原油價(jià)格變動(dòng)8月份，歐佩克參考價(jià)格籃子連續(xù)第二個(gè)月上漲至平均49.60美元/桶，漲幅為2.67美元/桶或6%。截至目前，該籃子原油價(jià)格上漲30.9%，至49.73美元/桶。原油期貨價(jià)格也上漲，其中冰布倫特原油價(jià)格上漲5.5%，至51.87美元/桶，紐約商品交易所WTI原油價(jià)格上漲3.0%，至48.06美元/桶。截至目前，原油期貨價(jià)格上漲超過20%。美國(guó)商品期貨交易委員會(huì)（CFTC）表示，在8月29日的一周內(nèi)，基金經(jīng)理將WTI期貨和期權(quán)凈多頭頭寸減少105671份，至147303份。同一周，基金經(jīng)理們將布倫特原油期貨和期權(quán)合約凈值小幅減少了1296手，至416551手。世界經(jīng)濟(jì)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率已從3.4%上調(diào)至2017年的3.5%，而2018年的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)保持在3.4%不變。經(jīng)合組織今年的增長(zhǎng)情況好于預(yù)期，特別是歐元區(qū)和美國(guó)，目前預(yù)計(jì)2017年和2018年分別增長(zhǎng)2.2%和2.0%。印度預(yù)計(jì)在2017年和2018年分別增長(zhǎng)6.9%和7.5%。巴西和俄羅斯在2017年的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇率分別為0.5%和1.5%，2018年分別增長(zhǎng)1.5%和1.4%。預(yù)計(jì)中國(guó)2017年和2018年將分別增長(zhǎng)6.7%和6.3%。世界石油需求量在上調(diào)約50tb/d后，預(yù)計(jì)2017年世界石油需求量將增長(zhǎng)142萬(wàn)桶/d。這一調(diào)整主要反映了經(jīng)合組織（OECD）地區(qū)17年第2季度的好于預(yù)期的數(shù)據(jù)，特別是美國(guó)和歐洲以及中國(guó)。2018年，世界石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)135萬(wàn)桶/日，比上一份報(bào)告增加70噸/日。這反映了經(jīng)合組織（oecd）對(duì)歐洲和中國(guó)更高的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期。由于哈薩克斯坦和美國(guó)供應(yīng)量的調(diào)整，預(yù)計(jì)2017年歐佩克石油供應(yīng)量將增長(zhǎng)78萬(wàn)桶/日，與上月持平。2018年，非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)量預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)100萬(wàn)桶/日，此前俄羅斯和哈薩克斯坦的石油供應(yīng)量將下調(diào)，總計(jì)為10萬(wàn)桶/日。2018年，歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)液體產(chǎn)量平均為649萬(wàn)桶/日，增長(zhǎng)18萬(wàn)桶/日，與本年的增長(zhǎng)基本一致。根據(jù)第二來(lái)源的數(shù)據(jù)，8月份，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量下降了79tb/d，平均為3276mb/d。8月份大西洋盆地的產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)和煉油業(yè)務(wù)煉油利潤(rùn)率有所提高。在美國(guó)，由于預(yù)計(jì)颶風(fēng)哈維過后產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)將出現(xiàn)短缺，加之已經(jīng)堅(jiān)挺的國(guó)內(nèi)需求，支撐了產(chǎn)品裂縫蔓延，利潤(rùn)率上升。在歐洲和亞洲，產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)受到美國(guó)供應(yīng)商的支持，這鼓勵(lì)了更高的套利量，以及健康的季節(jié)性需求，這有助于提高煉油廠利潤(rùn)率。油輪市場(chǎng)8月份的平均現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)跟隨夏季月份的典型趨勢(shì)，大多數(shù)報(bào)告航線的運(yùn)價(jià)都有所下降。受船舶高可用性的影響，臟點(diǎn)運(yùn)費(fèi)下降，據(jù)報(bào)道，新交付的船舶增加了船隊(duì)，給本已供過于求的噸位市場(chǎng)帶來(lái)壓力。受蘇伊士以西登記的較低運(yùn)費(fèi)影響，清潔油輪運(yùn)費(fèi)平均下降，盡管受颶風(fēng)哈維影響，美國(guó)暫時(shí)加息，但經(jīng)濟(jì)合作與發(fā)展組織（OECD）7月份的商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存仍下跌至30.02億股。在這個(gè)水平上，經(jīng)合組織的商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存比最近五年的平均水平高出195百萬(wàn)桶。原油和產(chǎn)品庫(kù)存顯示，盈余分別約為12300萬(wàn)桶和7200萬(wàn)桶，高于季節(jié)性正常水平。就遠(yuǎn)期覆蓋天數(shù)而言，經(jīng)合組織7月份商業(yè)庫(kù)存為62.9天，比最近五年平均水平高出約2.7天。根據(jù)當(dāng)前全球石油供需平衡，2017年歐佩克原油預(yù)計(jì)為3270萬(wàn)桶/日，比2016年高出約50萬(wàn)桶/日。同樣，歐佩克2018年的原油估計(jì)為3280萬(wàn)桶/日，比2017年高出約120萬(wàn)桶/日。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket rose for the second-consecutive month in August to average $49.60/b,representing a gain of $2.67/b or 6%. Year-to-date, the Basket was 30.9% higher at $49.73/b. Crude futuresprices also saw gains with ICE Brent increasing 5.5% to $51.87/b and NYMEX WTI up 3.0% at $48.06/b.Year-to-date, crude futures prices were more than 20% higher. During the week of 29 August moneymanagers cut WTI futures and options net long positions by 105,671 contracts to 147,303 lots, the USCommodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said. Money managers slightly reduced Brent futures andoptions net length contracts by 1,296 to 416,551 lots during the same week.World EconomyWorld economic growth has been revised up for 2017 to 3.5% from 3.4%, while the growth forecast for 2018remains unchanged at 3.4%. OECD growth has performed better-than-anticipated in the current year –particularly the Euro-zone and to some extent in the US – and is now forecast to grow by 2.2% in 2017 and2.0% in 2018. India is expected to grow by 6.9% in 2017 and 7.5% in 2018. Brazil and Russia are bothforecast to expand their recovery to 0.5% and 1.5% in 2017, respectively, followed by growth of 1.5% and1.4% in 2018. China is expected to grow by 6.7% in 2017 and 6.3% in 2018.World Oil DemandWorld oil demand growth in 2017 is expected to rise by 1.42 mb/d after an upward revision of around 50 tb/d.The adjustment mainly reflects better-than-expected data from OECD region for the 2Q17, particularlyOECD Americans and Europe, as well as China. In 2018, world oil demand is anticipated to grow by1.35 mb/d, an increase of 70 tb/d from the previous report. This reflects higher growth expectations forOECD Europe and China.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by 0.78 mb/d in 2017, unchanged from the last month due tooffsetting revisions in Kazakhstan and US supply. In 2018, non-OPEC oil supply is forecast to grow by1.0 mb/d, following a downward revision to Russia and Kazakhstan, totalling 0.1 mb/d. OPEC NGLs andnon-conventional liquids production are seen averaging 6.49 mb/d in 2018, representing an increase of0.18 mb/d, broadly in line with growth in the current year. In August, OPEC crude oil production decreasedby 79 tb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 32.76 mb/d.Product Markets and Refining OperationsRefinery margins in the Atlantic Basin strengthened in August. In the US, margins rose amid expectations fora product supply shortfall in the wake of Hurricane Harvey, coupled with already firm domestic demand,which supported product crack spreads. In Europe and Asia, product markets were supported by supplyoutages in the US, which encouraged higher arbitrage volumes, as well as healthy seasonal demand, whichhelped lift refinery margins.Tanker MarketAverage spot freight rates in August followed the typical trend seen in the summer months, with a weakeningon most reported routes. Dirty spot freight rates fell, influenced by high vessel availability, as new deliverieswere reportedly added to the fleet, putting pressure on an already oversupplied tonnage market.Clean tanker rates declined on average, influenced by lower rates registered on the West of Suez, despite atemporary hike in rates in the US due to Hurricane Harvey.Stock MovementsTotal OECD commercial oil stocks fell in July to stand at 3,002 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oil stockswere 195 mb above the latest five-year average. Crude and products stocks indicate surpluses of around123 mb and 72 mb, respectively, above the seasonal norm. In terms of days of forward cover,OECD commercial stocks stood at 62.9 days in July, some 2.7 days higher than the latest five-year average.Balance of Supply and DemandBased on the current global oil supply/demand balance, OPEC crude in 2017 is estimated at 32.7 mb/d,around 0.5 mb/d higher than in 2016. Similarly, OPEC crude in 2018 is estimated at 32.8 mb/d, about0.2 mb/d higher than in 2017.