石油市場亮點

原油價格變動

6月份，歐佩克參考價格籃子平均為60.21美元/桶，下降了1.95美元。原油期貨價格漲跌互現(xiàn)，冰布倫特原油期貨價格平均下跌1.86美元，至63.75美元/桶，紐約商品交易所WTI原油期貨價格上漲46美元，至59.83美元/桶。這導致布倫特原油期貨價格本月收窄至3.90美元/桶左右?；鸾?jīng)理進一步減少了期貨市場的凈多頭頭寸。

世界經(jīng)濟

預計2016年世界經(jīng)濟增長率為3.5%，略高于今年的3.2%。經(jīng)合組織經(jīng)濟體預計2016年將增長2.1%，而本年為2.0%。預計中國經(jīng)濟增速將從2015年的6.9%降至6.5%，預計2016年印度經(jīng)濟增速將達到7.7%，高于今年的7.5%，俄羅斯和巴西都有望走出衰退。全球經(jīng)濟增長預測的風險似乎略有下降。

世界石油需求

2015年世界石油需求預計將增長128萬桶/日，自上一份報告以來，全球石油需求將增長10萬桶/日。據(jù)預測，2016世界石油需求增長將達到1.34百萬桶/天，經(jīng)合組織的需求預計將實現(xiàn)18百萬桶/天的正增長，而非經(jīng)合組織的消費預計將增長1.16百萬桶/天。

世界石油供應(yīng)

2015年非歐佩克國家石油供應(yīng)增長率修正為18萬桶/日，達到86萬桶/日，主要受經(jīng)合組織（OECD）美洲、拉丁美洲和FSU的推動。2016年，非歐佩克國家石油供應(yīng)預計將增長30萬桶/日，達到平均5769萬桶/日。歐佩克國家石油供應(yīng)預計將從本年度的19萬桶/日下降至2016年的17萬桶/日。據(jù)第二位消息人士稱，今年6月，歐佩克的產(chǎn)量增加了283 tb/d，平均為3138 mb/d。

產(chǎn)品市場和煉油業(yè)務(wù)

大西洋盆地的產(chǎn)品市場在6月份漲跌互現(xiàn)。美國駕車季節(jié)推動汽油需求量降至950萬桶/日左右，這是多年來未見的水平，為汽油裂縫蔓延提供了支撐。這在一定程度上抵消了油價中間的疲軟，使得該地區(qū)煉油廠的利潤率保持健康。亞洲的利潤率保持了上個月的水平，這是在亞洲市場持續(xù)獲得貸款支持的情況下，由于地區(qū)需求旺盛。

油輪市場

6月份，臟油輪的平均即期運價上漲了12%，主要原因是阿芙拉型油輪的運價較上月有所上漲。阿芙拉型油輪的價格受到市場活躍和多個港口卸貨延誤的支撐。蘇伊士以東和以西的清潔油輪現(xiàn)貨運價都有所上升，因為噸位需求仍然很高。

股票變動

經(jīng)合組織（OECD）5月份商業(yè)石油庫存繼續(xù)上升，達到2833mb，比5年平均水平高出約142mb，其中原油和產(chǎn)品分別顯示約115mb和26mb的盈余。從遠期覆蓋天數(shù)來看，5月份經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)股為61.8天，比5年平均水平高出約3.7天。

供需平衡

據(jù)估計，2015年歐佩克原油需求量為2920萬桶/日，比上一年估計減少了10萬桶/日，比上一年增加了20萬桶/日。2016年，歐佩克原油需求預計為3010萬桶/日，比今年的預計水平增加90萬桶/日。

Oil market highlights 

Crude Oil Price Movements 

The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $60.21/b in June, representing a decline of $1.95.Crude oil futures prices saw mixed movement with ICE Brent falling by $1.86 to average$63.75/b, while Nymex WTI gained 46 to reach $59.83/b. This caused the Brent-WTIspread to narrow to around $3.90/b for the month. Money managers further reducednet-long positions in the futures markets. 

World Economy

 World economic growth for 2016 is forecast at 3.5%, slightly higher than this year’s growthof 3.2%. The OECD economies are expected to expand by 2.1% in 2016, compared to2.0% in the current year. China is expected to decelerate to 6.5% from 6.9% in 2015, whileIndia is forecast to reach higher growth at 7.7% in 2016, compared to 7.5% this year.Positively, both Russia and Brazil are forecast to move out of recession. Risks to the globaleconomic growth forecast appear to be slightly on the downside.

 World Oil Demand 

World oil demand in 2015 is now expected to grow by 1.28 mb/d, following an upwardrevision of 0.10 mb/d since the last report. In 2016, world oil demand growth is forecast topick up, reaching 1.34 mb/d. OECD demand is expected to register positive growth of0.18 mb/d, while non-OECD consumption is projected to grow by 1.16 mb/d. 

World Oil Supply 

Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2015 has been revised up by 0.18 mb/d to stand at0.86 mb/d, mainly driven by OECD Americas, Latin America and the FSU. In 2016,non-OPEC oil supply is projected to grow by 0.30 mb/d to average 57.69 mb/d. OPECNGLs are expected to grow by 0.17 mb/d in 2016, down from 0.19 mb/d in the currentyear. In June, OPEC production increased by 283 tb/d to average 31.38 mb/d, according tosecondary sources. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations

 Product markets in the Atlantic Basin were mixed in June. The US driving season pushedup gasoline demand to around 9.5 mb/d, a level not seen in years, providing support to thegasoline crack spreads. This partially offset the weakness in the middle of the barrel,allowing refinery margins to remain healthy in the region. Asian margins retained thestrength seen in the previous month as regional demand amid a heavy maintenanceseason continued lending support to the Asian market.

 Tanker Market

 Average spot freight rates for dirty tankers went up by 12% in June, mainly as Aframaxspot freight rates increased from the previous month. Aframax rates were supported by anactive market and discharge delays at several ports. Clean tanker spot freight ratesincreased in both East and West of Suez as the tonnage demand remains high.

 Stock Movements 

OECD commercial oil stocks continued to rise in May to stand at 2,833 mb, some 142 mbhigher than the five-year average, with crude and products indicating a surplus of around115 mb and 26 mb, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercialstocks stand at 61.8 days in May, some 3.7 days higher than the five-year average. 

Balance of Supply and Demand 

Demand for OPEC crude is estimated at 29.2 mb/d in 2015, a decline of 0.1 mb from theprevious assessment and representing a gain of 0.2 mb/d over the previous year. In 2016,demand for OPEC crude is projected at 30.1 mb/d, up by 0.9 mb/d over the estimated levelfor the current year.