原油價(jià)格變動(dòng)              

去年12月，歐佩克的參考籃子平均為59.46美元/桶，此前下降了16.11美元或21%。按年率計(jì)算，2014年該籃子的平均價(jià)格為96.29美元/桶，比上一年上漲了9.58美元。去年12月，ICE布倫特原油價(jià)格暴跌16.36美元，至63.27美元/桶，年內(nèi)均價(jià)為99.45美元/桶。紐約商品交易所WTI指數(shù)下跌16.52美元，至59.29美元/桶，年價(jià)格為92.97美元/桶。布倫特WTI價(jià)差為3.98美元/桶。             

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)              

2014年和2015年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率與上個(gè)月持平，分別為3.2%和3.6%。經(jīng)合組織2014年的增長預(yù)期不變，為1.8%，但2015年的預(yù)測(cè)已從2.1%修訂為2.2%。2015年，中國和印度的預(yù)測(cè)值保持不變，分別為7.2%和5.8%。              

世界石油需求              

據(jù)估計(jì)，2014年全球石油需求增長了95萬桶/日，比上個(gè)月的平均水平提高了20噸/日。此次調(diào)整主要反映了經(jīng)合組織（OECD）美國和中國的石油需求數(shù)據(jù)好于預(yù)期。2015年，世界石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將增加115萬桶/日，此前，由于經(jīng)合組織（OECD）美國和其他亞洲國家對(duì)石油需求的預(yù)期，世界石油需求將上調(diào)30 tb/d d。              

世界石油供應(yīng)              

據(jù)估計(jì)，2014年非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)量增長了198萬桶/日，較上一份報(bào)告的260噸/日進(jìn)行了年度修正，原因是今年年底的增長率高于預(yù)期。2015年，非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將增長128萬桶/日，較上一份報(bào)告向下修正了80噸/日。預(yù)計(jì)2015年歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)液體的平均供應(yīng)量為603萬桶/日，高于2014年的583萬桶/日。根據(jù)第二來源，去年12月，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量平均為320萬桶/日，比上個(gè)月增加了14萬桶/日。              

產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)和煉油業(yè)務(wù)              

由于該地區(qū)汽油供應(yīng)過剩，汽油和中間餾分油裂縫的減少影響了利潤率，大西洋盆地的產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)在12月份走弱。由于冬季季節(jié)性需求和桶頂和桶底的積極表現(xiàn)抵消了蒸餾水供應(yīng)的增加，亞洲市場(chǎng)僅經(jīng)歷了小幅下跌。              

油輪市場(chǎng)              

臟油輪的運(yùn)價(jià)在12月份漲跌不一。超大型油輪繼續(xù)恢復(fù)自2014年第四季度初以來的漲幅，較上個(gè)月增長16%。超大型油輪運(yùn)價(jià)的提高是由于活躍的市場(chǎng)和亞洲高噸位需求的結(jié)果。蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪的表現(xiàn)均為負(fù)面，分別較上月平均下降9%和29%。歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量較上月平均下降9.2%，至1163萬桶/日。              

股票變動(dòng)              

經(jīng)合組織（OECD）11月份商業(yè)石油庫存下降約1000萬桶，至27100萬桶。在這個(gè)水平上，庫存比過去五年的平均水平高出2030萬件。原油顯示盈余3820萬桶，而產(chǎn)品庫存仍低于五年平均水平1790萬桶。就遠(yuǎn)期覆蓋天數(shù)而言，經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)股為58.7天，比五年平均水平高出一天。              

供需平衡              

據(jù)估計(jì)，2014年歐佩克原油需求量為2910萬桶/日，較上一份報(bào)告修正了20萬桶/日。2015年，歐佩克原油需求量預(yù)計(jì)為2880萬桶/日，下調(diào)后為10萬桶/日。

Crude Oil Price Movements 

The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $59.46/b in December, following a decline of$16.11 or 21%. In annual terms, the Basket averaged $96.29/b in 2014, representing adecline of $9.58 from the previous year. ICE Brent in December plunged $16.36 to stand at$63.27/b, averaging $99.45/b for the year. Nymex WTI lost $16.52 to stand at $59.29/b inDecember, for a yearly value of $92.97/b. The Brent-WTI spread stood at $3.98/b. 

World Economy 

World economic growth for 2014 and 2015 remains unchanged from the previousmonth at 3.2% and 3.6%, respectively. The OECD growth estimate is unchanged at1.8% for 2014, but the 2015 forecast has been revised to 2.2% from 2.1%. Theforecasts for China and India remain unchanged at 7.2% and 5.8% in 2015,respectively. 

World Oil Demand 

Global oil demand is estimated to have grown by 0.95 mb/d in 2014, representing anupward revision of 20 tb/d from the previous month. The adjustment mainly reflectsbetter-than-expected oil demand data from OECD America and China. In 2015, worldoil demand is anticipated to rise by 1.15 mb/d, following an upward revision of 30 tb/ddue to expectations of higher oil requirements in OECD America and Other Asia. 

World Oil Supply 

Non-OPEC oil supply is estimated to have grown by 1.98 mb/d in 2014, following anupward revision of 260 tb/d from the previous report, driven by higher than expectedgrowth seen at the end of the year. In 2015, non-OPEC oil supply is projected to growby 1.28 mb/d, representing a downward revision of 80 tb/d from the previous report.OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are expected to average 6.03 mb/d in 2015,up from 5.83 mb/d in 2014. In December, OPEC crude oil production averaged30.20 mb/d, according to secondary sources, an increase of 0.14 mb/d over theprevious month. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

Product markets in the Atlantic Basin weakened in December as margins were affectedby the drop in the gasoline and middle distillates cracks amid an oversupply of gasolinein the region. The Asian market experienced only a slight drop as increased distillatesupplies were offset by winter seasonal demand and the positive performance at thetop and bottom of the barrel. 

Tanker Market 

Freight rates for dirty tankers saw mixed movements in December. VLCCs continued torealise the gains seen since the beginning of 4Q14, increasing by 16% from the monthbefore. The improvements seen in VLCC freight rates came as a result of an activemarket and high Asian tonnage demand. Both Suezmax and Aframax saw a negativeperformance, declining by 9% and 29%, respectively, on average from a month earlier.OPEC spot fixtures dropped by 9.2% from the previous month to average 11.63 mb/d. 

Stock Movements

 OECD commercial oil stocks fell in November by around 10 mb to stand at 2,710 mb. Atthis level, inventories were 20.3 mb higher than the last five-year average. Crudeindicated a surplus of 38.2 mb, while product stocks remained 17.9 mb below thefive-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at58.7 days, one day above the five-year average. 

Balance of Supply and Demand 

Demand for OPEC crude is estimated at 29.1 mb/d in 2014, representing a revision of0.2 mb/d from the last report. In 2015, required OPEC crude is projected at 28.8 mb/d,following a downward adjustment of 0.1 mb/d.