原油價格變動

石油輸出國組織（OPEC）5月份參考原油價格下跌4.2%，至平均49.20美元/桶。原油期貨價格下跌，原因是供應(yīng)繼續(xù)充足，美國今年的產(chǎn)量繼續(xù)保持上升趨勢，盡管OPEC和非OPEC進行了產(chǎn)量調(diào)整。ICE布倫特原油期貨價格下跌4.5%，至51.40美元/桶，紐約商品交易所WTI原油期貨價格下跌5%，至48.54美元/桶。布倫特原油期貨價格價差擴大至2.86美元/桶，進一步支持美國出口。貨幣管理公司減少了對兩個交易所油價上漲的押注，將期貨和期權(quán)的凈持倉總量削減至2016年11月的水平。

世界經(jīng)濟

自年初以來，全球經(jīng)濟增長勢頭強于預(yù)期，繼2016年增長3.1%后，2017年全球經(jīng)濟增長預(yù)測已修正至3.4%。除了美國和印度可能出現(xiàn)的暫時性下跌外，全球經(jīng)濟最近的增長勢頭已經(jīng)得到證實。美國2017年的增長率仍為2.2%，歐元區(qū)為1.7%，而日本的增長預(yù)測被修正為1.4%。2017年，中國和印度的預(yù)測分別保持在6.5%和7.0%不變。同樣，對俄羅斯和巴西的預(yù)測也與之前的報告保持一致，分別為1.2%和0.5%。

世界石油需求

2016年世界石油需求預(yù)計將增長144萬桶/日，與上一份報告一致，平均為9512萬桶/日。2017年預(yù)計石油需求增長也保持不變，為127萬桶/日，平均為9638萬桶/日。根據(jù)上一份報告，經(jīng)合組織的消費量預(yù)計在2017年增長23萬桶/日，隨后經(jīng)合組織美洲和亞洲進行了抵消性修訂太平洋。中國和印度的石油需求增長預(yù)測也保持不變，分別為34萬桶/日和12萬桶/日。

世界石油供應(yīng)

據(jù)估計，2016年，非歐佩克國家的石油供應(yīng)量平均為5730萬桶/日，收縮了71萬桶/日，與上一份報告持平。2017年，非歐佩克國家的石油供應(yīng)量預(yù)計將增長84萬桶/日，此前歐佩克和非歐佩克國家決定將產(chǎn)量調(diào)整延長9個月，抵消了加拿大和英國的增長，俄羅斯、文萊、蘇丹斯和哈薩克斯坦的產(chǎn)量下降11萬桶/日，達到平均5814萬桶/日。由于2017年第一季度產(chǎn)量低于預(yù)期，美國2017年石油供應(yīng)增長也下調(diào)了30 tb/d。據(jù)二級消息來源預(yù)測，2017年歐佩克天然氣產(chǎn)量和非常規(guī)液體產(chǎn)量將增長17萬桶/日，達到平均622萬桶/日。2017年5月，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量增長336 tb/d，達到平均3214萬桶/日。

產(chǎn)品市場和煉油業(yè)務(wù)

大西洋盆地的煉油廠利潤率在5月份有所下降，盡管美國的汽油缺口擴大，國內(nèi)需求增加。這是由于石油桶中間的疲軟，因為相對較高的油田和煉油廠利用率的增加超過了汽油需求的改善。與此同時，在亞洲，由于供應(yīng)壓力的影響，在維修旺季過后，利潤率有所下降，而對該地區(qū)的影響越來越大。

油輪市場

5月份油輪市場人氣減弱，臟艙和清潔艙的現(xiàn)貨運價較上月大幅下降。運價下降的原因是輕噸位需求和高船舶可用性。阿芙拉型油輪的運價是個例外，由于幾個目的地的高噸位需求，加上港口延誤和更換，平均現(xiàn)貨運價有所提高。清潔油輪運價平均下降，主要是由于蘇伊士以西市場疲軟。

股票變動

經(jīng)合組織（OECD）4月份商業(yè)石油庫存總量下降至30.05億桶。在這個水平上，經(jīng)合組織的商業(yè)石油庫存比最近五年的平均水平高出25100萬桶。原油和成品油庫存分別高于季節(jié)性正常水平約171MB和80MB。就遠期覆蓋天數(shù)而言，經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)股為64.1天，比最近五年的平均水平高出約4.1天。

供需平衡

2016年，歐佩克原油需求量為3180萬桶/日，比2015年高出約200萬桶/日。2017年，歐佩克原油需求量預(yù)計為3200萬桶/日，比上年增加約30萬桶/日

Crude Oil Price Movements 

The OPEC Reference Basket fell 4.2% in May to average $49.20/b. Crude futures prices tumbled as supplycontinue to be plentiful with US output continuing its upward trend this year and despite OPEC andnon-OPEC production adjustments. ICE Brent ended 4.5% lower at $51.40/b, while NYMEX WTI dropped5% to $48.54/b. The Brent-WTI spread widened to $2.86/b, further supporting US exports. Money managersdecreased bets on higher oil prices in both exchanges, trimming combined net length positions in futures andoptions to November 2016 levels. 

World Economy 

After stronger-than-anticipated growth momentum since the beginning of the year, the forecast for globaleconomic growth has been revised up to 3.4% in 2017, following growth of 3.1% in 2016. The recent growthdynamic in the global economy has been confirmed with the exception of potentially temporary dips in theUS and India. US growth in 2017 remains at 2.2% and the Euro-zone at 1.7%, while Japan’s growth forecastwas revised up to 1.4%. The forecasts for China and India remain unchanged at 6.5% and 7.0%,respectively, in 2017. Similarly, the forecasts for Russia and Brazil also remain in line with the previousreport at 1.2% and 0.5%, respectively. 

World Oil Demand 

World oil demand in 2016 is expected to grow by 1.44 mb/d in line with the previous report to average95.12 mb/d. Projected oil demand growth for 2017 was also unchanged at 1.27 mb/d to average 96.38 mb/d.OECD consumption is seen growing by 0.23 mb/d in 2017, in line with the previous report, followingoffsetting revisions in OECD Americas and Asia Pacific. The forecast for oil demand growth in China andIndia have also been left unchanged at 0.34 mb/d and 0.12 mb/d, respectively. 

World Oil Supply 

Non-OPEC oil supply is estimated to have averaged 57.30 mb/d in 2016, a contraction of 0.71 mb/d andunchanged from the previous report. In 2017, non-OPEC oil supply is projected to grow by 0.84 mb/d,following a downward revision of 0.11 mb/d to average 58.14 mb/d. Lower output from Russia, as well asBrunei, the Sudans and Kazakhstan following the OPEC and non-OPEC decision to extend productionadjustments for nine months offset higher growth in Canada and the UK. US oil supply growth for 2017 wasalso revised down by 30 tb/d due to lower output than expected in 1Q17. OPEC NGLs production andnon-conventional liquids forecast to grow by 0.17 mb/d in 2017 to average 6.22 mb/d. In May 2017,OPEC crude oil production increased by 336 tb/d to average 32.14 mb/d, according to secondary sources. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

Refinery margins in the Atlantic Basin fell in May, despite the strength seen in US gasoline crack spreadsamid higher domestic demand. This was due to weakness in the middle of the barrel as relatively higheryields and increased refinery utilisation outweighed the improvement in gasoil demand. Meanwhile in Asia,margins weakened on supply pressure following the peak of the maintenance season amid increasinginflows to the region. 

Tanker Market 

Tanker market sentiment weakened in May as spot freight rates in both dirty and clean segments mostlydropped from the previous month. The decline in freight rates was driven by light tonnage demand and highvessels availability. Aframax rates were the exception, with average spot freight rates improving due to hightonnage demand for several destinations combined with port delays and replacements. Clean tanker freightrates declined on average, mainly due to a weak market West of Suez. 

Stock Movements 

Total OECD commercial oil stocks fell in April to stand at 3,005 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oilstocks were 251 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products stocks stood at a surplus abovethe seasonal norm of around 171 mb and 80 mb, respectively. In terms of days of forward cover,OECD commercial stocks stood at 64.1 days, some 4.1 days higher than the latest five-year average. 

Balance of Supply and Demand 

Demand for OPEC crude stood at 31.8 mb/d in 2016, some 2.0 mb/d higher than in 2015. In 2017, thedemand for OPEC crude is projected at 32.0 mb/d, around 0.3 mb/d higher than the previous year