原油價(jià)格變動(dòng)4月份，歐佩克基準(zhǔn)一攬子原油價(jià)格上漲2.0%，至平均51.34美元/桶。原油期貨價(jià)格在歐佩克和非歐佩克自愿調(diào)整產(chǎn)量和延長(zhǎng)至年底的預(yù)期高度一致的情況下回升；然而，石油產(chǎn)量回升，特別是美國的石油產(chǎn)量回升，限制了上漲潛力。ICE布倫特原油期貨價(jià)格上漲2.4%，至53.82美元/桶，NYMEX WTI上漲2.9%，至51.12美元/桶。布倫特WTI價(jià)差小幅收窄，至2.70美元/桶，但仍為美國原油出口打開套利通道。Moneymanager的凈多頭頭寸從3月底到4月中旬上升了30%，但在4月最后一周下降了創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的最大周跌幅之一。世界經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)2017年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)測(cè)仍為3.3%，與2016年3.0%的增長(zhǎng)率相比，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力已得到確認(rèn)，但美國除外，預(yù)計(jì)美國經(jīng)濟(jì)仍將在今年剩余時(shí)間內(nèi)反彈。雖然美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率仍保持在2.2%，但歐元區(qū)2017年的增長(zhǎng)率從1.6%修正為1.7%。日本2017年的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)仍為1.2%。中國2017年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率也從6.3%上調(diào)至6.5%，而印度的預(yù)測(cè)仍為7.0%。俄羅斯和巴西的2017年增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)保持不變，分別為1.2%和0.5%。2016年世界石油需求量經(jīng)修正后增加了65 tb/d，以反映最新數(shù)據(jù)。2016年世界石油需求總量增長(zhǎng)為144萬桶/日，平均為9512萬桶/日。2017年，預(yù)計(jì)石油需求總量增長(zhǎng)約為127萬桶/日，與上一份報(bào)告持平，預(yù)計(jì)石油需求總量為9638萬桶/日。非經(jīng)合組織將繼續(xù)以104萬桶/日的速度增長(zhǎng)，而經(jīng)合組織繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，盡管世界石油需求增速下降至23萬桶/日2016年歐佩克石油供應(yīng)量略有下降，原因是俄羅斯石油供應(yīng)量在2016年第4季度出現(xiàn)下降調(diào)整，目前顯示出收縮0.71百萬桶/天，平均為5730百萬桶/天。2017年的預(yù)測(cè)值經(jīng)調(diào)整后上升了0.37百萬桶/天，顯示出增長(zhǎng)0.95百萬桶/天，隨后所有季度（主要是美國）均向上調(diào)整，平均為5830百萬桶/天。修正的動(dòng)力來自2月份的實(shí)際生產(chǎn)數(shù)據(jù)，以及阿希格對(duì)今年剩余時(shí)間的預(yù)期。2007年，歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油產(chǎn)量平均為622萬桶/日，較上年同期增加了40噸/日，增幅為17萬桶/日。根據(jù)第二來源的數(shù)據(jù)，4月份，歐佩克的產(chǎn)量平均為3173萬桶/日，減少了18噸/日。4月份，大西洋盆地的產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)和煉油業(yè)務(wù)產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)在以下因素的支持下有所增強(qiáng)：在出口機(jī)會(huì)增加的情況下，國內(nèi)需求增加。資金流入減少和煉油廠的大量維修也導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)趨緊。主要的支撐來自汽油，美國國內(nèi)需求在4月份從第一季度的低迷中恢復(fù)過來，當(dāng)時(shí)正值夏季，對(duì)拉丁美洲的出口也有所增加，亞洲利潤率在該地區(qū)需求旺盛的情況下繼續(xù)保持健康。盡管超大型油輪市場(chǎng)強(qiáng)勁，但油輪市場(chǎng)平均油輪現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)比上個(gè)月下降了0.4%。由于市場(chǎng)活動(dòng)增強(qiáng)和噸位供應(yīng)趨緊，VLCC現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)有所改善，平均上漲20%。然而，受蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪運(yùn)價(jià)回落的推動(dòng)，平均臟現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)下降，截至本月底分別下降了8%和10%，這兩類油輪的巨大需求受到限制，而噸位供過于求占主導(dǎo)地位。3月份，經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)石油庫存下降至3013MB。在這一水平上，經(jīng)合組織的商業(yè)石油庫存比最近五年的平均水平高出2.76億桶。原油和成品油庫存分別比季節(jié)性正常水平高出約187MB和89MB。就遠(yuǎn)期覆蓋率而言，OEC商業(yè)庫存為64.8天，比最近五年的平均水平高出約4.8天。2016年歐佩克原油供需平衡為3180萬桶/日，比上一年高出200萬桶/日。2017年，歐佩克原油需求預(yù)計(jì)為3190萬桶/日，比去年增加約20萬桶/日。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket rose 2.0% in April to average $51.34/b. Crude oil futures recovered on the highconformity by OPEC and non-OPEC with voluntary production adjustments, and expectations for anextension to year-end; however, upward potential was seen as limited by a resurgence in oil output,particularly in the US. ICE Brent increased 2.4% to $53.82/b and NYMEX WTI rose 2.9% to $51.12/b. TheBrent-WTI spread narrowed slightly to $2.70/b, but still kept the arbitrage open for US crude exports. Moneymanager net long positions rose 30% from end of March until the middle of April, but dropped by the one oflargest weekly falls on record in the last week of April.World EconomyThe forecast for global economic growth remains at 3.3% in 2017, compared to growth in 2016 of 3.0%.Therecent growth dynamic in the global economy has been confirmed with the exception of the US, which is stillexpected to rebound in the remainder of the year. While US growth remains at 2.2%, Euro-zone growth in2017 was revised to 1.7% from 1.6%. Japan’s 2017 growth forecast remains at 1.2%. China’s 2017 growthwas also revised higher to 6.5% from 6.3%, while India’s forecast remains at 7.0%. Russia’s and Brazil’s2017 growth forecasts remain unchanged at 1.2% and 0.5%, respectively.World Oil DemandWorld oil demand in 2016 was revised higher by 65 tb/d to reflect the most recent data. Total world oildemand growth for 2016 stood at 1.44 mb/d to average 95.12 mb/d. For 2017, oil demand growth isanticipated to be around 1.27 mb/d unchanged from the previous report with total oil demand expected at96.38 mb/d. Non-OECD will continue to lead growth at 1.04 mb/d, while OECD continues to grow albeit at areduced pace of 0.23 mb/d.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC oil supply in 2016 was revised marginally lower due to a downward adjustment in Russian oilsupply in 4Q16 to now show a contraction of 0.71 mb/d to average 57.3 mb/d. The forecast for 2017 wasrevised up by 0.37 mb/d to show growth of 0.95 mb/d, following upward adjustments in all quarters, mostly inthe US, to average 58.3 mb/d. The revisions were driven by actual production data for February, as well ashigher expectations for the remainder of the year. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oil production in 2017was revised up by 40 tb/d to average 6.22 mb/d, representing growth of 0.17 mb/d. In April,OPEC production decreased by 18 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 31.73 mb/d.Product Markets and Refining OperationsProduct markets strengthened in April in the Atlantic basin, supported by stronger domestic demand amidhigher export opportunities. Lower inflows and heavy refinery maintenance also resulted in a tighter market.The main support came from the gasoline, with US domestic demand recovering in April from the slumpsuffered during the first quarter amid the shift to summer grades and higher exports to Latin America.Meanwhile, Asia margins continued healthy on the back of firm regional demand at a time of peakmaintenance in the region.Tanker MarketAverage tanker spot freight rates fell 0.4% from the month before, despite a stronger VLCC market. VLCCspot freight rates improved, rising by 20% on average, as a result of enhanced activity in the market and atightening in tonnage supply. Nevertheless, the decline in average dirty spot freight rates was driven by thedrop in Suezmax and Aframax freight rates, which ended the month down 8% and 10%, respectively, astonnage demand for both classes was limited, while tonnage oversupply was dominant.Stock MovementsTotal OECD commercial oil stocks fell in March to stand at 3,013 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oilstocks are 276 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products stocks indicated a surplus ofaround 187 mb and 89 mb above the seasonal norm, respectively. In terms of forward cover, OECDcommercial stocks stood at 64.8 days, some 4.8 days higher than the latest five-year average.Balance of Supply and DemandDemand for OPEC crude in 2016 now stands at 31.8 mb/d, which is 2.0 mb/d higher than in the previousyear. In 2017, demand for OPEC crude is projected at 31.9 mb/d, around 0.2 mb/d higher than last year.