原油價(jià)格變動(dòng)10月份，歐佩克參考價(jià)格籃子平均為55.50美元/桶，比上個(gè)月上漲2.06美元，創(chuàng)下兩年半以來(lái)的最高值，今年迄今平均為50.68美元/桶。原油期貨價(jià)格也達(dá)到2015年年中以來(lái)的最高水平。ICE布倫特原油價(jià)格上漲2.13美元，至57.65美元/桶，而LENYMEX WTI原油價(jià)格上漲1.72美元，達(dá)到51.59美元/桶，布倫特WTI原油價(jià)格保持在6美元/桶以上。全球需求數(shù)據(jù)不斷上升，預(yù)計(jì)主要產(chǎn)油國(guó)將擴(kuò)大adeal原油產(chǎn)量，以調(diào)整產(chǎn)量，并使石油市場(chǎng)達(dá)到平衡，支撐了油價(jià)。對(duì)沖基金分別以29456份和21592份合約的價(jià)格，向inNYMEX WTI和ICE布倫特期貨和期權(quán)公司募集了凈多頭頭寸，達(dá)到281244份和530237份。布倫特原油和迪拜原油仍處于滯銷(xiāo)狀態(tài)，而西德州原油期貨價(jià)格則有所回落。亞洲和歐洲的糖醋差價(jià)有所收窄，但美國(guó)海灣沿岸的糖醋差價(jià)有所擴(kuò)大。世界經(jīng)濟(jì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭繼續(xù)保持，2017年的預(yù)測(cè)從上月報(bào)告的3.6%上調(diào)至3.7%。同樣，2018年的預(yù)測(cè)也被調(diào)高至3.7%，而上個(gè)月為3.5%。尤其是經(jīng)合組織（OECD）2017年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)比迄今預(yù)期的要好。經(jīng)合組織在2017年和2018年分別上升了2.3%和2.2%。美國(guó)、歐元區(qū)和日本的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展勢(shì)頭良好，并可能進(jìn)行稅收改革，中國(guó)和印度的強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)以及俄羅斯和巴西的形勢(shì)好轉(zhuǎn)，在短期內(nèi)支持了增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)。世界石油需求量預(yù)計(jì)在2017年第3季度向上調(diào)整74 tb/d后，世界石油需求量增長(zhǎng)將增加153萬(wàn)桶/日，以期中國(guó)在2017年第3季度的表現(xiàn)好于預(yù)期。2018年，世界石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將下降151萬(wàn)桶/日，比上一次評(píng)估高出約130萬(wàn)億桶/日。目前，世界石油供應(yīng)國(guó)歐佩克石油供應(yīng)量預(yù)計(jì)在2017年同比增長(zhǎng)65萬(wàn)桶/日，比上個(gè)月的報(bào)告下降了02萬(wàn)桶/日。2018年，非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)的增長(zhǎng)也被修正為下降0.07百萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到0.87百萬(wàn)桶/日。歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)液體預(yù)計(jì)在2017年增長(zhǎng)0.17百萬(wàn)桶/日后，2018年將增長(zhǎng)0.18百萬(wàn)桶/日。根據(jù)第二來(lái)源的數(shù)據(jù)，2017年10月，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量下降了151 tb/d，平均為3259 mb/d。由于美國(guó)駕駛季結(jié)束后汽油需求季節(jié)性下降，大西洋盆地的產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)和煉油業(yè)務(wù)產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)在10月有所減弱。盡管如此，在穩(wěn)定的產(chǎn)品需求和低庫(kù)存水平的背景下，美國(guó)煉油利潤(rùn)率仍顯示出一定的改善。在歐洲，強(qiáng)勁的中間需求抵消了頂部和底部的疲軟。亞洲成品油市場(chǎng)也小幅走弱，但在煉油廠開(kāi)始維修的支持下仍保持在健康水平。10月份，臟油油輪市場(chǎng)的油輪市場(chǎng)情緒普遍增強(qiáng)，因?yàn)椴煌?lèi)別的運(yùn)價(jià)顯示大多數(shù)主要貿(mào)易航線都有所改善。受季節(jié)性噸位需求改善以及港口和天氣延誤等因素影響，臟油輪現(xiàn)貨平均運(yùn)價(jià)較上月上漲16%。盡管10月份航運(yùn)市場(chǎng)取得了健康的增長(zhǎng)，但仍保持InsuralPlus，從而限制了現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)的進(jìn)一步上漲。與此同時(shí)，清潔油輪運(yùn)價(jià)經(jīng)歷了相對(duì)下降，盡管仍高于去年同期的水平。9月份，經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存總體下降，達(dá)到298500萬(wàn)桶。在這一水平上，經(jīng)合組織的商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存比最近五年的平均水平高出1.54億桶。原油和成品油庫(kù)存分別比季節(jié)性正常水平高出約129MB和25MB。就遠(yuǎn)期覆蓋天數(shù)而言，經(jīng)合組織9月份商業(yè)庫(kù)存為62.3天，比最近五年的平均水平高出約1.9天。根據(jù)當(dāng)前全球石油供需平衡，2017年歐佩克原油預(yù)計(jì)為3300萬(wàn)桶/日，比2016年高出約7100萬(wàn)桶/日。據(jù)估計(jì)，2018年歐佩克原油日產(chǎn)量為3340萬(wàn)桶，比2017年增加約46萬(wàn)桶。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket averaged $55.50/b in October, gaining $2.06 over the previous month andreaching the highest value in more than two-and-a-half years, with a year-to-date average of $50.68/b. Crudefutures also reached levels not seen since mid-2015. ICE Brent ended $2.13 higher at $57.65/b, whileNYMEX WTI increased $1.72, reaching $51.59/b, keeping the Brent-WTI spread above $6/b. Prices havebeen supported by rising global demand data and expectations that major producing nations will extend adeal to adjust output and bring the oil market to a balance. Hedge funds raised net long positions inNYMEX WTI and ICE Brent futures and options by 29,456 and 21,592 contracts, respectively, to281,244 and 530,237 lots. Brent and Dubai remained in backwardation, while the WTI contango eased.Sweet/sour differentials narrowed in Asia and Europe, but widened on the US Gulf Coast.World EconomyThe global economic growth dynamic has continued its momentum, with the forecast for 2017 revised up to3.7%, from 3.6% in last month’s report. Similarly, the 2018 forecast has been adjusted higher as well tostand at 3.7%, compared to 3.5% in the previous month. Particularly OECD economic growth in 2017 wasbetter than expected so far. The OECD is seen growing by upwardly revised 2.3% in 2017 and 2.2% in 2018.Good momentum – and a potential tax reform – in the US, the ongoing dynamic in the Euro-zone and tosome extent in Japan, solid growth in China and India and an improving situation in Russia and Brazil aresupporting the growth trend in the short-term.World Oil DemandWorld oil demand growth is expected to rise by 1.53 mb/d in 2017 after an upward adjustment of 74 tb/d toaccount for the better-than-expected performance of China in 3Q17. In 2018, world oil demand is foreseenreaching 1.51 mb/d, around 130 tb/d higher than in the previous assessment.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC oil supply is now projected to grow by 0.65 mb/d y-o-y in 2017, representing a downward revisionof 0.02 mb/d from last month’s report. For 2018, growth in non-OPEC oil supply has also been revised downby 0.07 mb/d to stand at 0.87 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are expected to grow by0.18 mb/d in 2018, following an increase of 0.17 mb/d in 2017. In October 2017, OPEC crude oil productiondecreased by 151 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 32.59 mb/d.Product Markets and Refining OperationsProduct markets in the Atlantic Basin weakened in October due to seasonally-lower gasoline demandfollowing the end of US driving season. Nonetheless, US refining margins have exhibited some improvementy-o-y on the back of firm product demand and amid low stock levels. In Europe, solid middle-of-the-barreldemand offset weakness at the top and bottom. Product markets in Asia also weakened slightly, butremained at healthy levels, supported by the onset of refinery maintenance.Tanker MarketSentiment in the dirty tanker market generally strengthened in October, as freight rates for different classesshowed improvements on most major trading routes. Average dirty tanker spot freight rates rose 16%compared to the previous month, on the back of improved seasonal tonnage demand, as well as port andweather delays, among other factors. Despite healthy gains in October, the shipping market remains insurplus, capping further increases in spot freight rates. Meanwhile, clean tanker freight rates experienced arelative decline, although remaining above the levels of the same month last year.Stock MovementsTotal OECD commercial oil stocks fell in September to stand at 2,985 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oilstocks are 154 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products stocks indicated a surplus ofaround 129 mb and 25 mb, respectively, above the seasonal norm. In terms of days of forward cover,OECD commercial stocks stood at 62.3 days in September, some 1.9 days higher than the latest five-yearaverage.Balance of Supply and DemandBased on the current global oil supply/demand balance, OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 33.0 mb/d,around 0.71 mb/d higher than in 2016. OPEC crude in 2018 is estimated at 33.4 mb/d, about 0.46 mb/dhigher than in 2017.