石油輸出國(guó)組織（OPEC）9月份參考價(jià)格籃子連續(xù)第四個(gè)月上漲，上漲1.21美元/桶，至平均108.73美元/桶。本月初，原油期貨價(jià)格因供應(yīng)中斷和地緣政治緊張局勢(shì)加劇而出現(xiàn)一定上升勢(shì)頭。然而，隨著地緣政治擔(dān)憂的加劇，大西洋兩岸的油價(jià)開(kāi)始穩(wěn)步下跌，約為8美元/桶。中東和北非地區(qū)和蘇丹的供應(yīng)前景有所改善，主要供應(yīng)商和國(guó)際石油機(jī)構(gòu)保證市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)充足，也緩解了原油上漲的壓力石油價(jià)格。隨著原油期貨市場(chǎng)反彈的結(jié)束，基金經(jīng)理們?cè)?月底大幅減少了創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的凈持倉(cāng)量。紐約商品交易所（Nymex）9月份前一個(gè)月的WTI合約下跌30美元至106.24美元，布倫特原油價(jià)格小幅上漲至平均111.25美元/桶。2013年和2014年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率分別保持在2.9%和3.5%不變，盡管美國(guó)預(yù)算僵局的持續(xù)發(fā)展需要密切監(jiān)控。美國(guó)2013年的增長(zhǎng)率已從1.7%下調(diào)至1.6%，而2014年的預(yù)測(cè)仍為2.5%。歐元區(qū)本年度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期已從-0.5%上調(diào)至-0.3%，從2014年的0.6%上調(diào)至0.7%。日本對(duì)2013年的預(yù)測(cè)從1.7%上調(diào)至1.9%，2014年的增長(zhǎng)從1.4%上調(diào)至1.5%。印度受到資本流動(dòng)的影響，2013年的預(yù)測(cè)下調(diào)至5.0%，2014年的預(yù)測(cè)下調(diào)至5.8%。中國(guó)2013年和2014年的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期分別保持在7.6%和7.7%不變。據(jù)估計(jì)，2013年世界石油需求平均為8970萬(wàn)桶/日，較上年增長(zhǎng)80萬(wàn)桶/日，與上一份報(bào)告持平。經(jīng)合組織亞太地區(qū)、其他亞洲和金融服務(wù)聯(lián)盟的下調(diào)幾乎完全抵消了經(jīng)合組織美洲和歐洲的上調(diào)。2014年，增長(zhǎng)預(yù)計(jì)將增加至約100萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到9080萬(wàn)桶/日。非經(jīng)合組織國(guó)家預(yù)計(jì)將以120萬(wàn)桶/日的速度引領(lǐng)石油需求增長(zhǎng)，而經(jīng)合組織的消費(fèi)預(yù)計(jì)將繼續(xù)下降，但下降速度較低，為20萬(wàn)桶/日。非歐佩克國(guó)家的石油供應(yīng)估計(jì)為5410萬(wàn)桶/日，此前上調(diào)了10萬(wàn)桶/日，增長(zhǎng)110萬(wàn)桶/日。向上調(diào)整的主要原因是美國(guó)、巴西、哈薩克斯坦、南蘇丹和蘇丹的供應(yīng)高于預(yù)期。2014年，非歐佩克國(guó)家的石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將增加120萬(wàn)桶/日，美國(guó)、加拿大、巴西、南蘇丹和蘇丹的預(yù)期增長(zhǎng)為支撐。歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油預(yù)計(jì)將在2013年和2014年分別增加0.2mb/d in和0.1Mb/d。據(jù)二級(jí)消息人士透露，9月份，歐佩克原油總產(chǎn)量平均為305mb/d，較上月下降390tb/d，9月份產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)情緒表現(xiàn)喜憂參半。中間餾分油在市場(chǎng)人氣趨緊的背景下依然健康。相比之下，隨著大西洋盆地駕駛季節(jié)的逐漸減少，以及亞洲國(guó)家季節(jié)性需求的下降，汽油價(jià)格暴跌。加上燃料油市場(chǎng)人氣減弱，導(dǎo)致煉油廠利潤(rùn)率繼續(xù)保持全球下降趨勢(shì)。盡管VLCCs僅較上月小幅增長(zhǎng)，但9月份看跌情緒繼續(xù)主導(dǎo)原油油輪市場(chǎng)。運(yùn)價(jià)在很大程度上仍處于壓力之下，這主要是由于高噸位的可用性和有限的需求。由于缺乏噸位需求，蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪的運(yùn)價(jià)在9月份有所下降。清潔油輪費(fèi)率參差不齊。今年9月，歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量平均上升至1321萬(wàn)桶/日，主要是由于中東地區(qū)的原油供應(yīng)量增加。8月份，經(jīng)合組織的商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存總量下降了1000萬(wàn)桶，顯示出約6800萬(wàn)桶的赤字，低于原油和產(chǎn)品的五年平均水平。就遠(yuǎn)期覆蓋率而言，OEC商業(yè)庫(kù)存為58.6天，與五年平均水平相比，盈余為0.1天。9月份的初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國(guó)商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存增長(zhǎng)450萬(wàn)桶，扭轉(zhuǎn)了過(guò)去兩個(gè)月的下降趨勢(shì)，與五年平均水平相比，盈余為33萬(wàn)桶。這一增長(zhǎng)分為原油和產(chǎn)品兩部分，分別顯示出2370萬(wàn)桶和920萬(wàn)桶的盈余。2013年，歐佩克原油的平均需求量估計(jì)為2990萬(wàn)桶/日，與上一份報(bào)告持平，比2012年下降了50萬(wàn)桶/日。2014年，歐佩克原油需求預(yù)計(jì)為2960萬(wàn)桶/日，與上一份報(bào)告一致，與今年相比下降了30萬(wàn)桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket rose for the fourth consecutive month in September, increasing by$1.21/b to average $108.73/b. Crude oil futures prices began the month with some upwardmomentum fuelled by supply outages and a spike in geopolitical tensions. However, with the easingof geopolitical concerns, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic began to drop steadily, sheddingsome $8/b. An improvement in supply prospects from the MENA region and Sudan, along withassurances by major suppliers and international oil agencies that the market was well-supplied, alsodampened the upward pressure on crude oil prices. As the rally in the crude futures market came toend, money managers sharply reduced their record-high net length positions at the end ofSeptember. On the Nymex, the front-month WTI contract fell 30 to $106.24 in September, whileICE Brent improved slightly to average $111.25/b.World economic growth for 2013 and 2014 remains unchanged at 2.9% and 3.5% respectively,although ongoing developments regarding the budget stand-off in the US requires close monitoring.US growth for 2013 has been revised down to 1.6% from 1.7%, while the 2014 forecast remains at2.5%. The Euro-zone growth forecast for the current year has been revised up to -0.3% from -0.5%and to 0.7% from 0.6% for 2014. Japan’s forecast for 2013 has been revised up to 1.9% from 1.7%and growth for 2014 has been revised to 1.5% from 1.4%. India has been impacted by capitaloutflows and its 2013 forecast has been lowered to 5.0% and its 2014 forecast reduced to 5.8%.China’s growth expectations remain unchanged at 7.6% and 7.7% for 2013 and 2014, respectively. World oil demand is estimated to average 89.7 mb/d in 2013, representing growth of 0.8 mb/dcompared to the previous year, and unchanged from the previous report. Upward revisions in OECDAmericas and Europe were almost entirely offset by downward adjustments in OECD Asia Pacific,Other Asia and the FSU. For 2014, growth is expected to increase to around 1.0 mb/d to reach to90.8 mb/d. Non-OECD countries are projected to lead oil demand growth with 1.2 mb/d, whileOECD consumption is seen continuing to decline but at a lower rate of 0.2 mb/d.Non-OPEC oil supply is estimated at 54.1 mb/d, following an upward revision of 0.1 mb/d,representing growth of 1.1 mb/d. The upward adjustment was due mainly to higher-than-expectedsupply from the US, Brazil, Kazakhstan and South Sudan & Sudan. In 2014, non-OPEC oil supply isexpected to increase by 1.2 mb/d, supported by anticipated growth in the US, Canada, Brazil, andSouth Sudan & Sudan. OPEC NGLs and nonconventional oils are expected to increase by 0.2 mb/din 2013 and 0.1 mb/d in 2014. In September, total OPEC crude production averaged 30.05 mb/d,according to secondary sources, representing a drop of 390 tb/d from the previous month.Product market sentiment showed a mixed performance in September. Middle distillates remainedrelatively healthy on the back of tightening sentiment. In contrast, gasoline plummeted with thewinding down of the driving season in the Atlantic basin, as well as declining seasonal demand inAsia countries. Combined with a weakening fuel oil market sentiment, this caused refinery marginsto continue their worldwide downward trend.Bearish sentiment continued to dominate the crude oil tanker market in September, despite VLCCsregistering only a slight rate increase from last month. Freight rates remain largely under pressuredue mainly to high tonnage availability and limited demand. Suezmax and Aframax freight rateswere lower in September due to a lack of tonnage demand. Clean tanker rates were mixed. InSeptember, OPEC spot fixtures rose to average 13.21 mb/d, mainly due to increased Middle Eastto-Eastfixtures.Total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 10.0 mb in August to show a deficit of around 68 mb withthe five-year average, divided between crude and products. In terms of forward cover, OECDcommercial stocks stood at 58.6 days, a surplus of 0.1 days compared to the five-year average.Preliminary data for September shows US commercial oil stocks rose 4.5 mb – reversing the drop oflast two months – to indicate a surplus of 33.0 mb with the five-year average. This gain was dividedbetween crude and products, which indicated surpluses of 23.7 mb and 9.2 mb, respectively.Demand for OPEC crude in 2013 is estimated to average 29.9 mb/d, unchanged from the previousreport, representing a decline of 0.5 mb/d from 2012. In 2014, demand for OPEC crude is expectedat 29.6 mb/d, also in line with the previous report, representing a decline of 0.3 mb/d compared tothe current year.