6月，歐佩克參考價(jià)格籃子上漲2.41美元或近4%，收于66.77美元/桶。市場(chǎng)看漲主要是對(duì)汽油供應(yīng)的擔(dān)憂，地緣政治擔(dān)憂和煉油廠故障為市場(chǎng)提供了進(jìn)一步支持。然而，健康的原油庫(kù)存保持了市場(chǎng)平衡。在7月的前兩周，由于美國(guó)煉油廠持續(xù)停工，季節(jié)性需求增加，對(duì)汽油的持續(xù)擔(dān)憂，導(dǎo)致全球油價(jià)創(chuàng)下10個(gè)月來(lái)的新高，7月第一周的一攬子價(jià)格飆升至70美元/桶以上。7月13日，該籃子價(jià)格為72.49美元/桶。

全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的強(qiáng)勁擴(kuò)張預(yù)計(jì)將以4.9%的增長(zhǎng)率持續(xù)到2008年，幾乎與2007年預(yù)測(cè)的5%持平。美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率將從今年的2.1%提高到2008年的2.6%，因?yàn)榈矫髂甏杭荆康禺a(chǎn)業(yè)不再對(duì)GDP增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生不利影響，私人投資開始回升。歐元區(qū)和日本的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)計(jì)將保持相對(duì)強(qiáng)勁，分別為2.4%和2.2%，略低于2007年。對(duì)發(fā)展中國(guó)家，特別是印度和中國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō)，2008年有望實(shí)現(xiàn)又一年的強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)，盡管增長(zhǎng)率略低，中國(guó)明年的增長(zhǎng)率為9.6%，印度為7.8%。這種良性預(yù)測(cè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能來(lái)自于高于必要的利率，因?yàn)楦鲊?guó)央行應(yīng)對(duì)可能抑制增長(zhǎng)率的通脹壓力。

據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)，2008年世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)率為130萬(wàn)桶/日，與本年度的預(yù)測(cè)值相比相對(duì)未變。非經(jīng)合組織（尤其是中國(guó)、中東和印度）將占據(jù)最大份額，而經(jīng)合組織預(yù)計(jì)只會(huì)看到溫和增長(zhǎng)，主要來(lái)自北美。預(yù)計(jì)交通和工業(yè)將是主要增長(zhǎng)部門，預(yù)測(cè)中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能會(huì)對(duì)兩個(gè)方向的增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生約150000桶/日的影響。由于汽油價(jià)格上漲和價(jià)格彈性增強(qiáng)的影響，經(jīng)合組織的石油需求可能會(huì)超出預(yù)期。北半球暖冬模式的延續(xù)可能會(huì)抑制需求，而極端寒冷的天氣則會(huì)帶來(lái)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。2007年，世界石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)130萬(wàn)桶/日或1.5%，與上一年同期基本持平。6月份，世界石油需求如預(yù)期一樣出現(xiàn)了低季節(jié)性趨勢(shì)。由于4月份數(shù)據(jù)強(qiáng)勁，預(yù)計(jì)第二季度同比增長(zhǎng)110萬(wàn)桶/日，而第三季度和第四季度應(yīng)保持140萬(wàn)桶/日和170萬(wàn)桶/日的健康增長(zhǎng)。

2008年，非歐佩克國(guó)家的石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)100萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到5140萬(wàn)桶/日，這是由于各油田產(chǎn)量的加速下降以及成本導(dǎo)致的項(xiàng)目延誤的影響，將從本年度延續(xù)下去。預(yù)計(jì)海上項(xiàng)目的份額將增長(zhǎng)至63.5%，產(chǎn)量也將增加，預(yù)計(jì)將以輕至中質(zhì)原油為主，灰燼占68%。2007年，非歐佩克國(guó)家的石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將增加100萬(wàn)桶/日，這意味著較上一次評(píng)估的19萬(wàn)桶/日大幅下降，主要原因是挪威的表現(xiàn)不佳，在5月和6月的早期維護(hù)達(dá)到了13年來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)，比正常維護(hù)更重，以及Ekofisk和Kvitebjornfields的關(guān)閉。6月份，歐佩克原油平均日產(chǎn)量為3000萬(wàn)桶，比上月下降9.7萬(wàn)桶。

6月份美國(guó)汽油庫(kù)存低于預(yù)期，進(jìn)一步支撐了近幾周的成品油和原油價(jià)格。然而，快速上漲的原油價(jià)格超過(guò)了成品油市場(chǎng)的表現(xiàn)，與上月相比，6月份煉油利潤(rùn)率全面下滑。盡管煉油廠利潤(rùn)率下降，但隨著煉油廠陷入困境的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)持續(xù)存在，6月份產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)人氣依然堅(jiān)挺，為原油市場(chǎng)提供了支撐。然而，隨著全球煉油廠產(chǎn)量的增加（尤其是美國(guó)），以及汽油進(jìn)口量的增加，成品油市場(chǎng)近期可能會(huì)失去部分目前的實(shí)力。

6月份，歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量較上月增長(zhǎng)了8%左右，平均為1283萬(wàn)桶/日，而歐佩克的航行量保持穩(wěn)定，平均為2340萬(wàn)桶/日，小幅下降了20萬(wàn)桶/日。6月份，全世界的到達(dá)量保持穩(wěn)定，美國(guó)的到達(dá)量?jī)H小幅增長(zhǎng)了7萬(wàn)桶/日。超大型油輪市場(chǎng)進(jìn)一步走軟，因?yàn)槌渥愕目捎脟嵨慌c低于預(yù)期的噸位需求水平相結(jié)合，使租船人獲得了優(yōu)勢(shì)。在中東/東向和西向航線上，費(fèi)率分別下降了23%和7%。6月清潔油輪運(yùn)價(jià)看跌，多數(shù)地區(qū)的需求低于可用噸位清單。

由于煉油企業(yè)準(zhǔn)備提高利用率，美國(guó)6月份原油凈進(jìn)口總量增加8.7萬(wàn)桶/日。然而，由于汽油進(jìn)口減少，6月份產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口量較上月下降27萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到250萬(wàn)桶/日。同一個(gè)月，由于原油進(jìn)口增加，而產(chǎn)品下降了2.6%，日本的石油進(jìn)口總量估計(jì)增加了193000桶/日，達(dá)到平均390萬(wàn)桶/日。經(jīng)合組織的估計(jì)顯示，5月份石油凈進(jìn)口總額約為2560萬(wàn)桶/日，增長(zhǎng)約3.5%。在中國(guó)，5月份石油凈進(jìn)口額較上月下降0.56萬(wàn)桶/日，降至350萬(wàn)桶/日，主要是由于原油進(jìn)口下降，表明每年損失約2.7%。由于原油進(jìn)口減少和產(chǎn)品出口增加，印度5月份的石油凈進(jìn)口總額比上個(gè)月下降了近10%。

2007年6月，商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存總量又增加了2000萬(wàn)桶，達(dá)到10.27億桶，與一年前相比出現(xiàn)了赤字，但與上一個(gè)五年平均水平相比出現(xiàn)了1800萬(wàn)桶的盈余。隨著汽油庫(kù)存增加640萬(wàn)輛，與五年平均水平的差距縮小到700萬(wàn)輛以下。16歐元（歐盟15國(guó)加上挪威）的石油庫(kù)存總量扭轉(zhuǎn)了上個(gè)月下降近1600萬(wàn)歐元的趨勢(shì)，原因是產(chǎn)品庫(kù)存大幅下降104萬(wàn)歐元。然而，庫(kù)存仍高于過(guò)去五年平均水平的上限。截至5月底，印度商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存達(dá)到280萬(wàn)桶，但仍比去年減少2100萬(wàn)桶，與5年平均水平持平。

2007年對(duì)歐佩克原油的需求預(yù)計(jì)平均為3080萬(wàn)桶/日，幾乎與2006年持平。從水資源角度看，歐佩克原油第一季度的需求量預(yù)計(jì)為302萬(wàn)桶/日，下一季度的需求量預(yù)計(jì)為300萬(wàn)桶/日、309萬(wàn)桶/日和311萬(wàn)桶/日。2008年，對(duì)歐佩克原油的需求預(yù)計(jì)平均為3070萬(wàn)桶/日，接近2007年的估計(jì)值。

The OPEC Reference Basket in June rose $2.41 or almost 4% to close at $66.77/b. Concern over gasoline supplydominated market bullishness, with geopolitical concerns and refinery glitches providing further support to the market.However, healthy crude oil stocks kept the market in balance. In the first two weeks of July, continued concern overgasoline as seasonal demand stepped up amid ongoing refinery outages in the USA, sent global prices to a 10-month highwith the Basket surging above the $70/b level in the first week of July. The Basket stood at $72.49/b on 13 July. 

The strong global economic expansion is expected to continue into 2008 at a growth rate of 4.9%, almost at the same pace asthe forecasted 5% in 2007. US growth is to improve to 2.6% in 2008 from 2.1% this year as the housing sector ceases to be adrag on GDP growth by the spring of next year and private investment picks up. In the Euro-zone and Japan, growth isexpected to remain relatively strong at 2.4% and 2.2%, respectively, slightly lower than in 2007. For Developing Countries,and in particular India and China, another year of robust growth can be expected in 2008, albeit at a moderately lower rate.Growth in China is seen at 9.6% and in India at 7.8% next year. The risks to this benign forecast may come from higher thannecessary interest rates as central banks respond to perceived inflationary pressures which may dampen the rate of growth. 

World oil demand growth in 2008 is forecast at 1.3 mb/d, relatively unchanged from the estimate for the current year. NonOECD— especially China, the Middle East, and India — will account for the largest share, while OECD is expected to seeonly moderate growth, mostly from North America. Transportation and industry are expected to be the main growth sectors.Risks to the forecast could impact growth by around 150,000 b/d in either direction. Oil demand in OECD may turn outweaker-than-expected due to the impact of higher gasoline prices and the stronger price elasticity. A continuation of the recentpattern of warm winters in the Northern Hemisphere could dampen demand while extremely cold weather would pose anupward risk. In 2007, world oil demand is forecast to grow at 1.3 mb/d or 1.5%, broadly unchanged from the previousMOMR. In June, world oil demand followed as expected a low seasonality trend. Due to the strong April figure, the secondquarter is expected to grow 1.1 mb/d y-o-y, while the third and fourth quarters should see healthy growth of 1.4 and 1.7 mb/d. 

Non-OPEC oil supply in 2008 is expected to grow 1.0 mb/d to reach 51.4 mb/d, as the impact of accelerated declines inmature fields, along with cost-induced project delays, carry over from the current year. The share of offshore projects isexpected to grow to 63.5% and incremental production and is expected to be dominated by light to medium crude types with ashare of 68%. In 2007, non-OPEC supply is expected to increase 1.0 mb/d. This represents a significant downward revision ofaround 190,000 b/d from the last assessment, primarily due to the weak performance of Norway which reached a thirteen-yearlow in May and June on early and heavier than normal maintenance as well as the shut down of the Ekofisk and Kvitebjornfields. In June, OPEC crude output averaged 30.0 mb/d, a decline of 97,000 b/d from the previous month. 

Lower than expected gasoline stock-builds in the USA in June provided further support for product and crude prices inrecent weeks. However, fast rising crude prices outpaced the performance of the product market, undermining refinerymargins across the board in June compared to the previous month. Despite falling refinery margins, product marketsentiment remained firm in June providing support for the crude market, as the risk of refinery snags persisted. However,with increasing refinery throughput across the globe — especially in the USA — and higher gasoline imports, productmarkets may lose part of their current strength in the near term. 

OPEC spot fixtures increased by around 8% in June from the previous month to average 12.83 mb/d, while OPEC sailingsremained steady with a minor decrease of 0.2 mb/d to average 23.4 mb/d. Arrivals remained steady around the world withUS arrivals increasing only a minor 70,000 b/d in June. The VLCC market softened further as ample tonnage availabilitycoupled with tonnage requirement levels falling short of expectations gave charterers the advantage. On the MiddleEast/eastbound and westbound routes, rates fell 23% and 7% respectively. Clean tanker freight rates were bearish in June astonnage demand was shorter than the available tonnage list in most regions.

  US total net crude oil imports rose 87,000 b/d in June as refiners prepare to increase utilization rates. However, product netimports fell 270,000 b/d from previous month to stand at 2.5 mb/d in June on the back of lower gasoline imports. In thesame month, Japan’s estimated total oil imports rose 193,000 b/d to average 3.9 mb/d on increased crude oil imports whileproducts fell 2.6%. The OECD estimates showed an increase of around 3.5% for the total net oil imports in May settlingat around 25.6 mb/d. In China, net oil imports fell by 0.56 mb/d in May from the previous month to stand at 3.5 mb/d,mostly due to the decline in crude oil imports, indicating an annual loss of around 2.7%. India’s total net oil importsdropped almost 10% in May from the previous month on the back of lower crude oil imports and higher product exports. 

In June 2007, total commercial oil stocks rose a further 20 mb to stand at 1,027 mb, showing a deficit versus a year ago but an18 mb surplus compared to the last five-year average. With the 6.4 mb increase in gasoline stocks, the gap to the five-yearaverage narrowed to less than 7 mb. Total oil stocks in Eur-16 (EU-15 plus Norway) reversed the upward trend seen duringthe previous month falling by almost 16 mb due to a huge decline of 10.4mb in product stocks. However, inventories remainedat comfortable levels above the upper range of the last five-year average. At the end of May, commercial oil inventories inJapan witnessed a build of 2.8 mb, but remained 21 mb below last year and at the same level as the five-year average. 

Demand for OPEC crude in 2007 is expected to average 30.8 mb/d, at almost the same level experienced in 2006. On aquarterly basis, the demand for OPEC crude is estimated at 30.2 mb/d in the first quarter and forecast at 30.0 mb/d, 30.9 mb/dand 31.1 mb/d in the subsequent quarters. In 2008, demand for OPEC crude is projected to average 30.7 mb/d, close to theestimate for 2007.