今年4月，歐佩克（OPEC）參考指標(biāo)籃子飆升至8個(gè)月高點(diǎn)，因擔(dān)憂夏季燃料供應(yīng)，并擔(dān)心地緣政治發(fā)展中可能出現(xiàn)的供應(yīng)過度中斷。4月份，該籃子指數(shù)上漲4.92美元或8.4%，至63.39美元/桶，是第三個(gè)月漲幅，比1月份上漲25%。5月上半月，由于部分亞洲煉油廠仍在進(jìn)行季節(jié)性維修，市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)需求將下降，因此該籃子石油價(jià)格恢復(fù)了下降趨勢(shì)。然而，由于5月14日歐佩克的參考價(jià)格籃子降至63.68美元/桶，來(lái)自西非的更高需求預(yù)測(cè)和供應(yīng)中斷控制了價(jià)格。今年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率預(yù)計(jì)為4.8%，比上一次預(yù)測(cè)高出0.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，原因是歐盟、日本、中國(guó)和巴西的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率小幅上調(diào)，而巴西則因數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)整而上調(diào)，對(duì)美國(guó)的預(yù)測(cè)又下調(diào)了0.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，至2.2%，因?yàn)榧磳⒐嫉臄?shù)據(jù)繼續(xù)顯示，房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的疲弱程度進(jìn)一步加深，第一季度出口意外下降。日本的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇仍在進(jìn)行中，但消費(fèi)需求仍然乏力，而在歐盟，對(duì)強(qiáng)勁經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的可持續(xù)性普遍持樂觀態(tài)度。對(duì)發(fā)展中國(guó)家而言，盡管有跡象顯示美國(guó)需求放緩，政府也試圖推動(dòng)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，但多數(shù)指標(biāo)顯示，2007年表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁。中國(guó)在第一季度實(shí)現(xiàn)了非常強(qiáng)勁的11.1%的增長(zhǎng)，今年的預(yù)測(cè)被修正為9.9%，而印度的預(yù)測(cè)與上月的8.0%持平。4月份世界石油需求較上月有所下降，盡管北美的需求增長(zhǎng)最為強(qiáng)勁。非經(jīng)合組織國(guó)家的石油需求增長(zhǎng)了，但沒有經(jīng)合組織國(guó)家那么多。據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)，2007年世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)為130萬(wàn)桶/日，或1.5%，至8540萬(wàn)桶/日。經(jīng)合組織（OECD）歐洲的消費(fèi)量較上個(gè)月的評(píng)估略有下降。由于燃料油和汽油需求激增，北美第一季度的石油需求預(yù)計(jì)平均為2590萬(wàn)桶/日，同比增長(zhǎng)70萬(wàn)桶/日。蓬勃發(fā)展的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)促進(jìn)了中東和中國(guó)的石油需求，同比分別增長(zhǎng)了30萬(wàn)桶/日和40萬(wàn)桶/日。2006年，非歐佩克國(guó)家的石油供應(yīng)量平均為4950萬(wàn)桶/日，比2005年增加了50萬(wàn)桶/日，較上一次評(píng)估略有上升。2007年，非歐佩克國(guó)家的石油平均供應(yīng)量預(yù)計(jì)為5070萬(wàn)桶/日，比上一年增加120萬(wàn)桶/日，比上一次評(píng)估下降7.1萬(wàn)桶/日。修訂主要是由于第一季度的實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)。4月份的初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，非歐佩克國(guó)家的石油供應(yīng)量為5040萬(wàn)桶/日，與2007年第一季度持平。歐佩克4月份的總產(chǎn)量平均為3014萬(wàn)桶/日，比上月增加97100桶/日。美國(guó)對(duì)汽油的需求增加，加上大量的非計(jì)劃煉油廠停產(chǎn)和維修計(jì)劃延誤，導(dǎo)致過去幾周汽油庫(kù)存出現(xiàn)異常減少。這一情況大大提高了全球煉油廠的利潤(rùn)率。隨著大西洋盆地?zé)捰蛷S維修計(jì)劃接近尾聲，未來(lái)幾周成品油市場(chǎng)情緒可能略有減弱，但可能仍對(duì)原油價(jià)格構(gòu)成支撐，因?yàn)槊绹?guó)煉油企業(yè)短期內(nèi)可能無(wú)法大幅提高產(chǎn)能水平。4月份，歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨租船量繼續(xù)下降，下降了46萬(wàn)桶/日，至124萬(wàn)桶/日，為2007年迄今的最低水平。非石油輸出國(guó)組織的租船量保持在700萬(wàn)桶/天的穩(wěn)定水平。來(lái)自歐佩克地區(qū)的船運(yùn)量增加了134萬(wàn)桶/天，達(dá)到2410萬(wàn)桶/天，中東的船運(yùn)量下降了0.1萬(wàn)桶/天，達(dá)到1720萬(wàn)桶/天。超大型油輪的原油運(yùn)價(jià)在所有航線上都有所下降，由于適逢亞洲煉油廠維修季節(jié)，充足的可用性下降了14%至27%，對(duì)運(yùn)價(jià)進(jìn)一步施加下行壓力。受市場(chǎng)緊縮影響，蘇伊士型油輪4月份的運(yùn)價(jià)有所上升。產(chǎn)品運(yùn)價(jià)漲跌不一，但由于活動(dòng)有限，影響了運(yùn)價(jià)。初步估計(jì)，經(jīng)合組織3月份原油進(jìn)口量為3060萬(wàn)桶/日，比上月增加0.85萬(wàn)桶/日，其中產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口量在增加35.5萬(wàn)桶/日后達(dá)到1040萬(wàn)桶/日。然而，兩者均出現(xiàn)了年度下降。美國(guó)4月份原油進(jìn)口量增長(zhǎng)18萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到1015萬(wàn)桶/日，年增長(zhǎng)率為3.6%。成品油進(jìn)口繼續(xù)保持增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭，推動(dòng)美國(guó)石油凈進(jìn)口達(dá)到1250萬(wàn)桶/日，創(chuàng)下今年以來(lái)的最高水平。相比之下，由于煉油廠維修，日本4月份原油進(jìn)口量下降約18萬(wàn)桶/日。在中國(guó)，原油凈進(jìn)口量在上個(gè)月增加了12.5萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到380萬(wàn)桶/日，表明在原油和產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口量增加的支持下，年增長(zhǎng)約17%。從月度和年度來(lái)看，印度的石油凈進(jìn)口總額保持穩(wěn)定。4月份，美國(guó)商業(yè)股總量連續(xù)第二次增長(zhǎng)，達(dá)到9.86億股，比5年平均水平高出3%。原油庫(kù)存為3.39億桶，為2006年5月以來(lái)的最高水平，而受汽油推動(dòng)，成品油庫(kù)存下降了220萬(wàn)桶，至6.47億桶。在截至5月4日的一周內(nèi)，汽油庫(kù)存扭轉(zhuǎn)了過去12周的下降趨勢(shì)，并上漲約40萬(wàn)桶/日，原因是進(jìn)口量增加和煉油廠運(yùn)行的溫和復(fù)蘇。在歐盟16國(guó)（15歐元加上挪威），石油庫(kù)存上升31.5萬(wàn)桶/日至11.61億桶，為2006年1月以來(lái)的最高水平。在日本，3月底，商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存微跌50萬(wàn)桶，至185萬(wàn)桶，比一年前多出470萬(wàn)桶。原油庫(kù)存自2006年11月以來(lái)首次增加，增加了25萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到11 150萬(wàn)桶，而產(chǎn)品庫(kù)存下降，出口大幅增加，進(jìn)口下降。預(yù)計(jì)2007年歐佩克原油需求平均為3040萬(wàn)桶/日，較上年下降9萬(wàn)桶/日。以水資源為基礎(chǔ)，預(yù)計(jì)歐佩克原油需求分別為3090萬(wàn)桶/日、2940萬(wàn)桶/日、3040萬(wàn)桶/日和3060萬(wàn)桶/日。2006年，歐佩克原油的平均需求量為3040萬(wàn)桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket surged to an eight-month high in April on concern over summer fuel supplies and worries overpotential supply disruptions amid geopolitical developments. The Basket rose $4.92 or 8.4% in April to stand at $63.39/b, thethird monthly rise and 25% higher than in January. In the first half of May, the Basket resumed the downward trend on theperception of lower demand amid some Asian refineries still on seasonal maintenance. However, higher demand forecasts andsupply disruptions from West Africa kept prices in check as the OPEC Reference Basket eased to $63.68/b on 14 May. World economic growth is now forecast at 4.8% for this year, 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous forecastdue to small upward revisions for the EU, Japan, China and Brazil, the latter on account of data adjustments.Meanwhile, the forecast for the US has been revised down by another 0.1 percentage points to 2.2% as incoming datacontinue to show further and even deepening weakness in the housing sector and a surprising drop in exports during thefirst quarter. The economic recovery in Japan is still on course but consumer demand remains anemic, while in the EUoptimism prevails about the sustainability of the strong economic recovery. For Developing Countries, most indicatorspoint to a strong performance in 2007, despite signs of a slowdown in demand in the US and government attempts tocurb growth in China. China achieved a very strong 11.1% growth in the first quarter and the forecast for this year hasbeen revised up to 9.9% while India’s forecast is unchanged from last month’s at 8.0%. World oil demand was lower in April than in the previous month, although demand growth was the strongest in NorthAmerica. Non-OECD oil demand grew but not as much as in the OECD countries. World oil demand growth for 2007 isforecast at 1.3 mb/d or 1.5% to 85.4 mb/d. Consumption in OECD Europe was revised down slightly from last month’sassessment. First quarter oil demand in North America is estimated to average 25.9 mb/d, representing 0.7 mb/d growthy-o-y, due to surging demand for both fuel oil and gasoline. Booming economic activities helped boosted oil demand inboth the Middle East and China, with y-o-y increases of 0.3 mb/d and 0.4 mb/d respectively. In 2006, non-OPEC oil supply averaged 49.5 mb/d, representing an increase of 0.5 mb/d over 2005 and a slight upwardrevision from the last assessment. Non-OPEC supply is expected to average 50.7 mb/d in 2007, an increase of 1.2 mb/d overthe previous year and a downward revision of 71,000 b/d from the last assessment. The revision is due mainly to actual firstquarter data. Preliminary data for the month of April put non-OPEC supply at 50.4 mb/d, around the same level as in thefirst quarter of 2007. Total OPEC production in April averaged 30.14 mb/d, an increase of 97,100 b/d over the previousmonth. Higher demand for gasoline in the USA, combined with extensive unplanned refinery outages and maintenance scheduledelays, resulted in unusual gasoline stock-draws over the last couple of weeks. This situation lifted refinery marginssignificantly across the globe. With the approaching end of the refinery maintenance schedule in the Atlantic Basin,product market sentiment may soften slightly over the next weeks, but is likely to remain supportive to crude prices, as USrefiners might not be able to raise throughput level sharply in the short term. OPEC spot chartering continued to decline in April, falling 0.46 mb/d to 12.4 b/d, the lowest level so far in 2007. NonOPECspot chartering remained steady at 7.0 mb/d. Sailings from the OPEC area rose by 1.34 mb/d to 24.1 mb/d, withMiddle East sailing declining by 0.1 mb/d to stand at 17.2 mb/d. VLCC crude oil freight rates declined in all routes, losingbetween 14% and 27% on ample availability which coincided with the Asian refinery maintenance season, exerting furtherdownward pressure on freight rates. Suezmax rates increased in April on the back of market tightness. Product freight rateswere mixed but declined in the East as limited activities affected rates. Preliminary estimates put OECD crude oil imports for March at 30.6 mb/d, up 0.85 mb/d from the previous month, whileproduct imports reached 10.4 mb/d following a gain of 355,000 b/d. However, both experienced annual declines. US crudeoil imports rose 180,000 b/d to hit 10.15 mb/d in April, representing annual growth of 3.6%. Product imports remainedsteady, driving the US net oil imports to 12.5 mb/d, their highest level so far this year. In contrast, Japan’s crude oil importsfell around 180,000 b/d in April due to refinery maintenance. In China, net crude oil imports increased by 125,000 b/d inMarch to 3.8 mb/d, indicating annual growth of around 17%, supported by increased crude and product imports. India’sMarch total net oil imports remained steady in both monthly and yearly terms. Total US commercial stocks saw the second consecutive increase in April, reaching 986 mb or 3% above the five-yearaverage. Crude oil stocks stood at 339 mb, the highest level since May 2006, while product stocks fell 2.2 mb to 647 mb,driven by gasoline. In the week ending 4 May, gasoline stocks reversed the downward trend of the last 12 weeks and rosearound 0.4 mb/d due to increasing imports and a modest recovery in refinery runs. In EU-16 (Eur-15 plus Norway), oilstocks rose 315,000 b/d to 1,161 mb, the highest level since January 2006. In Japan, commercial oil stocks fell a marginal0.5 mb to stand at 185 mb at the end of March, representing a surplus of 4.7 mb above a year ago. Crude oil stocksincreased for the first time since November 2006, rising by 250,000 b/d to 111.5 mb whereas product stocks dropped asexports increased substantially and imports fell. Demand for OPEC crude in 2007 is expected to average 30.4 mb/d, down 90,000 b/d from the previous year. On aquarterly basis, the demand for OPEC crude is expected at 30.9 mb/d, 29.4 mb/d, 30.4 mb/d and 30.6 mb/d respectively. In2006, estimated demand for OPEC crude averaged 30.4 mb/d.