原油價(jià)格變動(dòng)

石油輸出國(guó)組織（歐佩克）的一籃子參考原油價(jià)格在2月份出現(xiàn)了三個(gè)月來的首次回升，上漲8.4%或2.22美元，達(dá)到28.72美元/桶。原油期貨漲跌互現(xiàn)，ICE布倫特原油價(jià)格上漲1.60美元，達(dá)到33.53美元/桶，Nymex WTI原油價(jià)格下跌1.16美元，達(dá)到30.62美元/桶。布倫特WTI價(jià)差停止了收窄趨勢(shì)，擴(kuò)大了2.76美元，達(dá)到2.91美元/桶。

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)

在2015年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率預(yù)計(jì)為2.9%之后，今年的世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率已下調(diào)至3.1%。經(jīng)合組織（OECD）2016年的增長(zhǎng)率已下調(diào)至1.9%，略低于2015年的2.0%。在新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體中，印度和中國(guó)似乎繼續(xù)以7.5%和6.3%的速度擴(kuò)張。不過，巴西和俄羅斯目前預(yù)計(jì)2016年將出現(xiàn)比預(yù)期更大的收縮。

世界石油需求

根據(jù)上一份報(bào)告，2015年世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)率為154萬桶/日，平均為9298萬桶/日。2016年全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)也保持在125萬桶/日左右，平均為9423萬桶/日。

世界石油供應(yīng)

2015年非歐佩克國(guó)家石油供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)率已上調(diào)100 tb/d，至142 mb/d，平均為5709 mb/d。此次上調(diào)主要是由經(jīng)合組織（OECD）對(duì)2015年第4季度數(shù)據(jù)的上調(diào)推動(dòng)的。2016年，非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將減少70萬桶/日，平均為5639萬桶/日。繼2015年增長(zhǎng)15萬桶/日后，歐佩克天然氣供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)今年將增加17萬桶/日。根據(jù)第二來源，2月份，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量下降了175 tb/d，平均為3228 mb/d。

產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)和煉油業(yè)務(wù)

盡管汽油需求強(qiáng)勁，但供過于求的環(huán)境對(duì)產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)造成壓力，并導(dǎo)致大西洋盆地的利潤(rùn)率下降。同時(shí)，在亞洲，由于輕質(zhì)餾分油供過于求，導(dǎo)致汽油和石腦油裂縫蔓延嚴(yán)重。這一點(diǎn)，加上油價(jià)中間線的持續(xù)走弱，導(dǎo)致該地區(qū)煉油廠利潤(rùn)率出現(xiàn)大幅虧損。

油輪市場(chǎng)

臟油輪現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)在2月份下降，幾乎所有船只的運(yùn)價(jià)都有所下降。下降的主要原因是東部的活動(dòng)和假期有限，唯一的例外是加勒比海裝貨的阿芙拉型油輪運(yùn)價(jià)，這是由惡劣的天氣條件支撐的。清潔油輪市場(chǎng)在2月份經(jīng)歷了同樣的普遍負(fù)增長(zhǎng)，蘇伊士以東和以西的運(yùn)價(jià)分別下降了14%和18%。

股票變動(dòng)

經(jīng)合組織（OECD）1月份商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存增長(zhǎng)至30.23億桶。在這一水平上，庫(kù)存比五年平均水平高出約328mb，其中原油和產(chǎn)品的asurplus分別約為244mb和84mb。在遠(yuǎn)期保護(hù)期內(nèi)，1月份OEC商業(yè)庫(kù)存為65.3天，比5年平均水平高出約6.8天。

供需平衡

據(jù)估計(jì)，2015年歐佩克原油需求量平均為2970萬桶/日，此前該數(shù)據(jù)較上月的報(bào)告下調(diào)了10萬桶/日，與上一年基本持平。2016年，歐佩克原油需求預(yù)計(jì)為3150萬桶/日，10萬桶/日，低于上月，比上年增加180萬桶/日。

Crude Oil Price Movements 

The OPEC Reference Basket recovered in February for the first time in three months,gaining 8.4% or $2.22 to reach $28.72/b. Crude oil futures were mixed, with ICE Brentending up $1.60 to reach $33.53/b, while Nymex WTI fell by $1.16 to stand at $30.62/b.The Brent-WTI spread halted its narrowing trend, widening by $2.76 to $2.91/b. 

World Economy 

World economic growth has been revised down for this year to 3.1%, after estimatedgrowth of 2.9% in 2015. OECD growth in 2016 has been revised lower to 1.9%, slightlybelow the 2.0% seen in 2015. In the emerging economies, India and China are seencontinuing to expand at a considerable pace of 7.5% and 6.3%, respectively. Brazil andRussia, however, are now forecast to see a larger than expected contraction in 2016. 

World Oil Demand 

World oil demand growth for 2015 stands at 1.54 mb/d to average 92.98 mb/d, in line withthe previous report. Global oil demand growth for 2016 also remains unchanged at around1.25 mb/d to average 94.23 mb/d. 

World Oil Supply 

Non-OPEC oil supply growth for 2015 has been revised up by 100 tb/d to 1.42 mb/d for anaverage of 57.09 mb/d. This revision was mostly driven by upward adjustments to 4Q15data in the OECD. In 2016, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to contract by 0.70 mb/d toaverage 56.39 mb/d. OPEC NGLs are expected to increase by 0.17 mb/d this year,following growth of 0.15 mb/d in 2015. In February, OPEC crude production, according tosecondary sources, decreased by 175 tb/d to average 32.28 mb/d. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

Despite strong gasoline demand, the oversupply environment exerted pressure on theproduct market and caused margins to weaken in the Atlantic basin. Meanwhile, in Asialight distillates oversupply caused the gasoline and naphtha crack spreads to suffer a sharpfall. This, along with the continued weakening at the middle of the barrel, caused refinerymargins to exhibit a sharp loss in the region. 

Tanker Market 

Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined in February, with rates falling for almost all vesselson all reported routes. The drop was mainly due to limited activity and holidays in the East.The only exception was Aframax rates for Caribbean’s loadings, which were supported bybad weather conditions. The clean tanker market experienced the same general negativetrend in February, as rates dropped both East and West of Suez by 14% and 18%,respectively. 

Stock Movements 

OECD commercial oil stocks rose in January to stand at 3,023 mb. At this level, inventorieswere around 328 mb higher than the five-year average, with crude and products showing asurplus of around 244 mb and 84 mb, respectively. In days of forward cover, OECDcommercial stocks stood at 65.3 days in January, some 6.8 days higher than the five-yearaverage. 

Balance of Supply and Demand 

Demand for OPEC crude in 2015 is estimated to average 29.7 mb/d, following a downwardrevision of 0.1 mb/d from last month’s report and broadly unchanged from the previousyear. In 2016, demand for OPEC crude is expected to stand at 31.5 mb/d, 0.1 mb/d, lowerthan last month, and representing an increase of 1.8 mb/d over the previous year.