歐元區(qū)2006年國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）連續(xù)第二個(gè)月增長預(yù)估，在公布強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)后進(jìn)行了修正。今年歐元區(qū)的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值預(yù)計(jì)將增長2.4%。相比之下，由于房地產(chǎn)業(yè)和一些制造業(yè)的疲軟，對美國的估計(jì)已降至3.3%。由于第三季度消費(fèi)者支出停滯明顯抑制了經(jīng)濟(jì)表現(xiàn)，日本的預(yù)期也下降了0.3%至2.5%。盡管由于投資支出減速，中國第三季度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率略有下降，降至10.4%，但出口繼續(xù)強(qiáng)勁增長，2006年的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）增長預(yù)期已提高至10.4%。對一些發(fā)展中國家，特別是拉丁美洲發(fā)展中國家的期望也有所提高?？偟膩碚f，這些修正將今年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的預(yù)期從5%提高到了5.1%。2007年的前景并不樂觀，預(yù)計(jì)所有區(qū)域的增長都會(huì)下降。在美國，隨著家庭重建儲(chǔ)蓄，住房部門的疲軟可能會(huì)影響消費(fèi)者支出。此外，如果勞動(dòng)力成本上升和生產(chǎn)率增長放緩，加上在閑置產(chǎn)能萎縮的環(huán)境下，通脹壓力上升，聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備可能需要維持一項(xiàng)限制性政策。美國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值預(yù)計(jì)明年僅增長2.6%。歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)增長將受到美國經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的影響；此外，國內(nèi)支出預(yù)計(jì)將面臨收緊貨幣和財(cái)政政策的阻力。預(yù)計(jì)歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率將降至1.6%。日本的表現(xiàn)可能會(huì)更好，達(dá)到1.9%，這是由于企業(yè)部門的業(yè)績有所改善。2007年，發(fā)展中國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率預(yù)計(jì)將下降，降至5.5%，中國也可能適度減速至9.2%。2007年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的預(yù)期增長率與上月持平，為4.4%。充足的全球供應(yīng)和較為平靜的地緣政治趨勢導(dǎo)致10月份油價(jià)大幅下跌。然而，由于西方國家大量涌入亞洲帶來了套利機(jī)會(huì)，對低含硫原油供應(yīng)的預(yù)期有助于將價(jià)差拉大。石油輸出國組織（OPEC）10月份參考價(jià)格下跌7.4%或4.37美元，收于54.97美元/桶，為今年以來的最低月平均水平。11月的前兩周，石油輸出國組織決定印度河減產(chǎn)后，油價(jià)穩(wěn)定下來。美國的下游問題以及尼日利亞和中東的上游問題都支撐了價(jià)格。11月14日，歐佩克的一攬子計(jì)劃為55.19美元/桶。過去幾周，煉油廠的維修計(jì)劃與產(chǎn)品庫存減少相結(jié)合，緩和了產(chǎn)品市場的悲觀情緒，但未能提高歐洲和亞洲的煉油廠利潤率。在大西洋盆地維護(hù)計(jì)劃完成后，由于冬季天氣條件和蒸餾油需求水平的不確定性，預(yù)計(jì)未來幾周內(nèi)，產(chǎn)品市場當(dāng)前的疲軟情緒不會(huì)發(fā)生明顯變化，產(chǎn)品也不會(huì)占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位。這種看跌觀點(diǎn)不僅彌漫在實(shí)體市場，也可能蔓延到期貨市場，這導(dǎo)致過去幾周，取暖油期貨的非商業(yè)參與者凈多頭頭寸下降。盡管有這種看跌的觀點(diǎn)，但大西洋盆地的一次非常長時(shí)間的寒流仍有可能支撐原油和產(chǎn)品價(jià)格。10月份，歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量增加了60萬桶/日，達(dá)到平均1280萬桶/日，這是歐佩克連續(xù)三個(gè)月下降后的首次增長，部分原因是非中東歐佩克成員國的產(chǎn)量增加。與一年前相比，歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量下降了180萬桶/日。中東/東部和西部航線的超大型油輪市場分別疲軟至平均WS85和ws77，主要原因是可用噸位充足。蘇伊士型油輪板塊保持強(qiáng)勁，西非/美國古爾弗魯特平均價(jià)格為156 WS156，與本月五年平均價(jià)格持平。清潔油輪運(yùn)價(jià)繼續(xù)下跌，而從新加坡向東移動(dòng)的清潔船舶的運(yùn)價(jià)跌幅最大，約為33%，平均為WS221。預(yù)計(jì)2006年世界石油需求平均為8430萬桶/日，比上一個(gè)月增長率基本不變，即增長100萬桶/日或1.2%。美國石油需求終于開始回升，與正常的第四季度上升周期保持一致。其他經(jīng)合組織國家也緊隨其后，10月份石油需求增長略有增長。假設(shè)冬季氣溫正常，這種增加的消費(fèi)預(yù)計(jì)將持續(xù)到年底。預(yù)計(jì)2006年下半年亞洲其他經(jīng)濟(jì)增長將更加強(qiáng)勁，預(yù)計(jì)這將加強(qiáng)石油需求增長。今年，中東石油消費(fèi)保持強(qiáng)勁勢頭，創(chuàng)下世界石油需求第二大增長紀(jì)錄。在中國，2006年下半年的石油需求超出了預(yù)期，導(dǎo)致石油需求上調(diào)4萬桶，2006年增長57萬桶/日。2007年世界石油需求預(yù)測略有增加，以反映中國石油需求的上升趨勢。因此，預(yù)計(jì)明年世界石油需求將以130萬桶/日或1.6%的溫和增長率增長。2006年，非歐佩克國家的石油平均供應(yīng)量預(yù)計(jì)為5120萬桶/日，比2005年增加0.94萬桶/日。9月份，非歐佩克國家的石油產(chǎn)量目前估計(jì)為5130萬桶/日，比初步數(shù)字下降了40萬桶/日。10月份的初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，非歐佩克原油供應(yīng)總量約為5170萬桶/日，同比變化為210萬桶/日。10月份，歐佩克原油平均產(chǎn)量為2940萬桶/日。2007年，非歐佩克國家的石油平均供應(yīng)量預(yù)計(jì)為5300萬桶/日，比2006年增加180萬桶/日，與上月基本持平。按季度計(jì)算，預(yù)計(jì)第一、第二、第三和第四季度分別為平均5240萬桶/日、5260萬桶/日、5290萬桶/日和5410萬桶/日。俄羅斯明年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)期（19萬桶/日）雖然有所下降，但結(jié)果可能仍然是樂觀的。10月，歐佩克原油平均產(chǎn)量為2940萬桶/日，較上月下降16萬桶/日。2006年，經(jīng)合組織原油凈進(jìn)口總量首次下降，至10月的平均2780萬桶/日，但仍保持了3%的同比增長。美國石油凈進(jìn)口量驟降至1180萬桶/日，此前由于庫存高企、需求疲軟和煉油利用率下降，美國石油凈進(jìn)口量下降95萬桶/日。日本石油凈進(jìn)口量下降8.4萬桶/日至420萬桶/日，抵消了9月份的增幅。受強(qiáng)勁需求推動(dòng)，9月份中國原油進(jìn)口量進(jìn)一步飆升50萬桶/日，創(chuàng)下近330萬桶/日的歷史新高，報(bào)告稱，中國儲(chǔ)備了戰(zhàn)略石油儲(chǔ)備，并啟動(dòng)了新的煉油廠，而產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口量則下降了約50，000桶/日至100萬桶/日。同樣，印度石油凈進(jìn)口量約為200萬桶/日。10月份，美國商業(yè)庫存總量與上月相比減少了2500萬桶，達(dá)到10637萬桶。這一損失完全是由于原油庫存上升導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)品庫存下降。盡管出現(xiàn)了虧損，但商業(yè)庫存總量與去年和五年平均水平相比仍保持在令人滿意的水平。在16歐元區(qū)（歐盟加挪威），商業(yè)石油庫存總量小幅下降720萬歐元，至113890萬歐元，目前比一年前下降1.4%，但仍比五年平均水平高6.8%。由于產(chǎn)品庫存和原油的增加，9月份日本商業(yè)原油庫存總量較上月增加750萬桶至19430萬桶。預(yù)計(jì)2006年歐佩克原油的平均需求量為2880萬桶/日。按季度計(jì)算，新的預(yù)測顯示，第三季度歐佩克原油的需求量預(yù)計(jì)為2840萬桶/日，第四季度為2890萬桶/日。2007年，預(yù)計(jì)歐佩克原油的平均需求量為2810萬桶/日，較2006年下降了70萬桶/日。按季度計(jì)算，第一季度歐佩克原油的需求量預(yù)計(jì)為2930萬桶/日，第二季度為2710萬桶/日，第三季度為2780萬桶/日，第四季度為2840萬桶/日。

For the second successive month estimates of Euro-zone GDP growth for 2006 have been revised up following reports ofstronger economic activity. This year the GDP of the Euro-zone is expected to grow by 2.4%. In contrast the estimate for theUSA has been reduced to 3.3% as a result of weakness in the housing sector and some manufacturing industries. The estimatefor Japan has also been reduced by 0.3% to 2.5% as stagnant consumer spending has clearly depressed economic performancein the third quarter. Although economic growth in China fell slightly in the third quarter to 10.4% as a result of a decelerationin investment spending, exports continue to expand very strongly and the estimate for GDP growth in 2006 has been raised to10.4%. Expectations for some Developing Countries, particularly in Latin America, have also improved. On balance theserevisions have raised the estimate for world economic growth this year to 5.1% from 5%. The prospects for 2007 are not so favourable and all regions are expected to see lower growth. In the United States, theweakness in the housing sector may affect consumer spending as households rebuild savings. Moreover the FederalReserve may need to maintain a restrictive policy if rising labour costs and slower productivity growth combine to putupward pressure on inflation in a climate of shrinking spare capacity. US GDP is forecast to grow by only 2.6% nextyear. European growth will suffer from any downturn in the USA; moreover domestic spending is expected to faceheadwinds from tighter monetary and fiscal policies. Growth is forecast to fall to 1.6% in the Euro-zone. Japan mayperform better at 1.9%, sustained by the improving performance of the corporate sector. Growth in DevelopingCountries is expected to be lower in 2007, falling to 5.5% and China may also see modest deceleration to 9.2%. Theforecast growth rate for the world economy in 2007 is unchanged from last month at 4.4%. Ample global supplies and calmer geopolitical trends caused oil prices to fall sharply in October. However, theprospects of lower sour crude supply helped price differentials to firm amid opening arbitrage opportunities for westerncrudes into Asia. The OPEC Reference Basket plunged by 7.4% or $4.37 to settle at $54.97/b for October, the lowestmonthly average so far this year. In the first two weeks of November, prices stablized following the OPEC decision inDoha to cut output. Downstream problems in the USA and upstream concerns in Nigeria and the Middle East alsosupported prices. The OPEC Basket stood at $55.19/b on 14 November. A combination of the refinery maintenance schedule with product stock-draws over the last few weeks has softened thebearish sentiment of the product markets but failed to lift refinery margins in Europe and Asia. Upon completion of themaintenance schedule in the Atlantic Basin and with uncertainty about winter weather conditions as well as distillate demandlevel, the current soft sentiment of the product markets is not expected to shift significantly over the next few weeks andproducts are not expected to take the driver’s seat. This bearish view not only pervades the physical market, but can also beseen in the futures market, which has resulted in lower net-long positions of non-commercial players in the heating oil futuresover the last few weeks. Despite this bearish view, there is still a chance that a very prolonged cold snap in the Atlantic Basinmight support crude and product prices. OPEC spot fixtures increased by 0.6 mb/d to average 12.8 mb/d in October, the first increase after three months of decline,partially due to an increase in production from non-Middle East OPEC members. Compared with a year earlier, OPEC spotfixtures fell by 1.8 mb/d. VLCC market weakened on the Middle East/East and Westbound routes to average WS85 andWS77 respectively, mainly due to ample tonnage availability. The Suezmax sector remained strong with West Africa/US Gulfroute averaging WS156, in line with the five-year average for the month. Clean tanker freight rates continued to fall, whilerates for clean vessels moving from Singapore to the East experienced the largest decline at around 33% to average WS221. World oil demand for 2006 is expected to average 84.3 mb/d, representing growth of 1.0 mb/d or 1.2%, broadly unchangedfrom the last MOMR. US oil demand has finally begun to pick up, tracking the normal fourth-quarter upward cycle. OtherOECD countries are following suit with a slight increase in oil demand growth in October. Assuming normal wintertemperatures, this increased consumption is expected to continue until the end of the year. Other Asia economic growth isexpected to be stronger for the rest of 2006, which is anticipated to strengthen oil demand growth. The Middle East ismaintains its strong momentum for oil consumption to record the second-largest growth in world oil demand this year. InChina, oil demand is exceeding expectations in the second half of 2006, resulting in an upward revision of 40,000 barrels toshow a growth of 0.57 mb/d for 2006. The world oil demand forecast for 2007 has been slightly increased to reflect theupward revision in China. As a result, world oil demand growth for next year is expected to grow at a moderate rate of1.3 mb/d or 1.6%. Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to average 51.2 mb/d in 2006, representing an increase of 0.94 mb/d over 2005.September non-OPEC output is now assessed at 51.3 mb/d, down 0.4 mb/d from preliminary figures. Preliminary data forthe month of October puts total non-OPEC supply at around 51.7 mb/d, representing a y-o-y change of 2.1 mb/d. OPECcrude production averaged 29.4 mb/d in October. In 2007, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to average 53 mb/d,representing an increase of 1.8 mb/d versus 2006 and broadly unchanged from last month. On a quarterly basis, it isexpected to average 52.4 mb/d, 52.6 mb/d, 52.9 mb/d, and 54.1 mb/d in the first, second, third and fourth quarters,respectively. The growth estimate for Russia next year (0.19 mb/d), although reduced, may still turn out to be optimistic. InOctober, OPEC crude production averaged 29.4 mb/d, representing a drop of 0.16 mb/d from the previous month.OECD total net oil imports declined for the first time in 2006 to average 27.8 mb/d in October but still managed todisplay y-o-y growth of 3%. US net oil imports plunged to 11.8 mb/d, after dropping 950,000 b/d as a result of highstocks, weaker demand and the lower refining utilization rate. Japan’s net oil imports fell 84,000 b/d to 4.2 mb/d,offsetting the increase displayed in September. China’s crude oil imports surged a further 500,000 b/d to hit an all-timehigh of nearly 3.3 mb/d in September, driven by strong demand, reported stockpiling of the SPR and the start-up of anew refinery while product imports retreated by around 50,000 b/d to 1.0 mb/d. Again India’s net oil imports remainedstable at around 2.0 mb/d. US total commercial inventories witnessed a 25 mb draw in October compared to the previous month to stand at1,063.7 mb. The loss was solely due to declines in product inventories as crude oil stocks rose. Despite the loss, totalcommercial inventories remain at comfortable levels against the year-ago level and the five-year average. In the Eur-16(EU plus Norway), total commercial oil stocks edged down by 7.2 mb to 1,138.9 mb and now stand 1.4% below a yearearlier but still 6.8% higher than the five-year average. Japanese total commercial crude oil stocks experienced a buildof 7.5 mb to 194.3 mb in September from the previous month, owing to an expansion in product inventories and crudeoil. The estimated demand for OPEC crude in 2006 is expected to average 28.8 mb/d. On a quarterly basis, the new estimateshows that demand for OPEC crude is expected at 28.4 mb/d in the third quarter and 28.9 mb/d in the fourth. In 2007,the forecast demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 28.1 mb/d, representing a decline of 0.7 mb/d versus 2006.On a quarterly basis, demand for OPEC crude is expected at 29.3 mb/d in the first, 27.1 mb/d in the second, 27.8 mb/din the third and 28.4 mb/d in the fourth quarter.