8月份，歐佩克的參考價格下降了5.30美元或4.7%，這是自2010年5月以來百分比下降幅度最大的一次。該籃子仍不穩(wěn)定，波動在101.20美元/桶至113.17美元/桶之間。由于持續(xù)的經(jīng)濟和信貸擔憂，價格在8月初經(jīng)歷了大幅下跌。然而，市場在月中旬趨于穩(wěn)定，隨后在inNorth海上供應中斷和美國海灣風暴的支撐下走高。原油期貨市場同樣波動，紐約商品交易所（Nymex）8月份前7個交易日暴跌近11美元，至10個月低點79.30美元/桶。同期，ICE布倫特原油期貨價格下跌14美元，至102.57美元/桶。截至本月底，兩個合約價格分別回升至略低于89美元/桶和115美元/桶。9月9日，石油輸出國組織（OPEC）的一籃子參考數(shù)據(jù)為110.40美元/桶。目前，預計2011年和2012年世界經(jīng)濟將分別以3.6%和3.9%的修正增長率增長，低于此前3.7%和4.0%的預期。大多數(shù)主要經(jīng)濟體的全球工業(yè)活動放緩引發(fā)了修正。美國目前預計2011年和2012年分別增長1.6%和1.9%。歐元區(qū)目前預計2011年和2012年分別增長1.7%和1.1%，第二季度的表現(xiàn)低于預期。日本經(jīng)濟仍在遭受3月份悲慘事件的折磨，預計2011年將收縮0.8%，2012年將擴張2.5%。發(fā)展中國家的經(jīng)濟增長水平繼續(xù)保持自己的水平，中國的經(jīng)濟增長預期在2011年和2012年分別為9.0%和8.5%。然而，印度的擴張已經(jīng)放緩，導致2011年預測略微下調(diào)至7.7%。2011年世界石油需求增長已下調(diào)0.15百萬桶/日，目前為110百萬桶/日。下調(diào)的原因是美國的駕駛季節(jié)低于預期，而經(jīng)合組織的經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn)持續(xù)低迷。第三季度，中國的石油需求也比預期的要少。持續(xù)的經(jīng)濟不確定性也影響了2012年石油需求增長的預測，2012年的預測略低，目前為130萬桶/日。2011年，非歐佩克石油供應預計將增長50萬桶/日，自上次評估以來，該預測下調(diào)了80 tb/日，主要是由于FSU的修訂，發(fā)展中國家和中國。2012年，非歐佩克石油供應量預計將增長80萬桶/日。2011年，歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油的平均供應量預計為530萬桶/日，2012年為570萬桶/日，這兩年的增長率均為40萬桶/日。8月份，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量為2992萬桶/日，較上月增加75噸/日。隨著驅(qū)動季節(jié)的結束，產(chǎn)品市場繼續(xù)受到大西洋盆地令人失望的需求的影響。然而，颶風“艾琳”造成的短缺和對拉丁美洲出口機會的增加部分抵消了看跌情緒。這為利潤率提供了一定的支撐，利潤率也得益于原油價格的下跌。由于可用噸位高、需求有限和煉油廠維護，看跌情緒繼續(xù)主導原油油輪市場。清潔油輪運價在健康的東向產(chǎn)品需求的支持下略有上升。8月份，歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應量下降了800 tb/d，平均為1245 mb/d，為5月份以來的最低水平。來自歐佩克國家的航運量下降了1%，平均為2258萬桶/日。8月份，美國商業(yè)庫存略微增加了30萬桶。建造的石油產(chǎn)品增加了220萬桶，而原油減少了190萬桶，抵消了這一增長。因此，8月份美國商業(yè)石油庫存比歷史平均水平高出1920萬桶。在日本，最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，7月份商業(yè)石油庫存增加了170萬桶，其中原油和成品油分別增加了110萬桶和70萬桶。日本石油庫存顯示出850萬桶的歷史趨勢。2011年，歐佩克原油的需求量估計為2990萬桶/日，比上一份報告低約10萬桶/日。經(jīng)過這一調(diào)整，歐佩克原油需求在前一年達到約20萬桶/日的高位。2012年，預計歐佩克原油的需求量平均為3000萬桶/日，比2011年增加了10萬桶/日，比上一次評估時減少了10萬桶/日。

? The OPEC Reference Basket fell $5.30 or 4.7% in August, the sharpest decline in percentageterms since May 2010. The Basket remained volatile, fluctuating between $101.20/b and $113.17/b.Prices experienced a sharp fall at the start of August on persistent economic and credit concerns.However, the market stabilized by mid-month and then moved higher, supported by disruptions inNorth Sea supply and US Gulf storms. Crude futures markets were similarly volatile with Nymex WTIplunging almost $11 over the first seven trading days in August to a 10-month low of $79.30/b. Overthe same period, ICE Brent shed $14 to stand at 102.57/b. By the end of the month, both contractshad recovered to just below $89/b and $115/b, respectively. On 9 September, the OPEC ReferenceBasket stood at $110.40/b.? World economy is now expected to grow at a revised 3.6% in 2011 and 3.9% in 2012, down fromprevious expectations of 3.7% and 4.0% respectively. Revisions were triggered by a global slowdownin industrial activity in most of the major economies. The US is now forecast to grow at 1.6% in2011 and 1.9% in 2012. The Euro-zone is now expected to expand by 1.7% in 2011 and 1.1% in2012, following poorer-than-expected performance in the second quarter. Japan’s economy is stillsuffering from the tragic events in March and is expected to contract by 0.8% in 2011 beforeexpanding by 2.5% in 2012. Growth levels in the developing countries continue to be in a league oftheir own, with the forecast for China unchanged at 9.0% in 2011 and 8.5% in 2012. However,Indian’s expansion has slowed, resulting in a slight downward revision in the 2011 forecast to 7.7%.? World oil demand growth in 2011 has been revised down by 0.15 mb/d to now stand at 1.1 mb/d.The downward adjustment has been due to a weaker-than-expected driving season in the US andthe ongoing sluggish economic performance in the OECD. Oil demand in China has also beenweaker than expected in the typically peak-demand third quarter. Ongoing economic uncertaintieshave also impacted the forecast for oil demand growth in 2012, which has been revised marginallylower to now stand at 1.3 mb/d.? Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by 0.5 mb/d in 2011, following a downward revision of80 tb/d since the last assessment, mainly due to revisions in the FSU, developing countries andChina. In 2012, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to grow by 0.8 mb/d. OPEC NGLs andnon-conventional oils are expected to average 5.3 mb/d in 2011 and 5.7 mb/d in 2012, representinggrowth of 0.4 mb/d for both years. In August, OPEC crude oil production stood at 29.92 mb/d,representing an increase of 75 tb/d from the previous month.? With the end of the driving season, product markets continue to be impacted by disappointingdemand in the Atlantic Basin. However, the bearish sentiment was partially offset by the shortagegenerated by Hurricane Irene and increased export opportunities to Latin America. This hasprovided some support for margins, which have also benefitted from the fall in the crude prices inAugust.? Bearish sentiments continued to dominate the crude oil tanker market, due to high tonnageavailability, limited demand and refinery maintenance. Clean tanker rates increased slightly inAugust on support from healthy eastbound product demand. In August, OPEC spot fixtures declined800 tb/d to average 12.45 mb/d, the lowest since May. Sailings from OPEC countries were down 1%to average 22.58 mb/d.? US commercial inventories rose a slight 0.3 mb in August. The build was attributed to products,which increased by 2.2 mb, while crude offset the increase with a decline of 1.9 mb. As a result, UScommercial oil inventories were 19.2 mb above the historical average in August. In Japan, the mostrecent data shows that commercial oil inventories rose by 1.7 mb in July, with crude and productsexperiencing an increase of 1.1 mb and 0.7 mb respectively. Japanese oil inventories showed adeficit of 8.5 mb with the historical trend.? The demand for OPEC crude in 2011 is estimated at 29.9 mb/d, around 0.1 mb/d lower than in theprevious report. With this adjustment, the demand for OPEC crude stood at about 0.2 mb/d higherthan in the previous year. In 2012, the demand from OPEC crude is expected to average 30 mb/d,up 0.1 mb/d from 2011 and 0.1 mb/d lower than in the previous assessment.