原油價(jià)格變動(dòng)10月份，歐佩克參考價(jià)格籃子上漲4.98美元，至平均47.87美元/桶。ICE布倫特和NYMEX WTI也分別上漲4.15美元和4.71美元，至平均51.39美元/桶和49.94美元/桶。由于美國(guó)石油庫(kù)存水平下降，以及有關(guān)推動(dòng)市場(chǎng)重新平衡的討論，油價(jià)上漲。然而，油價(jià)受到美國(guó)石油鉆井平臺(tái)數(shù)量增加、美元走強(qiáng)和獲利回吐的壓力。ICE布倫特紐約商品交易所WTI指數(shù)收窄至1.45美元/桶，鼓勵(lì)美國(guó)進(jìn)口布倫特相關(guān)品級(jí)。今年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)保持不變，為2.9%，2017年為3.1%。經(jīng)合組織對(duì)2016年和2017年的預(yù)測(cè)也分別保持在1.6%和1.7%，盡管歐元區(qū)今年和明年的增長(zhǎng)率分別被修正為1.6%和1.3%。對(duì)中國(guó)的預(yù)測(cè)在2016年和2017年分別上調(diào)至6.7%和6.2%，而印度今年和明年的增長(zhǎng)率分別保持在7.5%和7.2%不變。預(yù)計(jì)俄羅斯在2017年將實(shí)現(xiàn)0.8%的強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇，而今年則為0.6%。巴西在今年增長(zhǎng)3.4%后，2017年的增長(zhǎng)率保持在0.4%不變。世界石油需求預(yù)計(jì)在2016年將增長(zhǎng)123萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到平均9440萬(wàn)桶/日。這是由于拉丁美洲和中東的表現(xiàn)低于預(yù)期而進(jìn)行的邊際下調(diào)，這幾乎完全被經(jīng)合組織（OECD）歐洲和亞太經(jīng)合組織（AsiaPacific）公布的好于預(yù)期的石油需求增長(zhǎng)數(shù)據(jù)所抵消。2017年，世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)率為115萬(wàn)桶/日，從10月份的最高原油需求量（MOMR）到平均95.55萬(wàn)桶/日沒有變化。繼10月份的最高原油需求量（MOMR）到平均56.20萬(wàn)桶/日后，預(yù)計(jì)2016年歐佩克的世界石油供應(yīng)量將收縮0.78萬(wàn)桶/日，非歐佩克國(guó)家的天然氣供應(yīng)量增長(zhǎng)略微下降了10 tb/d，至23萬(wàn)桶/日，平均為56.43萬(wàn)桶/日。預(yù)計(jì)歐佩克國(guó)家的天然氣供應(yīng)量在2017年平均為64.3萬(wàn)桶/日，比今年增加了15萬(wàn)桶/日。根據(jù)第二來源，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量在10月份增加了24萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到平均3364萬(wàn)桶/日。10月份，大西洋盆地的產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)和煉油業(yè)務(wù)產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)繼續(xù)走強(qiáng)。在需求強(qiáng)勁和庫(kù)存下降的情況下，油價(jià)中間價(jià)的積極表現(xiàn)，使得汽油裂損利差顯示出大幅復(fù)蘇。與此同時(shí)，一些汽油供應(yīng)中斷加劇了汽油市場(chǎng)的緊張情緒。在亞洲，利潤(rùn)率保持健康，在區(qū)域煉油廠維護(hù)高峰期，區(qū)域需求強(qiáng)勁支撐。10月份，油輪市場(chǎng)油輪市場(chǎng)情緒普遍好轉(zhuǎn)，臟油和清潔油市場(chǎng)的運(yùn)費(fèi)均有所上升。受噸位需求改善和季節(jié)性需求影響，臟油輪現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)較上月大幅上漲13%，其中超大型油輪收益最高。租船活動(dòng)在10月份小幅上升，盡管大部分仍低于去年同期的水平。9月份商業(yè)庫(kù)存總量下降至30520萬(wàn)桶，比五年平均水平高出約304萬(wàn)桶，原油和產(chǎn)品庫(kù)存分別出現(xiàn)1650萬(wàn)桶和1380萬(wàn)桶的盈余。就遠(yuǎn)期覆蓋天數(shù)而言，經(jīng)合組織9月份商業(yè)投資為65.7天，比季節(jié)平均水平高出約6.5天。預(yù)計(jì)2016年歐佩克原油供需平衡為3190萬(wàn)桶/日，去年增加190萬(wàn)桶/多佛。2017年，預(yù)計(jì)歐佩克原油需求為3270萬(wàn)桶/日，比今年增加80萬(wàn)桶/日。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket rose by $4.98 in October, to average $47.87/b. ICE Brentand NYMEX WTI also surged, up by $4.15 and $4.71, to average $51.39/b and $49.94/b,respectively. Prices were lifted by declining US oil inventory levels and discussions to bringforward market rebalancing. However, prices came under pressure from a rise in US oil rigcounts, a stronger US dollar, and profit taking. The ICE Brent-NYMEX WTI spreadnarrowed to $1.45/b, encouraging US imports of Brent-related grades.World EconomyWorld economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 2.9% for this year and 3.1% for2017. The OECD forecast also remains at 1.6% and 1.7% for 2016 and 2017, respectively,although growth in the Eurozone has been revised up to 1.6% and 1.3% for this and thecoming year. The forecasts for China were also revised up to 6.7% in 2016 and 6.2% in2017, while growth in India has been left unchanged at 7.5% for this year and 7.2% for thecoming year. Russia is forecast to see a stronger recovery of 0.8% in 2017, following acontraction of 0.6% this year. Brazil’s growth was unchanged at 0.4% in 2017 after acontraction of 3.4% this year.World Oil DemandWorld oil demand growth is expected to increase by 1.23 mb/d in 2016 to average94.40 mb/d. This follows a marginal downward adjustment to account for the slower-thanexpectedperformance of Latin America and the Middle East, which was almost entirelyoffset by better-than-expected oil demand growth data from OECD Europe and AsiaPacific. In 2017, world oil demand growth is seen at 1.15 mb/d, unchanged from theOctober MOMR to average 95.55 mb/d.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC oil supply in 2016 is now expected to contract by 0.78 mb/d, following adownward revision of around 0.1 mb/d from the October MOMR, to average 56.20 mb/d. In2017, non-OPEC supply growth was revised down slightly by 10 tb/d to 0.23 mb/d,averaging 56.43 mb/d. OPEC NGLs are expected to average 6.43 mb/d in 2017, anincrease of 0.15 mb/d over the current year. OPEC crude production, according tosecondary sources, increased by 0.24 mb/d in October to average 33.64 mb/d.Product Markets and Refining OperationsProduct markets in the Atlantic Basin continued to strengthen in October. The positiveperformance of the middle of the barrel, amid stronger demand and falling inventories,allowed gasoil crack spreads to show a sharp recovery. Meanwhile, some outages fuelleda tightening sentiment in the gasoline market. In Asia, margins remained healthy,supported by stronger regional demand amid the peak of regional refinery maintenance.Tanker MarketTanker market sentiment experienced a general improvement in October, as freight ratesin both dirty and clean segments of the market increased. Dirty tanker spot freight ratesaveraged 13% higher over the previous month on the back of improved tonnagerequirements and seasonal demand, with VLCCs achieving the highest gains. Charteringactivities edged up in October, although mostly remaining below year-ago levels.Stock MovementsOECD total commercial stocks fell in September to stand at 3,052 mb, some 304 mbabove the five-year average, as crude and product inventories showed surpluses of165 mb and 138 mb, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercialinventories stood at 65.7 days in September, some 6.5 days above the seasonal average.Balance of Supply and DemandDemand for OPEC crude in 2016 is estimated to stand at 31.9 mb/d, a gain of 1.9 mb/dover last year. In 2017, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.7 mb/d, an increase of0.8 mb/d over the current year.