受市場(chǎng)看漲情緒推動(dòng)，8月份歐佩克參考籃子繼續(xù)上行，收于109.52美元/桶?；@子組件上漲8.00-1200美元。8月份，洲際交易所布倫特期貨價(jià)格也上漲了10%，收于112.68美元/桶，紐約商品交易所WTI期貨價(jià)格上漲了7%，收于94.16美元/桶。投機(jī)性活動(dòng)明顯增加，限制了近海供應(yīng)，美國(guó)原油庫存下降，主要央行希望進(jìn)一步放松貨幣政策，以及地緣政治因素所有這些都對(duì)原油價(jià)格上漲起到了推波助瀾的作用。美國(guó)出人意料的積極經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)也支撐了石油市場(chǎng)。由于颶風(fēng)艾薩克威脅到美國(guó)海灣地區(qū)的石油業(yè)務(wù)，與天氣有關(guān)的因素推高了油價(jià)。9月10日，歐佩克的一攬子計(jì)劃為112.32美元/桶。2012年和2013年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期分別保持在3.3%和3.2%不變。據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)，美國(guó)2012年和2013年將分別增長(zhǎng)2.3%和2.0%。日本預(yù)計(jì)將從今年的2.7%降至2013年的1.2%。歐元區(qū)在2012年收縮0.4%后，有望恢復(fù)0.1%的增長(zhǎng)。中國(guó)2012年和2013年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期分別為8.1%和8.0%，而印度2012年和2013年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期分別為6.3%和6.6%。2012年世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期為90萬桶/日，與上一份報(bào)告持平。全球經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)蕩并沒有減緩石油消費(fèi)季節(jié)性從夏季的趨勢(shì)。世界石油需求在年上升7月，第三季度同比增長(zhǎng)110萬桶/日。7月，非OEC石油消費(fèi)量為4290萬桶/日，同比增長(zhǎng)100萬桶/日。2013年，世界石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將以略低于上一年的80萬桶/日的速度增長(zhǎng)。下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)存在，因?yàn)榘l(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩可能會(huì)逐漸蔓延到非OECD。預(yù)計(jì)2012的非歐佩克供應(yīng)量將增加0.7 Mb/d。美國(guó)、加拿大、巴西、俄羅斯、中國(guó)和哥倫比亞的預(yù)期增長(zhǎng)支撐了增長(zhǎng)，而南蘇丹和蘇丹、敘利亞、英國(guó)和挪威的產(chǎn)出預(yù)計(jì)將下降。2013年，非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)90萬桶/日。預(yù)計(jì)2012年歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油的平均供應(yīng)量為570萬桶/日，2013年為590萬桶/日，分別增長(zhǎng)40萬桶/日和20萬桶/日。二級(jí)消息來源顯示，8月份，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量為3141萬桶/日，較上月增加254噸/日，8月份全球成品油市場(chǎng)人氣保持健康，并進(jìn)一步走強(qiáng)，由于全球多家煉油廠停產(chǎn)、大西洋盆地汽油需求復(fù)蘇以及亞洲石化行業(yè)石腦油消費(fèi)，下游供應(yīng)趨緊，輕質(zhì)餾分油表現(xiàn)出積極的表現(xiàn)。盡管燃料油需求疲軟，輕質(zhì)餾分油的積極表現(xiàn)仍使利潤(rùn)率繼續(xù)上升。在油輪市場(chǎng)，一個(gè)普遍的負(fù)面趨勢(shì)正在影響臟油輪，因?yàn)檩^低的噸位需求和充足的船舶供應(yīng)將現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)推低。超大型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪市場(chǎng)活動(dòng)緩慢，而蘇伊士型油輪8月份的運(yùn)價(jià)達(dá)到了今年的最低水平。清潔油輪現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)西部上升，東部下降。8月份，歐佩克維爾港的船運(yùn)量幾乎穩(wěn)定在平均每天2400萬人次，北美、歐洲和西亞的船運(yùn)量有所增加，而遠(yuǎn)東的船運(yùn)量則有所下降。全球和歐佩克現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量分別較上月減少340萬桶/日和100萬桶/日。美國(guó)8月份商業(yè)石油庫存連續(xù)第二個(gè)月下降，減少了1330萬桶。這一下降僅歸因于原油庫存下降了1650萬桶，而產(chǎn)品庫存上升了290萬桶。盡管下跌，美國(guó)商業(yè)股仍比五年平均水平高出1720萬股。日本最新的月度數(shù)據(jù)顯示，7月份商業(yè)石油庫存連續(xù)第五個(gè)月減少了90萬桶，主要原因是產(chǎn)品增加了300萬桶。原油庫存限制了石油的生產(chǎn)，減少了220萬桶。日本的商業(yè)庫存仍比五年平均水平低280萬桶。2012年對(duì)歐佩克原油的需求與之前的評(píng)估基本持平，為2990萬桶/日。這意味著比上一年下降了20萬桶/日。2013年對(duì)歐佩克原油的需求預(yù)計(jì)平均為2950萬桶/日，與上一份報(bào)告相比也沒有變化，比2012年的水平低40萬桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket continued its upward movement in August to settle at $109.52/b,pushed higher by the market’s bullish sentiment. Basket components rose by $8.00-1200. ICE Brentfront-month prices also increased in August by 10% to settle at $112.68/b, while Nymex WTI rose by7% to stand at $94.16/b. The return of significantly higher speculative activity, constraints inNorth Sea supply, declines in crude oil stockpiles in the US, hopes for further monetary easing frommajor central banks, and geopolitical factors have all contributed to the increase in crude oil prices.Oil markets were also supported by unexpected positive economic data from the US. Weatherrelatedfactors pushed prices higher, as Hurricane Isaac threatened oil operations in the US Gulf. On10 September, the OPEC Basket stood at $112.32/b.Growth expectations for the world economy in 2012 and 2013 remain unchanged at 3.3% and3.2%, respectively. The US is forecast to grow by 2.3% in 2012 and 2.0% in 2013. Japan isexpected to decelerate from 2.7% this year to 1.2% in 2013. The Euro-zone is seen returning togrowth of 0.1%, following a contraction of 0.4% in 2012. Growth expectations for China stand at8.1% for 2012 and 8.0% in 2013, while India’s expansion is forecast at 6.3% in 2012 and 6.6% in2013.World oil demand growth in 2012 is forecast at 0.9 mb/d, unchanged from the previous report.Global economic turbulence has not slowed oil consumption seasonality from its summer trend.World oil demand rose in July, leading to growth of 1.1 mb/d in the third quarter y-o-y. Non-OECDconsumed 42.9 mb/d of oil in July, an increase of 1.0 mb/d y-o-y. In 2013, world oil demand isforecast to grow at a slightly lower 0.8 mb/d compared to the previous year. Downside risk exists asthe economic slowdown in the developed countries could increasingly spill over into the non-OECD.Non-OPEC supply is anticipated to increase by 0.7 mb/d in 2012. Growth is supported by expectedgains in the US, Canada, Brazil, Russia, China, and Colombia, while output from South Sudan andSudan, Syria, the UK and Norway is projected to decline. In 2013, non-OPEC oil supply is forecastto grow by 0.9 mb/d. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are expected to average 5.7 mb/d in2012 and 5.9 mb/d in 2013, representing growth of 0.4 mb/d and 0.2 mb/d, respectively. In August,OPEC crude oil production stood at 31.41 mb/d, representing an increase of 254 tb/d from theprevious month, according to secondary sources.Product market sentiment remained healthy and became stronger worldwide in August, with lightdistillates exhibiting a positive performance on the back of tightening downstream supply generatedby the shutdown of several refineries worldwide and the recovery in gasoline demand in the AtlanticBasin, as well as naphtha consumption in the petrochemical sector in Asia. The positiveperformance of light distillates allowed margins to continue increasing, despite weaker fuel oildemand. In the tanker market, a general negative trend was affecting dirty tankers, as lower tonnagedemand and ample vessel supply drove spot freight rates to lower levels. The VLCC and Aframaxmarkets saw slow activities, while Suezmax freight rates in August reached the lowest level thisyear. Clean tanker spot freight rates rose in the west and declined in the east. Sailings from OPECwere almost steady in August to average 24 mb/d. Arrivals in North America, Europe and West Asiaincreased, while in the Far East arrivals declined. Both global and OPEC spot fixtures decreased inAugust from the previous month by 3.4 mb/d and 1.0 mb/d, respectively.US commercial oil inventories fell for the second consecutive month in August, declining by13.3 mb. This drop was attributed solely to crude stocks, which fell by 16.5 mb, while productinventories rose by 2.9 mb. Despite the drop, US commercial stocks remained 17.2 mb above thefive-year average. The most recent monthly data for Japan shows that commercial oil inventoriesrose by 0.9 mb in July for the fifth consecutive month, driven by an increase in products of 3.0 mb.Crude stocks limited the build, dropping by 2.2 mb. Japan’s commercial inventories remain 2.8 mbbelow the five-year average.Demand for OPEC crude for 2012 has remained virtually unchanged from the previousassessment to stand at 29.9 mb/d. This represents a decline of 0.2 mb/d from the previous year.Demand for OPEC crude in 2013 is projected to average 29.5 mb/d, also unchanged from theprevious report and 0.4 mb/d lower than the 2012 level.