原油價(jià)格變動(dòng)9月份，由于需求疲軟和供應(yīng)充足繼續(xù)對(duì)石油市場(chǎng)構(gòu)成壓力，歐佩克參考籃子下跌4.77美元，至95.98美元/桶。紐約商品交易所（Nymex）的WTI指數(shù)在9月份下跌了3.04美元/桶，至93.03美元/桶，而ICE布倫特指數(shù)下跌了4.83美元，至98.57美元/桶。ICE布倫特原油的推測(cè)凈長(zhǎng)度比2014年6月的峰值下降了近85%。布倫特-WTI價(jià)差收窄至5.54美元/桶，為2013年7月以來(lái)的最低水平。2014年和2015年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期分別保持在3.2%和3.6%不變，此前對(duì)2011年購(gòu)買力平價(jià)進(jìn)行了重新計(jì)算。經(jīng)合組織（OECD）2014年和2015年分別增長(zhǎng)1.8%和2.1%，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)加速增長(zhǎng)，而歐元區(qū)和日本經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)依然乏力。2014年和明年，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率分別為7.4%和7.2%。印度今年和2015年的增長(zhǎng)率分別為5.5%和5.8%。2014年全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到105萬(wàn)桶/日左右，與上一份報(bào)告沒(méi)有變化。中國(guó)、巴西和沙特阿拉伯的積極表現(xiàn)支撐了今年的增長(zhǎng)，抵消了一些OECD地區(qū)低于預(yù)期的增長(zhǎng)。根據(jù)上個(gè)月的預(yù)測(cè)，2015年世界石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)119萬(wàn)桶/日。根據(jù)上一份報(bào)告，2014年歐佩克石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)168萬(wàn)桶/日。經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)主要來(lái)自美國(guó)、巴西和加拿大，而墨西哥、印度尼西亞和英國(guó)預(yù)計(jì)將出現(xiàn)下降。預(yù)計(jì)2015年非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)將增加124萬(wàn)桶/日。2015年，歐佩克天然氣產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)了20萬(wàn)桶/日，平均為603萬(wàn)桶/日。9月份，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量平均為3047萬(wàn)桶/日，與上月相比增長(zhǎng)了402噸/日。產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)和煉油業(yè)務(wù)由于幾次裝置停產(chǎn)而收緊的汽油市場(chǎng)支持了利差的擴(kuò)大。這部分抵消了利差中間餾分油需求減弱，使得大西洋盆地的利潤(rùn)率繼續(xù)上升。在亞洲，強(qiáng)勁的汽油和燃料油需求，加上原油價(jià)格下跌，使得該地區(qū)的利潤(rùn)率得以回升。油輪市場(chǎng)臟油現(xiàn)貨油輪市場(chǎng)在9月份繼續(xù)承壓。由于噸位需求仍然有限，而可用性繼續(xù)出現(xiàn)盈余，不同航段的油輪顯示出較低的運(yùn)費(fèi)。受蘇伊士以西市場(chǎng)活躍度的推動(dòng)，9月份清潔油輪運(yùn)價(jià)有所提高。8月份，商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存增加約900萬(wàn)桶，達(dá)到267900萬(wàn)桶。在這個(gè)水平上，庫(kù)存仍比五年平均水平低5700萬(wàn)桶。原油順差為120萬(wàn)桶，而成品油庫(kù)存仍低于5年平均水平6900萬(wàn)桶。就遠(yuǎn)期覆蓋天數(shù)而言，8月份經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)股較上月小幅上漲0.1天，至57.9天。2014年歐佩克原油供需平衡與上一次報(bào)告的2950萬(wàn)桶/日持平。2015年，歐佩克原油需求平均為2920萬(wàn)桶/日，與上一次預(yù)期一致。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket fell $4.77 to stand at $95.98/b in September, as sluggishdemand and ample supply continue to weight on the oil market. Nymex WTI slipped$3.04/b to $93.03/b in September, while ICE Brent dropped $4.83 to $98.57/b. Speculativenet length in ICE Brent was down almost 85% from the peak seen in June 2014. TheBrent-WTI spread narrowed to $5.54/b, the lowest since July 2013.World EconomyExpectations for world economic growth in 2014 and 2015 remain unchanged at 3.2% and3.6% respectively, following a re-basing on 2011 purchase power parity. The OECD isseen growing at 1.8% in 2014 and 2.1% in 2015, with the US experiencing a continuedacceleration, while growth in the Euro-zone and Japan remains sluggish. China’s figuresremain unchanged at 7.4% in 2014 and 7.2% next year. Growth in India is also unchangedat 5.5% this year and 5.8% in 2015.World Oil DemandGlobal oil demand growth in 2014 is anticipated to reach around 1.05 mb/d, unchangedfrom the previous report. Growth this year has been supported by positive performance ofChina, Brazil and Saudi Arabia, offsetting lower-than-expected growth in some OECDregions. In 2015, world oil demand is forecast to rise by 1.19 mb/d, in line with last month’sforecast.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC oil supply growth in 2014 is forecast at 1.68 mb/d, in line with the previousreport. Growth was seen coming mainly from the US, Brazil and Canada, while Mexico,Indonesia and the UK are expected to see a decline. Non-OPEC supply is expected toincrease by 1.24 mb/d in 2015. OPEC NGLs is seen growing by 0.2 mb/d in 2015 toaverage 6.03 mb/d. In September, OPEC crude production averaged 30.47 mb/daccording to secondary sources, an increase of 402 tb/d from the previous month.Product Markets and Refining OperationsA tightening gasoline market due to several unit outages lent support to crack spreads.This partially offset weaker middle distillates demand, allowing margins to continue theupward trend in the Atlantic Basin. In Asia, strong gasoline and fuel oil demand, along withfalling crude prices, allowed margins in the region to recover.Tanker MarketThe dirty spot tanker market continued to be under pressure in September. Tankers indifferent segments showed lower freight rates as tonnage demand remained limited, whileavailability continued to see a surplus. Clean tanker freight rates improved in Septemberdriven by high market activity west of Suez.Stock MovementsOECD commercial oil stocks rose by around 9.0 mb in August to stand at 2,679 mb. At thislevel, inventories were still 57.0 mb below the five-year average. Crude saw a surplus of12.0 mb, while product stocks remained 69 mb below the five-year average. In terms ofdays of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks edged 0.1 day higher in August over theprevious month to stand at 57.9 days.Balance of Supply and DemandDemand for OPEC crude in 2014 remains unchanged from the previous report at29.5 mb/d. In 2015, demand for OPEC crude is seen averaging 29.2 mb/d, in line withthe previous expectations.