石油輸出國組織（OPEC）的參考價格籃子在9月份又增加了48個，達到平均74.63美元/桶，為4月份以來的最高水平。期貨市場呈現(xiàn)出混合格局。紐約商品交易所（Nymex）WTI前月均價為75.55美元/桶，較8月下跌1.12美元，而ICE布倫特原油連續(xù)第二個月上漲，上漲1.30美元至78.42美元/桶。10月初，宏觀經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)改善和美元走軟支撐了市場，推動歐佩克原油籃子自5月初以來首次突破81美元/桶。10月11日，布倫特原油價格達到80.44美元/桶。世界經(jīng)濟繼續(xù)以低于平均水平的速度增長。全球經(jīng)濟增長預測2010年和2011年分別為3.9%和3.6%。美國預測2010年和2011年分別為2.6%和2.3%，與之前的報告一致。日本2010年的預測上調了0.3個百分點，至2.8%，但2011年仍保持在1.3%不變。歐元區(qū)預計2010年和2011年分別增長1.2%和1.0%，與上月持平。中國和印度有望繼續(xù)增長。到目前為止，中國在經(jīng)濟降溫方面取得了成功，2010年和2011年的經(jīng)濟增長預期分別為9.5%和8.6%。預計印度2010年和2011年將分別增長8.2%和7.7%。2010年世界石油需求增長率目前為110萬桶/日，此前的報告上調了10萬桶/日，受今年上半年強于預期、刺激拉動型經(jīng)濟增長的推動。盡管出現(xiàn)了一些動蕩和挫折，但全球經(jīng)濟復蘇繼續(xù)為石油消費提供支持。盡管第三季度的石油需求受到夏季溫暖天氣和駕駛季節(jié)的支撐，但預計不會像前兩個季度那樣強勁。工業(yè)活動的復蘇對全球工業(yè)燃料需求產(chǎn)生了積極影響。2011年，全球石油需求預計將增長100萬桶/日，與上個月持平，預計下半年需求增長將更強勁。2010年，非歐佩克國家石油供應預計將增長100萬桶/日，此前一個月石油供應量將上調10萬桶/日，主要原因是來自加拿大、墨西哥和中國的供應高于預期。2011年，在巴西、加拿大、阿塞拜疆和哈薩克斯坦的預期增長的支持下，非歐佩克國家的石油供應預計將增長360 tb/d。預計2011年歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油產(chǎn)量將增長50萬桶/日，今年增長40萬桶/日。根據(jù)第二來源，9月份，歐佩克原油總產(chǎn)量平均為2908萬桶/日，比上個月略有下降30噸/日。冬季來臨前，全球范圍內強勁的餾出油需求為產(chǎn)品市場提供了一定的支撐，盡管這部分被疲弱的汽油需求和亞洲燃料油市場供過于求。煉油廠維修期間輕質餾分油的高庫存，加上燃料油供應過剩，將使產(chǎn)品市場人氣持續(xù)看跌，并在未來幾個月繼續(xù)打壓煉油廠利潤率。9月份，油輪市場上所有航線的運價都在下降。高噸可用性加上季節(jié)性的石油需求下降，導致運費下降。在原油貨運市場，超大型油輪即期運價下跌8.7%，蘇伊士型油輪即期運價下跌18.8%，弗拉馬克斯型油輪即期運價下跌13.7%。蘇伊士以東的現(xiàn)貨價格下跌了9.4%，而蘇伊士以西的航線價格下跌了12.1%。美國商業(yè)股扭轉了過去5個月的上漲趨勢，在9月份下跌了440萬股。然而，與五年平均水平相比，順差仍然非常高，達到1.18億英鎊。其中大部分來自于下跌370萬英鎊的產(chǎn)品，而原油庫存則小幅下跌80萬英鎊。8月份最新的月度數(shù)據(jù)顯示，印度石油商業(yè)庫存下降670萬桶，比季節(jié)性正常水平低1100萬桶左右。初步跡象顯示，截至9月底，日本商業(yè)石油庫存總量進一步下降了100萬桶。2010年，歐佩克原油的需求量估計為2860萬桶/日，比上一份報告的需求量低約10萬桶/日。這意味著，與2009年歐佩克原油需求相比，日產(chǎn)量下降了30萬桶。2011年，對歐佩克原油的平均需求預計為2880萬桶/日，與之前的評估持平，比上一年增加約20萬桶/日。

? The OPEC Reference Basket increased a further 48 in September to average $74.63/b, thehighest since April. The futures market saw mixed patterns. Nymex WTI front month averaged$75.55/b, down $1.12 from August, while ICE Brent rose for the second month in a row, gaining$1.30 to $78.42/b. In early October, improvement in macroeconomic data and the weaker dollarsupported the market, pushing the OPEC Basket above $81/b for the first time since early May. WTIrecovered to move beyond $83/b and ICE Brent reached more than $85/b. On 11 October, theBasket stood at $80.44/b.? The world economy continues to expand at below-average levels. The global growth forecastsremain unchanged at 3.9% for 2010 and 3.6% for 2011. The US forecast stands at 2.6% in 2010and 2.3% in 2011, in line with the previous report. Japan’s forecast was revised up 0.3 points to2.8% in 2010, but remained unchanged at 1.3% in 2011. The Euro-zone is forecast to grow at 1.2%in 2010 and 1.0% in 2011, unchanged from the previous month. China and India are expected tocontinue their growth. So far, China has been successful in cooling down its economy with growthexpectations at 9.5% in 2010 and 8.6% in 2011. India is forecast to grow by 8.2% in 2010 and 7.7%in 2011.? World oil demand growth in 2010 now stands at 1.1 mb/d, following an upward revision of 0.1 mb/dfrom the previous report, driven by the stronger-than-expected, stimulus-led economic growth in thefirst half of the year. Despite some turbulence and setbacks, the global economic recovery continuesto provide support for oil consumption. While oil demand in the third quarter has been supported bywarm summer weather along with the driving season, however, it is not expected to be as strong asin the previous two quarters. The recovery in industrial activities has positively affected industrial fueldemand across the globe. In 2011, global oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.0 mb/d, unchangedfrom the last month, with demand growth anticipated to be stronger in the second half of the year.? Non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to increase by 1.0 mb/d in 2010, following an upward revisionof 0.1 mb/d from the previous month, mainly due to higher-than-expected supply from Canada,Mexico and China. In 2011, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow 360 tb/d, supported byanticipated growth in Brazil, Canada, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan. OPEC NGLs and nonconventionaloils are forecast to increase by 0.5 mb/d in 2011, following growth of 0.4 mb/d thisyear. In September, total OPEC crude oil production averaged 29.08 mb/d according tosecondary sources, representing a slight decline of 30 tb/d over the previous month.? Strong distillate demand across the globe ahead of the winter season has provided some support forproduct markets, although this has been partially offset by weak gasoline demand and oversupplyin the Asian fuel oil market. High stocks for light distillates amid refinery maintenance, combined withthe oversupply in fuel oil, will keep product market sentiment bearish and continue to weigh onrefinery margins over the coming months.? The tanker market has experienced declining rates on all routes in September. High tonnageavailability combined with seasonally lower oil demand has resulted in reduced freight rates. In thecrude freight market, VLCC spot rates declined 8.7%, Suezmax rates decreased 18.8% andAframax freight rates fell by 13.7% m-o-m. Product spot freights also saw a negative performance inSeptember. East of Suez spot rates slumped by 9.4%, while West of Suez routes declined 12.1%.? US commercial stocks reversed the upward trend seen over the last five months to decline by4.4 mb in September. However, the surplus with the five-year average remained very high at118 mb. The bulk of this draw came from products which fell by 3.7 mb, while crude stocks droppedslightly by 0.8 mb. The most recent monthly data for August shows that commercial oil stocks inJapan fell by 6.7 mb to stand around 11 mb below the seasonal norm. Preliminary indications showJapanese total commercial oil stocks declined a further 1 mb at the end of September.? Demand for OPEC crude in 2010 is estimated at 28.6 mb/d, around 0.1 mb/d lower than in theprevious report. This represents a decline of 0.3 mb/d from the demand for OPEC crude in 2009. In2011, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 28.8 mb/d, unchanged from the previousassessment and an increase of around 0.2 mb/d over the previous year.