原油價格變動9月份，歐佩克參考價格籃子平均為44.83美元/桶，較上月的63美元/桶有所下降。一年多來打壓市場的基本面因素持續(xù)存在，但開始出現(xiàn)緩和跡象。ICE布倫特平均價格為48.54美元/桶，較上月上漲33美元；Nymex WTI平均價格為45.47美元/桶，上漲2.58美元。布倫特-WTI價差從5.32美元/桶大幅收窄至3.07美元/桶。2015年世界經(jīng)濟增長率保持不變，為3.1%，2016年為3.4%。OECD的增長率在兩年內(nèi)也保持不變，分別為2.0%和2.1%。主要新興經(jīng)濟體正面臨越來越多的挑戰(zhàn)，盡管中國和印度的經(jīng)濟增長預(yù)測保持不變，但巴西和俄羅斯2015年和2016年的經(jīng)濟增長均被下調(diào)了0.2個百分點。2015年世界石油需求量預(yù)計將增長150萬桶/日，在大約40 tb/d的上升修正之后，主要是由于2015年第三季度的數(shù)據(jù)好于預(yù)期。目前，石油總需求預(yù)計為9286萬桶/日。2016年，世界石油需求預(yù)計將增加125萬桶/日，此前下調(diào)了40噸/日，主要是為了反映高基線效應(yīng)。因此，世界石油需求預(yù)計將達到9411萬桶/日。2015年，歐佩克石油供應(yīng)增長目前為72萬桶/日，此前的報告下調(diào)了16萬桶/日，主要歸因于美國的下調(diào)。2016年，非歐佩克國家的石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計將出現(xiàn)13萬桶/日的明顯萎縮，與之前的評估相比下降了29萬桶/日。歐佩克天然氣產(chǎn)量預(yù)計在2016年增長17萬桶/日，今年增長19萬桶/日。據(jù)二級消息來源稱，9月份，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量增加了109tb/d，平均為3157mb/d。大西洋盆地的產(chǎn)品市場和煉油業(yè)務(wù)由于美國駕駛季結(jié)束后汽油裂縫蔓延的急劇下降，9月份產(chǎn)品市場疲軟。加上庫存增加，這導致該地區(qū)煉油廠利潤率下降。受區(qū)域煉油廠維修開始和迪拜原油價格下跌調(diào)整的推動，市場人氣趨緊，亞洲市場保證金走強。油輪市場臟船現(xiàn)貨運價9月份漲跌不一，超大型油輪表現(xiàn)出強勁增長。與上月相比，超大型油輪和蘇伊士型油輪的即期運價分別增長27%和5%，而阿芙拉型油輪的即期運價則有所下降。中東和西非的租船活動，以及港口延誤，支持了這一成果。在清潔油輪市場，蘇伊士以西的活動落后于現(xiàn)貨運價的小幅上漲，而蘇伊士以東的運價仍然疲軟。8月份，商業(yè)石油庫存進一步上升，達到293300萬桶。在這個水平上，庫存比五年平均水平高出約194MB。原油和產(chǎn)品的盈余分別約為167MB和270MB。從遠期覆蓋天數(shù)來看，8月份經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)庫存為63.3天，比5年平均水平高出約4.5天；預(yù)計2015年歐佩克原油供需平衡為2960萬桶/日，比上一次報告高出30萬桶/日，比上一年水平高出60萬桶/日。2016年，預(yù)計歐佩克原油需求為3080萬桶/日，比上一份報告增加50萬桶/日，比本年度增加120萬桶/日。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket averaged $44.83/b in September, representing a declinefrom the previous month of 63. Fundamentals factors that have weighed on the market formore than a year have persisted, but are starting to show signs of alleviation. ICE Brentaveraged $48.54/b, a gain of 33 over the previous month, and Nymex WTI averaged$45.47/b, up $2.58. The Brent-WTI spread narrowed sharply from $5.32/b to $3.07/b.World EconomyWorld economic growth remains unchanged at 3.1% for 2015 and 3.4% for 2016. OECDgrowth also remains unchanged for both years at 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively. Keyemerging economies are increasingly facing challenges and while the growth forecast forChina and India remains unchanged, both Brazil’s and Russia’s growth have been reviseddown by 0.2 percentage points for 2015 and 2016.World Oil DemandWorld oil demand growth in 2015 is foreseen to rise by 1.50 mb/d, following an upwardrevision of around 40 tb/d, mostly due to better-than-expected data in 3Q15. Total oildemand is now forecast at 92.86 mb/d. In 2016, world oil demand is anticipated to rise by1.25 mb/d, following a downward revision of 40 tb/d, mainly to reflect the high base-lineeffect. As a result, world oil demand is forecast to reach 94.11 mb/d.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC oil supply growth in 2015 now stands at 0.72 mb/d, following a downwardrevision of 0.16 mb/d from the previous report, attributed mainly to a downward adjustmentin the US. For 2016, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to show a clear contraction of0.13 mb/d, following a downward revision of 0.29 mb/d compared to the previousassessment. OPEC NGLs are expected to grow by 0.17 mb/d in 2016, following growth of0.19 mb/d this year. In September, OPEC crude production increased by 109 tb/d toaverage 31.57 mb/d, according to secondary sources.Product Markets and Refining OperationsProduct markets in the Atlantic Basin weakened during September due to a sharp drop inthe gasoline crack spread following the end of the US driving season. Combined withincreasing inventories, this caused the refinery margins to fall in the region. Asian marginsstrengthened on the back of tightening sentiment, fuelled by the onset of regional refinerymaintenance and a downward correction in Dubai crude prices.Tanker MarketDirty vessel spot freight rates saw mixed movements in September, with VLCCs showingthe strongest growth. Compared to the previous month, VLCC and Suezmax spot freightrates increased by 27% and 5%, respectively, while Aframax rates declined. Charteringactivities in the Middle East and West Africa, along with port delays, supported the gains. Inthe clean tanker market, West of Suez activities were behind the marginal increase in spotfreight rates, while East of Suez rates remained weak.Stock MovementsOECD commercial oil stocks rose further in August to stand at 2,933 mb. At this level,inventories were around 194 mb higher than the five-year average. Crude and productsshowed a surplus of around 167 mb and 27 mb, respectively. In terms of days of forwardcover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 63.3 days in August, some 4.5 days higher thanthe five-year average.Balance of Supply and DemandDemand for OPEC crude in 2015 is estimated to stand at 29.6 mb/d, 0.3 mb/d higher thanthe previous report and 0.6 mb/d above the previous year’s level. In 2016, demand forOPEC crude is forecast at 30.8 mb/d, an increase of 0.5 mb/d over the previous report andaround 1.2 mb/d higher than the current year.