石油市場亮點

原油價格變動

歐佩克6月參考價格籃子上漲2.45美元，至107.89美元/桶。NymexWTI上漲3.35美元至105.15美元/桶，ICE布倫特上漲2.73美元至111.97美元/桶。因伊拉克局勢動蕩，投機者對ICE布倫特的多頭頭寸創(chuàng)下歷史新高。布倫特/WTIspread指數(shù)本月收盤跌破7美元/桶，此前該指數(shù)在月中曾擴大至接近10美元/桶。

世界經(jīng)濟

2014年世界經(jīng)濟增長率從3.4%修正為3.1%，這是由美國2014年第一季度意外的低增長所觸發(fā)的。2015年的增長預測為3.4%，這得益于經(jīng)合組織（OECD）的增長速度從今年的1.7%加快到2015年的2.0%。預計2015年中國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值將從今年的7.4%增長7.2%，明年印度將從2014年的5.5%增長到5.8%。

世界石油需求

2014年全球石油需求增長預計為113萬桶/日，與上一份報告基本持平。預計2015年世界石油需求將以121萬桶/日的更快速度增長。預計經(jīng)合組織的需求自2010年以來將首次出現(xiàn)正增長，增長約40 tb/d，而非經(jīng)合組織的消費預計將為大部分石油需求增長提供118萬桶/日。

世界石油供應

2014年，非歐佩克國家的石油供應預計將增加147萬桶/日，此前的報告略有上調(diào)。2015年，非歐佩克國家的供應量預計將以每天131萬桶的速度放緩。預計歐佩克國家液化天然氣和非常規(guī)液體的供應量在今年增長150噸/日后，將在2015年增長200噸/日，達到平均600萬桶/日。根據(jù)第二來源，2014年6月，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量下降了79tb/d，平均為2970萬桶/d。

產(chǎn)品市場和煉油業(yè)務

美國夏季強勁的汽油需求支撐了大西洋盆地的產(chǎn)品市場。這已經(jīng)超過了原油中、底部的大幅下跌，阻止了美國和歐洲煉油廠利潤率的下降。由于煉油廠從維修中恢復，需求疲軟，導致煉油廠利潤率大幅下降，因此，產(chǎn)品市場繼續(xù)走低。

油輪市場

6月份油輪市場現(xiàn)貨運價漲跌互現(xiàn)。超大型油輪和蘇伊士型油輪在一些地區(qū)的活動增加后有所增加，而噸位清單似乎更短。相比之下，由于活動受到限制，阿芙拉型油輪的現(xiàn)貨運價略有下降，而噸位供應仍處于過剩狀態(tài)。

股票變動

經(jīng)合組織（OECD）5月份商業(yè)股上漲3200萬股，但仍低于5年平均水平5300萬股。原油庫存比五年平均水平高出1200萬桶，而產(chǎn)品庫存比五年平均水平低6500萬桶。在遠期覆蓋方面，經(jīng)合組織的商業(yè)股票價格穩(wěn)定在57.7天。6月份的初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國商業(yè)石油庫存總量增加了1700萬桶，高于5年平均水平900萬桶。最原始的庫存比五年平均水平高出1900萬桶，而產(chǎn)品則低于900萬桶。

供需平衡

2014年歐佩克原油需求與上一份報告的2970萬桶/日持平。根據(jù)初步預測，2015年歐佩克原油需求預計平均2940萬桶/日，下降30萬桶/日。

Oil market highlights 

Crude Oil Price Movements 

The OPEC Reference Basket increased by $2.45 in June to reach $107.89/b. NymexWTI gained $3.35 to $105.15/b and ICE Brent added $2.73 to $111.97/b. Speculatornet long positions on ICE Brent hit a record high on turmoil in Iraq. The Brent/WTIspread closed the month below $7/b, after having widened to near $10/b mid-month.

 World Economy

 World economic growth for 2014 has been revised to 3.1% from 3.4%, triggered byunexpected low 1Q14 growth in the US. The 2015 growth forecast stands at 3.4%,supported by the accelerating pace of OECD growth from 1.7% this year to 2.0% in2015. China’s GDP is forecast to grow by 7.2% in 2015 from 7.4% in the current year.India is seen growing at 5.8% next year, up from 5.5% in 2014. 

World Oil Demand 

Global oil demand growth in 2014 is forecast at 1.13 mb/d, broadly unchanged from theprevious report. World oil demand in 2015 is anticipated to increase at a faster pace of1.21 mb/d. OECD demand is expected to see positive growth for the first time since2010, increasing around 40 tb/d, while non-OECD consumption is expected to providethe bulk of oil demand growth with 1.18 mb/d. 

World Oil Supply

 Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to increase by 1.47 mb/d in 2014, following a slightupward revision from the previous report. In 2015, non-OPEC supply is projected togrow at a slower pace of 1.31 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids areforecast to grow by 200 tb/d in 2015 to average 6.0 mb/d, after growth of 150 tb/d thisyear. In June 2014, OPEC crude oil production, according to secondary sources,declined by 79 tb/d to average 29.70 mb/d. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

Strong summer gasoline demand in the US has supported product markets in theAtlantic Basin. This has outweighed the considerable decline seen in the middle andbottom of the barrel, preventing refinery margins from falling in the US and Europe. InAsia, product markets have continued to lose ground, as weak demand amid the returnof refineries from maintenance has caused refinery margins to fall sharply. 

Tanker Market 

Tanker market spot freight rates saw mixed movement in June. VLCC and Suezmaxrates increased on the back of higher activity in several regions, while the tonnage listappeared shorter. In contrast, Aframax spot freight rates declined slightly, as a result oflimited activities, while tonnage availability remained in surplus. 

Stock Movements 

OECD commercial stocks rose by 32 mb in May, but remained 53 mb below the five-yearaverage. Crude stocks were 12 mb above the five-year average, while productinventories were 65 mb below. In terms of forward cover, OECD commercial stocksstood at a comfortable level of 57.7 days. Preliminary data for June shows that US totalcommercial oil stocks rose by 17.0 mb to stand 9 mb above the five-year average. Crudestocks were 19 mb above the five-year average, while products were 9 mb below. 

Balance of Supply and Demand

 Demand for OPEC crude in 2014 remains unchanged from the previous report at29.7 mb/d. Based on initial forecasts, demand for OPEC crude in 2015 is projected toaverage 29.4 mb/d, representing a decline by 0.3 mb/d.