9月份，歐佩克參考價格在102-112美元/桶的大范圍內(nèi)波動，因為市場情緒主要受全球經(jīng)濟不確定性的影響，特別是歐元區(qū)的不確定性。然而，對全球經(jīng)濟增長速度的擔(dān)憂加劇，使得歐佩克參考價格在10月初跌至100美元/桶以下。在經(jīng)濟前景惡化和美元走強的背景下，期貨價格進一步下跌。紐約商品交易所（Nymex）WTI前一個月的股價在9月份跌至一個月低點，在10月份的第一周跌至76美元/桶以下。同樣，在10月初，冰面布倫特原油期貨價格進一步下跌，自1月底以來首次跌破100美元/桶。10月10日，歐佩克參考價格為104.67美元/桶。2011年世界經(jīng)濟增長率保持不變，為3.6%，2012年已下調(diào)至3.7%。至少目前，全球產(chǎn)出的減速似乎已經(jīng)趨于穩(wěn)定，盡管仍有許多國家，特別是歐元區(qū)國家。預(yù)計美國2011年和2012年的增長率分別為1.6%和1.8%。歐元區(qū)目前預(yù)計2011年將增長1.6%，但2012年僅增長0.8%。日本經(jīng)濟在2011年萎縮0.8%后，預(yù)計2012年將恢復(fù)2.4%。然而，復(fù)蘇的幅度仍不確定。發(fā)展中國家的增長水平仍然相對較高，盡管政策措施的減速效應(yīng)已經(jīng)開始產(chǎn)生影響。盡管中國2011年和2012年的增長率分別保持在9.0%和8.5%不變，但印度2011年和2012年的預(yù)測值均已下調(diào)至7.6%。世界石油需求增長率已下調(diào)18萬桶/日，以顯示2011年的增長率為90萬桶/日。世界經(jīng)濟的不確定性使2011年的前景黯淡，特別是在歐洲共同體地區(qū)。由于新的政府政策旨在減少運輸燃料的使用，中國的石油需求必然會出現(xiàn)不確定性。預(yù)計印度零售價格的上漲將在明年抑制石油消費方面發(fā)揮主要作用。由于經(jīng)濟前景疲軟，2012年世界石油需求增長預(yù)測已下調(diào)至120萬桶/日。2011年非歐佩克國家石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計將增加40萬桶/日，此前一個月下調(diào)了16萬桶/日，主要原因是加拿大、英國、巴西的石油供應(yīng)低于預(yù)期，還有阿塞拜疆。2012年，在巴西、加拿大、哥倫比亞和美國的預(yù)期增長的支持下，非歐佩克國家的石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計將增長80萬桶/日，高于上一份報告。2012年，歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油產(chǎn)量預(yù)計將增加40萬桶/日，與今年的增長保持一致。根據(jù)第二來源的數(shù)據(jù)，9月份，歐佩克原油總產(chǎn)量平均為2990萬桶/日，比上個月減少了77噸/日。產(chǎn)品市場人氣轉(zhuǎn)為看跌，抹去了前幾個月的復(fù)蘇，產(chǎn)品利潤率暴跌。大西洋盆地整個駕駛季需求疲弱，對歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的擔(dān)憂再度升溫，有助于抑制市場情緒。9月份，大西洋盆地的煉油廠利潤率急劇下降3美元/桶。原油油輪市場依然疲軟，超大型油輪、蘇伊士型油輪和法拉馬型油輪的現(xiàn)貨運價分別下降了5%、3%和8%，原因是噸位供應(yīng)增加和預(yù)期需求降低。由于噸位供應(yīng)過剩、噸位要求降低和套利有限，9月份蘇伊士以東和以西清潔現(xiàn)貨運價分別下降3%和2%。9月份，歐佩克石油產(chǎn)量增加了40萬桶/日，至平均1150萬桶/日，主要來自中東地區(qū)。歐佩克的航行量幾乎保持穩(wěn)定，僅略有增加。9月份，美國商業(yè)石油庫存減少了1340萬桶。這一下降完全歸因于原油價格下跌了1680萬英鎊，而產(chǎn)品庫存上升了340萬英鎊。盡管有所下降，但美國商業(yè)石油庫存總量與五年平均水平基本持平。在日本，8月份最新的月度數(shù)據(jù)顯示，商業(yè)石油庫存下降了140萬桶。原油需求下降690萬桶，成品油庫存增加550萬桶。2011年，歐佩克原油需求估計為2990萬桶/日，與之前的評估持平，比去年增加約10萬桶/日。2012年，對歐佩克原油的需求預(yù)計將達到平均2990萬桶/日，與上一份報告相比，下降了10萬桶/日，今年沒有增長。

? The OPEC Reference Basket moved within a wide range of $102-$112/b in September as marketsentiment was dominated by economic uncertainties around the globe, particularly in the Euro-zone.However, increasing concerns about the pace of global economic growth pushed the OPECReference Basket below $100/b in early October. Futures prices declined further amid adeteriorating economic outlook and stronger US dollar. The Nymex WTI front-month fell to aten-month low in September and dropped below $76/b in the first week of October. Similarly, in earlyOctober, the ICE Brent front-month weakened further to settle below $100/b, for the first time sincethe end of January. On 10 October, the OPEC Reference Basket stood at $104.67/b.? World economic growth remains unchanged at 3.6% in 2011 and has been revised down to 3.7%in 2012. At least for now, the deceleration of global output seems to have stabilized, although manyrisks remain, particularly in the Euro-zone. The US is forecast to grow at 1.6% in 2011 and at 1.8%in 2012. The Euro-zone is now expected to expand by 1.6% in 2011, but by only 0.8% in 2012.Japan’s economy is expected to recover by 2.4% in 2012, after a contraction of 0.8% in 2011.However, the magnitude of the recovery remains uncertain. Growth levels in the developingcountries remain relatively high, although a slow-down effect from the policy measures has startedto have an impact. While China remains unchanged at 9.0% for 2011 and 8.5% for 2012, India’sforecast has been revised lower to 7.6% for both 2011 and 2012.? World oil demand growth has been revised down by 0.18 mb/d to show growth of 0.9 mb/d in2011. Uncertainty in the world economy has dimmed the picture for 2011, particularly in theOECD region. Chinese oil demand is bound to uncertainty because of new government policiesaimed at reducing transport fuel use. India’s increase in retail prices is expected to play a majorrole in dampening oil consumption in the coming year. Due to the weakening economic outlook,the forecast for world oil demand growth in 2012 has been revised down to stand at 1.2 mb/d.? Non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to increase by 0.4 mb/d in 2011, following a downwardrevision of 0.16 mb/d from the previous month, mainly due to lower-than-expected supply fromCanada, the UK, Brazil, and Azerbaijan. In 2012, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by0.8 mb/d, higher than in the previous report, supported by anticipated growth in Brazil, Canada,Colombia, and the US. OPEC NGLs and nonconventional oils are expected to increase by0.4 mb/d in 2012, in line with the current year’s growth. In September, total OPEC crude oilproduction averaged 29.90 mb/d according to secondary sources, representing a decrease of77 tb/d over the previous month.? Sentiment in the product markets turned bearish, erasing the recovery of the previous months asproduct margins plummeted. Weaker demand throughout the driving season in the Atlantic basinand renewed concerns about economic developments in the Euro-zone helped to dampen marketsentiment. In September, refinery margins showed a sharp drop of $3/b in the Atlantic basin.? The crude oil tanker market remained weak with spot freight rates for VLCCs, Suezmax andAframax declining 5%, 3% and 8% respectively, as a result of higher tonnage supply and lowerthan-expecteddemand. Both East and West of Suez clean spot freight rates decline by 3% and 2%in September due to tonnage oversupply, lower tonnage requirements and limited arbitrage. OPECspot fixtures increased 0.4 mb/d in September to average 11.5 mb/d mainly from the Middle East.OPEC sailings remained nearly steady with only a minor increase.? US commercial oil inventories fell by 13.4 mb in September. This drop was attributed solely tocrude, which declined by 16.8 mb, while product inventories rose 3.4 mb. Despite the draw, total UScommercial oil inventories stood broadly in line with the five-year average. In Japan, the most recentmonthly data for August shows that commercial oil inventories fell by 1.4 mb. The draw wasattributed to a 6.9 mb decline in crude, as product stocks rose 5.5 mb.? The demand for OPEC crude in 2011 is estimated at 29.9 mb/d, unchanged from the previousassessment and around 0.1 mb/d higher than last year. In 2012, the demand for OPEC crude isprojected to average 29.9 mb/d, representing a downward revision of 0.1 mb/d compared to theprevious report and no growth over the current year.