10月份，歐佩克的參考籃子繼續(xù)下跌。隨著經濟放緩削弱了石油需求增長，金融危機主導了市場情緒。在全球經濟動蕩之際，美國救助計劃的不確定性預示著對經濟衰退迫在眉睫的擔憂。盡管世界各國央行都在采取措施保護金融體系，但股市仍出現(xiàn)了虧損，突顯出經濟情緒的惡化。這反映在股票市場表現(xiàn)出劇烈波動，主要是下跌。10月份，該籃子平均價格為69.16美元/桶，下跌27.69美元，跌幅近29%，創(chuàng)下有史以來最大月度跌幅，達到2007年8月的水平。11月繼續(xù)呈大幅下降趨勢，11月14日價格為49.09美元/桶。由于實體經濟狀況迅速惡化，2009年全球經濟預測下調0.4個百分點至2.9%。歐元區(qū)在2008年第三季度進入技術性衰退，這是自單一貨幣問世以來的首次。美國經濟在2008年第3季度收縮了0.3%，預計在本季度及以后可能出現(xiàn)負增長。美國失業(yè)率急劇上升至6.5%，僅在過去兩個月，就有超過一半的百萬人失業(yè)。全球各國央行紛紛調低利率，盡管貨幣市場有所緩和，但10月份股市信心蒸發(fā)，股價大幅下跌。對新興市場的副作用越來越強，大宗商品價格持續(xù)下跌，越來越多的國家受到影響?，F(xiàn)在人們的注意力轉向了財政刺激措施的必要性，以減少經濟衰退的深度和持續(xù)時間。華盛頓20國集團（G 20）峰會考慮了應對危機的協(xié)調措施，經向下修正后，美國2009年經濟增長率預計為0.3%，歐元區(qū)經濟增長率預計為0.2%，日本經濟增長率預計為負0.2%。發(fā)展中國家目前預計增長4.9%，而中國2009年的增長預期目前為8.8%。油價下跌可能在一定程度上有助于第四季度的石油需求，但預計不會克服經濟低迷的影響。據(jù)預測，第四季度石油需求同比僅增長40萬桶/日。除運輸燃料大幅下降外，石化行業(yè)的石油消費也在急劇下降。由于經合組織的石油需求下降，2008年世界石油需求修正為26萬桶/日，顯示出28萬桶/日的小幅增長。2009年，石油需求將主要增長在中東、亞洲和中國，估計為820 tb/日，占非經合組織預測的明年石油需求增長總量的74%。預計經合組織成員國的石油需求將出現(xiàn)下降，這可能會在2009年使世界石油需求總量下降50萬桶/日以上，相當于預期的20萬桶/日。非歐佩克國家的石油供應預計在2008年平均為4970萬桶/日，比上一年增加了20萬桶/天，比上個月的評估下降了92結核/天。修訂的主要貢獻者是美國和fsu國家。2009年，非歐佩克國家的石油平均供應量預計為5040萬桶/日，比去年增加了70萬桶/日，較上一次評估下降了220噸/日，原因是企業(yè)為應對金融危機削減了資本支出。根據(jù)第二來源的數(shù)據(jù)，10月份，歐佩克原油產量平均為3200萬桶/日，較上月下降了13萬桶/日。在美國海灣颶風造成的重大暫時性停產之后，煉油廠特別是美國煉油廠完成了煉油廠維護并恢復正常運營后，產品市場情緒發(fā)生了重大變化。再加上世界經濟增長進一步惡化導致的產品需求下降，對產品價格和煉油經濟造成了下行壓力。由于世界經濟前景令人失望，以及對各種桶組分的預測較低，未來幾個月內，成品油市場目前的看跌情緒可能會繼續(xù)，給原油和成品油價格帶來更大壓力。盡管大西洋盆地的寒冷天氣為原油價格提供了一定的支撐，但不足以改變看跌的市場情緒。10月份，歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應量平均為1209萬桶/日，比上個月增長2.4%，中東以外地區(qū)的歐佩克成員國增加了現(xiàn)貨供應量。歐佩克的出海量再次穩(wěn)定，平均為2300萬桶/日。上個月，美國原油進口量與9月份相比猛增159萬桶/日，美國原油進口量大幅增長15%。受整體經濟前景悲觀和股市大幅下跌的影響，10月份原油油輪現(xiàn)貨運價下跌12%。10月份產品運價也較低，大西洋航線降幅最大。美國商業(yè)石油庫存從9月份的低水平回升，此前在10月份因美元升值3900萬美元而減少4400萬美元。目前庫存略低于1000兆桶，為今年第二高水平。原油庫存增加1160萬桶，至3120萬桶，為去年4月以來的最高水平，而成品油庫存則增加2700萬桶。就需求而言，美國商業(yè)石油庫存對五年平均水平以外的所有主要組成部分都非常滿意。在歐盟15國加上挪威，石油總庫存又增加了170萬桶，接近11200萬桶，相當于五年平均水平。在日本，9月份商業(yè)石油庫存連續(xù)第三個月增加近800萬桶，接近2億桶，創(chuàng)下一年多來的最高水平。預計2008年歐佩克原油需求平均為3180萬桶/日，比上年減少430噸/日。2009年，對歐佩克原油的平均需求預計為3090萬桶/日，下降910噸/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket continued to fall in October. The financial crisis dominated market sentiment as theeconomic slowdown dented petroleum demand growth. Uncertainty about bailout plans in the US while the turmoilspread worldwide signaled fears of a looming recession. Losses on the equity market, despite a move by central banksaround the world to safeguard the financial system, highlighted the deteriorating economic sentiment. This was reflectedin the equity markets which exhibited sharp volatility, mostly on the downside. In October, the Basket averaged $69.16/bfor a drop of $27.69 or nearly 29%, the largest monthly drop ever recorded, to a level last seen in August 2007. The sharpdownward trend continued in November, with the price at $49.09/b on 14 November. The forecast for the global economy in 2009 has been revised down 0.4 pp to 2.9% due to the rapidly worseningconditions in the real economy. The Euro-zone entered into technical recession in 3Q08 for the first time since theintroduction of the single currency. The US economy contracted by 0.3% in 3Q08 and is expected to exhibit negativegrowth in the current quarter and possibly beyond. Unemployment in the US rose sharply to 6.5% with more than half amillion jobs shed in the last two months alone. Central banks across the globe have moved to lower interest rates.Although money markets have eased, confidence in equity markets in October evaporated and share prices fell sharply. Asspillover effects to emerging markets become stronger and commodity prices continue to fall, more countries are beingaffected. Attention is now turning to the need for fiscal stimulus measures to lessen the depth and reduce the duration ofthe economic turndown. Coordinated measures to address the crisis were considered in the Washington G-20 Summit.Following downward revisions, US growth in 2009 is now forecast at 0.3%, Euro-zone growth at 0.2% and Japanesegrowth is expected to turn negative at minus 0.2%. Developing Countries are now expected to grow at 4.9% while China’sgrowth forecast now stands at 8.8% in 2009. The fall in prices might help fourth-quarter oil demand to some degree but is not anticipated to overcome the affects of theeconomic downturn. Fourth-quarter oil demand is forecast to show growth of only 0.4 mb/d y-o-y. In addition to thestrong decline in transport fuel, oil consumption in the petrochemical industry is also falling sharply. Due to the drop in oildemand in the OECD, world oil demand in 2008 was revised down by 0.26 mb/d to show minor growth of 0.28 mb/d. In2009, oil demand will increase mainly in the Middle East, Asia, and China which is estimated at 820 tb/d or 74% of thetotal Non-OECD forecast oil demand growth next year. OECD countries are expected to experience a decline in oildemand which is likely to pull total world oil demand growth down by more than 0.5 mb/d in 2009, representing arevision of 0.2 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to average 49.7 mb/d in 2008, representing an increase of 0.2 mb/d over the previousyear and a downward revision of 92 tb/d from last month’s assessment. Main contributors to the revision are the USA andFSU countries. In 2009, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to average 50.4 mb/d, representing an increase of 0.7 mb/dversus the current year and a downward revision of 220 tb/d from the last assessment as companies have cut capitalexpenditures in response to the financial crisis. In October, OPEC crude production averaged 32.0 mb/d according tosecondary sources, representing a drop of 0.13 mb/d from the previous month. Upon completion of refinery maintenance and resumption of normal operation by refineries, particularly in the US, aftermajor temporarily shutdown at the hurricanes in the US Gulf, product market sentiment changed significantly. Thiscombined with falling product demand due to further deterioration in world economic growth has exerted downwardpressure on product prices and refining economics. Due to the disappointing outlook for world economy and lowerdemand projections for various barrel components, the current bearish sentiment of the product markets may continue inthe coming months, putting more pressure on both crude and product prices. While the cold weather in the Atlantic Basinmay provide some support for crude prices, it would not be enough to switch the bearish market sentiment. OPEC spot fixtures averaged 12.09 mb/d in October, 2.4% higher than in the previous month, supported by higher OPECfixtures outside the Middle East. OPEC sailings were once again steady, averaging 23.0 mb/d. Arrivals in the USincreased by a substantial 15% last month in line with the sharp 1.59 mb/d surge in US crude imports compared toSeptember. Spot freight rates for crude oil tankers declined by 12% in October impacted by the overall pessimisticeconomic outlook and the steep falling of the equity markets. Product freight rates were also lower in October with thetrans-Atlantic route showing the largest drop. US commercial oil inventories recovered from the low levels seen in September after having lost 44 mb on the back ofhurricanes to increase by 39 mb in October. Inventories now stand slightly below 1,000 mb, the second-highest level sofar this year. Crude oil stocks rose 11.6 mb to hit 312 mb, the highest level since last April, while product inventoriesjumped 27 mb. In terms of demand, US commercial oil inventories are very comfortable with all the main componentsabove the five-year average. In EU-15 plus Norway, total oil inventories increased a further 1.7 mb to approach 1,120 mb,which corresponds to the five-year average. In Japan, commercial oil stocks rose in September for the third consecutivemonth adding almost 8 mb to approach 200 mb, the highest level in more than a year. The demand for OPEC crude in 2008 is expected to average 31.8 mb/d, a decline of 430 tb/d from the previous year. In2009, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 30.9 mb/d, a drop of 910 tb/d.