美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇具有強(qiáng)勁的非通脹性擴(kuò)張的特點(diǎn)，這種擴(kuò)張是由國(guó)內(nèi)需求的高水平和不斷增長(zhǎng)導(dǎo)致的。5月份的通脹數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國(guó)6月份可能的利率上升幅度僅為0.25%，這不應(yīng)影響消費(fèi)者或投資支出。對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定的主要威脅仍然是貿(mào)易不平衡。今年4月，美國(guó)貿(mào)易逆差擴(kuò)大至483億美元的歷史最高紀(jì)錄，美元的高位表明，這一問(wèn)題在短期內(nèi)不會(huì)得到解決。

歐元區(qū)正在復(fù)蘇，但尚未在整個(gè)地區(qū)蔓延。國(guó)內(nèi)需求不斷增長(zhǎng)，西班牙也出現(xiàn)了一些改善跡象，但德國(guó)和荷蘭消費(fèi)者仍然非常謹(jǐn)慎。在德國(guó)，復(fù)蘇集中在那些受益于強(qiáng)勁海外需求的工業(yè)部門。就業(yè)水平下降繼續(xù)削弱消費(fèi)者信心。相比之下，日本國(guó)內(nèi)需求繼續(xù)強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)。一季度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率按年率調(diào)整為6%，有跡象表明，銀行貸款正在增加，為股票建設(shè)和投資提供資金。

經(jīng)合組織（OECD）地區(qū)2004年的預(yù)測(cè)增長(zhǎng)了0.1%，GDP預(yù)計(jì)增長(zhǎng)3.5%。美國(guó)的預(yù)測(cè)不變，為4.7%，而日本的預(yù)測(cè)為3.8%，增長(zhǎng)了0.9%。歐元區(qū)預(yù)測(cè)值保持在1.8%不變，中國(guó)和俄羅斯的預(yù)測(cè)值分別保持在8.8%和7%不變。對(duì)非洲、拉丁美洲、亞洲（不包括日本）和發(fā)展中國(guó)家的預(yù)測(cè)也沒(méi)有改變。2004年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)計(jì)增長(zhǎng)4.8%，比上個(gè)月的預(yù)測(cè)增長(zhǎng)0.1%。

自1987年通過(guò)以來(lái)，歐佩克的參考籃子從未接近今年5月達(dá)到的水平。再次接近4美元/桶，或超過(guò)12%，5月份籃子平均價(jià)格達(dá)到36.27美元/桶的歷史最高點(diǎn)，此外，5月17日的日均價(jià)格甚至接近難以想象的38美元/桶大關(guān)。在6月的第一周，籃子價(jià)格下跌了0.21美元/桶，至36.49美元/桶，而在本月的第二周，籃子價(jià)格下跌了1.94美元/桶，至34.55美元/桶，然后在6月15日跌至33.72美元/桶，主要是由于歐佩克在6月3日決定提高產(chǎn)量以平息供應(yīng)擔(dān)憂。

美國(guó)駕車季節(jié)即將到來(lái)的強(qiáng)勁需求，幫助汽油平均價(jià)格在5月份超越了國(guó)內(nèi)和世界石油市場(chǎng)上的markercrude同行。這導(dǎo)致三大煉油中心的煉油利潤(rùn)率創(chuàng)下新高。

歐佩克地區(qū)現(xiàn)貨租船業(yè)務(wù)恢復(fù)上月的虧損，5月份增長(zhǎng)約26%或423萬(wàn)桶/日，至1610萬(wàn)桶/日，比一年前的水平高出約200萬(wàn)桶/日。歐佩克現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量的增加，其中中東租船約占一半，主要是由于歐佩克石油產(chǎn)量比上個(gè)月增加，因?yàn)榇蠖鄶?shù)歐佩克成員國(guó)為了降低油價(jià)而超過(guò)了配額。5月份，所有主要航線和所有行業(yè)的原油運(yùn)價(jià)都明顯受益于高現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)，特別是中東向長(zhǎng)途航線的超大型油輪和地中海內(nèi)的阿芙拉型油輪以及從那里到西北歐的超大型油輪。由于運(yùn)價(jià)恢復(fù)了前一個(gè)月的一部分，成品油輪市場(chǎng)度過(guò)了一個(gè)非常好的月份損失慘重。

北美消費(fèi)數(shù)據(jù)的上調(diào)導(dǎo)致了與2003年世界石油需求估計(jì)值相似的0.08百萬(wàn)桶/日的調(diào)整。第一季度和第二季度的需求遠(yuǎn)強(qiáng)于預(yù)期，導(dǎo)致預(yù)測(cè)世界2004年需求進(jìn)一步向上修正為0.17百萬(wàn)桶/日，目前為80.58百萬(wàn)桶/日。2004年的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)也提高到1.90百萬(wàn)桶/日，相當(dāng)于2.41%，自1997年以來(lái)的最高需求增長(zhǎng)。中國(guó)仍然是預(yù)測(cè)2004年石油需求增長(zhǎng)的最大貢獻(xiàn)者，預(yù)計(jì)消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)72萬(wàn)桶/日，占世界增長(zhǎng)的近38%。

根據(jù)第二來(lái)源，歐佩克5月份的原油產(chǎn)量估計(jì)為2828萬(wàn)桶/日，比4月份的數(shù)字高出24萬(wàn)桶/日。2003年非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)量估計(jì)為4866萬(wàn)桶/日，比2002年的4776萬(wàn)桶/日高出90萬(wàn)桶/日。預(yù)計(jì)2004年非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)量將達(dá)到5000萬(wàn)桶/日，比2003年的估計(jì)增加134萬(wàn)桶/日。2002年和2003年FSU的凈出口量估計(jì)分別為556MB/d和646MB/d，預(yù)計(jì)2004年將增至737MB/d。

2004年5月，美國(guó)商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存繼續(xù)上個(gè)月的趨勢(shì)，季節(jié)性增長(zhǎng)1650萬(wàn)桶，這使得6月上半月的同比順差擴(kuò)大到5.1%左右。歐洲石油庫(kù)存總量顯示為320萬(wàn)桶，其中產(chǎn)品庫(kù)存的大幅增長(zhǎng)抵消了原油的消耗。日本石油庫(kù)存在2004年4月下降了280萬(wàn)桶，主要是由于原油庫(kù)存的大幅下降，導(dǎo)致日本石油庫(kù)存同比短缺6.6%。

The US recovery has the character of a strong, non-inflationary expansion led by a high and growing level ofdomestic demand. The May inflation data suggest that the probable rise in US interest rates in June will only be0.25%, which should not derail consumer or investment spending. The major threat to economic stability remains thetrade imbalance. The deficit on the US trade account widened to an all-time record of $48.3 billion in April and thehigh level of the dollar indicates that this problem will not be resolved in the near term.

  The Euro-zone recovery is under way but has not spread throughout the region. Domestic demand is growing inFrance and Spain with some signs of improvement in Italy but German and Dutch consumers remain very cautious.In Germany the recovery is concentrated in those industrial sectors which benefit from strong overseas demand.Falling levels of employment continue to weaken consumer confidence. In contrast domestic demand in Japancontinues to grow strongly. Economic growth for the first quarter was revised up to 6% at an annual rate and thereare signs that bank lending is rising to finance stockbuilding and investment. 

The 2004 forecast for the OECD region has been raised by 0.1% and GDP is expected to grow 3.5%. The forecast forthe USA is unchanged at 4.7%, while the Japanese forecast is now 3.8%, an increase of 0.9%. The Euro-zoneforecast remains unchanged at 1.8%, along with the forecasts for China and Russia, which are holding steady at 8.8%and 7% respectively. The forecasts for Africa, Latin America, Asia (excluding Japan) and Developing Countries as awhole are also unchanged. The world economy is projected to grow by 4.8% in 2004, a 0.1% increase over lastmonth’s forecast. 

Since its adoption in 1987, the OPEC Reference Basket has never come close to the level reached this May. With again of almost $4/b, or more than 12%, the Basket average for May reached an all time high of $36.27/b. Moreover,the daily average for 17 May even approached the unimaginable $38/b mark. In the first week of June, the Basketdecreased by $0.21/b to $36.49/b, while in the second week of the month it lost $1.94/b to register $34.55/b beforedropping to $33.72/b on 15 June, mainly due to OPEC’s decision on 3 June to raise output to calm supply concerns. 

The impending robust demand of the US driving season helped average gasoline prices to outperform their markercrude counterparts in May, both domestically and in the world oil markets. This led refining margins to new recordhighs in the three main refining centres.

  OPEC area spot-chartering regained last month’s losses, increasing by about 26% or 4.23 mb/d to 16.10 mb/d in May,which was about 2 mb/d higher than the level observed a year ago. The rise in OPEC spot fixtures of which Middle Eastchartering contributed about half, was mainly due to the increase of OPEC oil production over the previous month asmost OPEC Member Countries exceeded their quotas in an attempt to cool oil prices. Crude oil freight rates across allmain routes and for all sectors benefited noticeably from high spot fixtures during May, especially VLCCs on theMiddle East eastbound long-haul route and AFRAMAX within the Mediterranean and from there to NW Europe.The product tanker market enjoyed a very good month as rates regained part of the previous month’s heavy losses.

An upward revision in the North American consumption data has resulted in a similar adjustment of 0.08 mb/d to the2003 world oil demand estimate. Much stronger than expected demand in the first quarter and part of the second has ledto a further upward revision of 0.17 mb/d to the forecast world 2004 demand, which now stands at 80.58 mb/d. The2004 growth forecast has also been raised to 1.90 mb/d equivalent to 2.41%, the highest demand increment since 1997.China remains the top contributor to forecast 2004 oil demand growth with an expected 0.72 mb/d rise in consumption,which represents close to 38% of world growth. 

OPEC crude oil production in May, based on secondary sources, is estimated at 28.28 mb/d, 0.24 mb/d above therevised April figure. Non-OPEC oil supply for 2003 is estimated at 48.66 mb/d, which is 0.90 mb/d above the47.76 mb/d estimated 2002 figure. Non-OPEC supply in 2004 is expected to reach 50.00 mb/d, an increase of1.34 mb/d over the 2003 estimate. Net FSU exports for 2002 and 2003 are estimated at 5.56 mb/d and 6.46 mb/drespectively, and are expected to rise to 7.37 mb/d in 2004. 

In May 2004, US commercial oil stocks continued the previous month’s trend, rising a seasonal 16.5 mb, whichwidened the y-o-y surplus to around 5.1% in the first half of June. Total oil stocks in Europe displayed a build of3.2 mb, where a large increase in product stocks offset the draw on crude oil. The y-o-y surplus is now around 0.7%.Japanese oil stocks in April 2004 fell 2.8 mb, mainly on a large decrease in crude oil stocks, for a y-o-y shortage of6.6%.