原油價格變動

5月份，歐佩克的參考籃子平均為43.21美元/桶，較上月上漲5.35美元。ICE布倫特原油期貨價格上漲4.31美元，至47.65美元/桶，Nymex WTI原油期貨價格上漲5.67美元，至46.80美元/桶。5月份，ICE布倫特Nymex WTI原油期貨價差從上月的2.21美元/桶大幅收窄至85美元/桶。

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)

今年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率預(yù)計(jì)為3.1%，此前一年預(yù)計(jì)為2.9%，與上月持平。經(jīng)合組織2016年的增長率仍為1.9%，略低于2015年的2.0%。主要新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的預(yù)測保持不變。今年，中國和印度繼續(xù)以6.5%和7.5%的水平擴(kuò)張。不過，據(jù)預(yù)測，巴西和俄羅斯今年仍將陷入衰退，分別萎縮3.4%和1.1%。

世界石油需求

2016年世界石油需求增長率與上一次報告的120萬桶/日持平，平均為9418萬桶/日。其他亞洲國家（以印度為首）預(yù)計(jì)將是2016年石油需求增長的主要貢獻(xiàn)者。與2015年類似，交通燃料在健康的汽車銷售和低油價環(huán)境的支持下，預(yù)計(jì)將提供預(yù)期增長的大部分。2015年的增長預(yù)期也保持不變，為154萬桶/日，平均為9298萬桶/日。

世界石油供應(yīng)

2016年非歐佩克國家石油供應(yīng)預(yù)測保持不變，預(yù)計(jì)將收縮0.74百萬桶/日，平均為56.40百萬桶/日。加拿大、巴西和哥倫比亞的下調(diào)基本抵消了美國、英國、俄羅斯和阿塞拜疆的上調(diào)。2015年非歐佩克供應(yīng)增長保持在147萬桶/日不變。歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)油氣預(yù)計(jì)今年將增加16萬桶/日，達(dá)到平均629萬桶/日。二級資料顯示，今年歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量下降了10萬桶/日，平均為32.36萬桶/日。

產(chǎn)品市場和煉油業(yè)務(wù)

輕餾分油和中餾分油的高庫存，加上春季維護(hù)季節(jié)即將結(jié)束，抵消了加拿大和法國事件的潛在影響。這導(dǎo)致大西洋盆地的邊緣降低，盡管該地區(qū)的汽油需求更強(qiáng)。與此同時，在亞洲，煉油廠利潤率略有回升，原因是在煉油廠維護(hù)高峰期，該地區(qū)汽油和汽油需求強(qiáng)勁。

油輪市場

5月份臟油輪市場的人氣普遍疲軟。超大型油輪和蘇伊士型油輪現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價下跌，原因是輕噸位需求和油輪可用性增加。不過，阿芙拉型油輪的即期運(yùn)價有所提高。由于蘇伊士以西的低運(yùn)價報告，清潔油輪運(yùn)價平均下降。5月份，全球租船活動下降，中東和歐佩克（OPEC）的出航量逐月下降。

股票變動

經(jīng)合組織（OECD）4月份商業(yè)石油庫存小幅上升，至30460億桶。在這一水平上，oeccommercial石油庫存比最近五年的平均水平高出約338mb，crudeindication的盈余較低，為194mb，產(chǎn)品基本持平于144mb。就遠(yuǎn)期覆蓋日而言，經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)股為66.4天，比五年期平均水平高出約7.1天。

供需平衡

預(yù)計(jì)2016年歐佩克原油需求為3150萬桶/日，與上次報告持平，比去年增加180萬桶/日。2015年，歐佩克原油需求量也沒有變化，平均為2970萬桶/日，較上年下降了10萬桶/日。

Crude Oil Price Movements 

The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $43.21/b in May, representing a gain of $5.35 overthe previous month. ICE Brent ended up $4.31 at $47.65/b, while Nymex WTI rose $5.67to $46.80/b. The ICE Brent-Nymex WTI spread narrowed significantly to 85/b in May from$2.21/b the month before. 

World Economy 

World economic growth is forecast at 3.1% for this year, after estimated growth of 2.9% theyear before, both unchanged from the previous month. OECD growth in 2016 remains at1.9%, slightly below the 2.0% seen in 2015. The forecast for the major emergingeconomies remains unchanged. China and India continue to expand this year at aconsiderable level of 6.5% and 7.5%, respectively. Brazil and Russia, however, areforecast to remain in recession this year, contracting by 3.4% and 1.1%, respectively. 

World Oil Demand 

World oil demand growth for 2016 remains unchanged from the previous report at1.20 mb/d to average 94.18 mb/d. Other Asia, led by India, is anticipated to be the maincontributor to oil demand growth in 2016. Similar to 2015, transportation fuels, supportedby healthy vehicle sales and the low oil price environment, are projected to provide the bulkof expected growth. The 2015 growth estimate was also left unchanged at 1.54 mb/d toaverage 92.98 mb/d. 

World Oil Supply 

The forecast for non-OPEC oil supply in 2016 remains unchanged, with a contraction of0.74 mb/d expected to average 56.40 mb/d. The downward revisions in Canada, Brazil andColombia broadly offset upward revisions in the US, UK, Russia and Azerbaijan. NonOPECsupply growth in 2015 was left unchanged at 1.47 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and nonconventionalsare expected to increase by 0.16 mb/d to average 6.29 mb/d this year. InMay, secondary sources show OPEC crude oil production decreased by 0.1 mb/d toaverage 32.36 mb/d. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

The high level of inventories in light and middle distillates, along with the approaching endof the spring maintenance season, offset the potential impact from events in Canada andFrance. This caused margins to edge lower in the Atlantic Basin, despite stronger gasolinedemand in the region. Meanwhile, in Asia, refinery margins showed a slight recovery onthe back of stronger regional gasoline and gasoil demand amid a peak in refinerymaintenance. 

Tanker Market 

Sentiment in the dirty tanker market was generally weak in May. VLCC and Suezmax spotfreight rates declined on the back of light tonnage demand and increased tankeravailability. However, Aframax spot freight rates improved. Clean tanker freight ratesdeclined on average, as a result of low freight rates reported for West of Suez. In May,global chartering activities dropped and sailings from the Middle East, and OPEC morebroadly, were lower month-on-month. 

Stock Movements 

OECD commercial oil stocks rose slightly in April to stand at 3,046 mb. At this level, OECDcommercial oil stocks are around 338 mb above the latest five-year average, with crudeindicating a lower surplus of 194 mb and products broadly flat at 144 mb. In terms of daysof forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 66.4 days, some 7.1 days higher thanthe five-year average. 

Balance of Supply and Demand 

Demand for OPEC crude in 2016 is projected at 31.5 mb/d, unchanged from the last reportand 1.8 mb/d higher than last year. For 2015, demand for OPEC crude is also unchanged,averaging 29.7 mb/d, which represents a decline of 0.1 mb/d from the previous year.