil prices on a steady decline since mid-September. The downwardpressure sustained as mounting concerns of a global economic slowdown, a pessimistic futuredemand outlook and significant crude stockbuilds in the US outweighed supply concerns due togeopolitical factors. Moreover, speculators continue to reduce net long positions from record-highlevels seen during the last quarter. The liquidation in net length coincided with a significant downturnin prices, confirming the link between hedge fund positions and crude oil prices. On 8 November, theBasket stood at $104.58/b.?Global growth expectations are unchanged at 3.1% for 2012 and 3.2% for 2013. The US isforecast to grow by 2.2% in 2012 and 2.0% in 2013; Japan is expected to decelerate from 2.2% thisyear to 1.1% in 2013; and the Euro-zone to return to growth in the coming year at the magnitude of0.1% following a contraction of 0.5% in 2012. Growth expectations this year for China stand at 7.6%and at 8.0% in 2013, while India’s expansion is forecast at 5.7% in 2012 and 6.6% in 2013.?World oil demand growth in 2012 is estimated at 0.8 mb/d. The impact of Hurricane Sandy isexpected to reduce US oil demand in late October and early November. Year-end cold weathermight put pressure on heating oil not only in the US but in Europe as well. This could increase oildemand marginally in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, the transportation sector contributed to theslowdown in oil use in its peak summer season as a result of slower economic activities. World oildemand is forecast to continue its growth during 2013 to reach 0.8 mb/d. Expected weakness in theworld economy is placing a considerable amount of uncertainty on the world oil demand forecast.?Non-OPEC supply in 2012 is forecast to increase by 0.5 mb/d, representing a downward revision ofaround 50 tb/d from the previous report. In 2013, non-OPEC supply is forecast to grow by 0.9 mb/d,in line with the previous forecast. The US, Canada, South Sudan and Sudan, Brazil, Australia,Kazakhstan and Russia are expected to be the main contributors to next year’s growth, whileMexico, Norway, and the UK are anticipated to see the largest declines. OPEC NGLs and nonconventionaloils are estimated to average 6.0 mb/d in 2013, indicating growth of 240 tb/d over thecurrent year. In October, OPEC crude production averaged 30.95 mb/d, a minor decrease over theprevious month, according to secondary sources.?Product markets showed a mixed performance in October. Middle distillates continued to showstrength worldwide on the back of tightening sentiment for that product ahead of the winter season.In contrast, the gasoline market experienced a sharp decline in the Atlantic Basin at the end of thedriving season. This, along with the loss in the bottom of the barrel, caused refinery margins to fallworldwide.? In the tanker market, October was uneventful with low activity in general. Tonnage demand andfreight rates decreased for VLCCs, while slightly increasing for Suezmax and remaining flat forAframax. Sailings from OPEC declined slightly in October to average 23.71 mb/d. Arrivals in NorthAmerica dropped, while arrivals in Europe, the Far East and West Asia rose. Both global and OPECspot fixtures increased in October from the previous month by 0.6 mb/d and 0.3 mb/d, respectively.?Preliminary data shows that total OECD commercial oil inventories remained broadly unchangedfrom the previous month in September. Inventories stood at 6 mb above the five-year average.However, the picture differs within the components as commercial crude stocks showed a surplus of32 mb, while product stocks indicated a deficit of 26 mb. In days of forward cover, OECDcommercial stocks stood at 58.9 days at the end of September, almost 2 days over the five-yearaverage. The latest data shows US total commercial oil stocks fell 3.2 mb in October, although stillrepresenting surpluses of 42 mb over the five-year average and 34 mb above a year ago. The dropwas attributed to products which fell by 11.6 mb, while crude oil stocks rose 8.4 mb.?Demand for OPEC crude for 2012 remains unchanged from the previous assessment at30.1 mb/d, representing a decline of 0.1 mb/d compared to the previous year. Demand for OPECcrude in 2013 is forecast to average 29.7 mb/d, representing a drop of 0.4 mb/d from the currentyear and a downward adjustment of 0.1 mb/d from the previous report.