石油市場亮點

今年6月，歐佩克一籃子參考原油價格連續(xù)第三個月下跌，18個月來首次收于每桶100美元，至93.98美元，跌幅非常顯著，達到13%，創(chuàng)下2008年12月22%的跌幅以來的最高月環(huán)比跌幅。ICE布倫特和Nymex WTI也均跌至數(shù)月低點，跌幅均超過13%。紐約商品交易所（Nymex）WTI front Month6月份下跌12.31美元，在第二季度累計大幅下跌23.80美元。布倫特原油期貨價格前一個月跌幅較大，6月份下跌14.36美元，第二季度下跌28.62美元。除了對經(jīng)濟的擔憂，特別是對歐元區(qū)的擔憂，推動價格下跌的主要因素是投機性多頭頭寸的減少和豐富的原油供應。

2012年世界經(jīng)濟增長預期保持在3.3%不變，2013年僅略低于3.2%。美國對2012年的預測下調(diào)至2.1%，對2013年的預測為2.0%。日本的擴張有所改善，2012年的增長率從2.0%上調(diào)至2.5%。2013年，歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟增長率將回到歷史平均水平1.2%的水平。歐元區(qū)正在采取的措施預計將使今年0.4%的經(jīng)濟收縮在2013年變成0.1%的經(jīng)濟擴張。在持續(xù)的刺激努力下，中國2012年的經(jīng)濟增長率為8.1%，預計2013年為8.0%。預計2013年印度的經(jīng)濟增長率也將從2012年的6.4%提高到6.6%。

各種抵消性的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展使得2012年世界石油需求預測為90萬桶/日，與上一份報告持平。經(jīng)合組織（OECD）低迷的經(jīng)濟正在抑制該地區(qū)的石油需求，但日本除外，該國大部分核電站的關(guān)閉導致原油和燃料油燃燒增加。據(jù)預測，2013年世界石油需求增長率為80萬桶/日，這意味著增長速度較今年有所放緩。全球經(jīng)濟復蘇的不穩(wěn)定步伐正在給世界石油需求帶來相當大的不確定性。非經(jīng)合組織預計明年將繼續(xù)為全球石油需求增長做出貢獻。預計工業(yè)和運輸部門對石油總需求的貢獻最大。

預計2012年非歐佩克石油供應將增加70萬桶/日，北美、拉丁美洲和FSU的預期增長為支撐。2013，非歐佩克石油供應量預計將增長0.9Mb/d。預計美國、加拿大、巴西、哈薩克斯坦和哥倫比亞有望成為供應增長的主要貢獻者，而挪威、墨西哥和英國則經(jīng)歷了最大的衰退。2013年，歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油的平均日產(chǎn)量為590萬桶，比今年增加了20萬桶。根據(jù)第二來源的數(shù)據(jù)，6月份，歐佩克的產(chǎn)量估計為3136萬桶/日，比上個月下降106桶/日。

6月份，大西洋盆地的產(chǎn)品市場情緒轉(zhuǎn)為看漲，汽油供應緊張的預期增強，同時對駕駛季節(jié)提出了額外要求。這與原油價格的下跌一起，導致大西洋盆地的利潤率上升。在亞洲，由于石化部門對石腦油的需求令人失望，以及該地區(qū)供應的增加，馬金斯繼續(xù)受到油價高位下跌的拖累。

6月份油輪市場普遍走低。超大型油輪和蘇伊士型油輪的臟船運費由于活動疲軟和噸位需求下降而下降，而阿芙拉型油輪的現(xiàn)貨運費則略有上升。與上月相比，清潔現(xiàn)貨運價有所下降。6月份，歐佩克的出港量和到港量下降，而歐佩克的全球貨運量上升了7.7%。

美國商業(yè)石油庫存6月份進一步上漲，增加1080萬桶，為2011年以來的最高水平。庫存較上年同期增加1700萬桶，較五年平均水平增加3150萬桶，主要是產(chǎn)品增加1250萬桶，原油減少170萬桶。印度石油公司5月份最新月度數(shù)據(jù)顯示，商業(yè)石油庫存進一步增加640萬桶，為一年來最高水平。赤字較上年同期的4.6%下降了0.7%，而五年平均赤字轉(zhuǎn)為0.4%的盈余。庫存在原油和產(chǎn)品之間分配，分別增加了400萬桶和210萬桶。

2012年對歐佩克原油的需求與此前估計的2990萬桶/日幾乎持平，顯示出與上一年相比下降了10萬桶/日。根據(jù)2013年世界石油需求和非歐佩克供應（包括歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油）的初步預測，預計明年歐佩克原油需求將下降30萬桶/日，平均為2960萬桶/日。

Oil Market Highlights 

The OPEC Reference Basket in June continued its decline for the third consecutive month to settlebelow $100/b for the first time in 18 months at $93.98/b. The decline was very significant at 13%, thehighest month-to-month drop since the 22% fall set back in December 2008. Both ICE Brent andNymex WTI also fell to multi-months lows, shedding over 13% each. The Nymex WTI front-monthdeclined by $12.31 in June to accumulate a hefty decline of $23.80 over the second quarter. TheICE Brent front-month losses were larger, down $14.36 in June and $28.62 over the second quarter.In addition to economic concerns, especially regarding the Euro-zone, the main factors driving downprices were the decline in speculative long positions and abundant crude oil supplies. 

World economic growth expectations for 2012 remain unchanged at 3.3% and stand only slightlylower at 3.2% for 2013. The US forecast for 2012 has been revised down to stand at 2.1% and isforecast at 2.0% for 2013. Japan’s expansion improved and 2012 growth has been revised up to2.5% from 2.0%. In 2013, the growth rate will move back in line with historical averages at 1.2%.Measures being undertaken in the Euro-zone are expected to turn the contraction of 0.4% this yearback into a 0.1% expansion in 2013. With continued stimulus efforts, China’s growth for 2012remains at 8.1% and is forecast at 8.0% in 2013. India’s expansion also is forecast to improve in2013 to 6.6% from a growth level of 6.4% in 2012. 

Various offsetting economic developments have left the 2012 world oil demand forecast at0.9 mb/d, unchanged from the previous report. The sluggish OECD economy is suppressing theregion’s oil demand, except for in Japan where the shut-down of most of the country’s nuclear powerplants has led to increased crude and fuel oil burning. World oil demand growth in 2013 is forecast at0.8 mb/d, representing a slowdown in growth from the current year. The unsteady pace of the globaleconomic recovery is causing a considerable uncertainty for world oil demand. The non-OECD isexpected to continue to contribute all of the world’s oil demand growth for next year. The industrialand transport sectors are expected to contribute the most to total oil demand.

 Non-OPEC supply is forecast to increase by 0.7 mb/d in 2012, supported by the anticipated growthfrom North America, Latin America, and FSU. In 2013, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by0.9 mb/d. The US, Canada, Brazil, Kazakhstan, and Colombia are expected to be the maincontributors to supply growth, while Norway, Mexico, and the UK are seen experiencing the largestdeclines. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are seen averaging 5.9 mb/d in 2013, indicating anincrease of 0.2 mb/d over this year. In June, according to secondary sources, OPEC production isestimated at 31.36 mb/d, a decline of 106 tb/d over the previous month.

 Product market sentiment in the Atlantic Basin turned bullish in June, with gasoline strengtheningon expectations for tighter supplies amid additional requirements for the driving season. This, alongwith the drop in crude prices, caused margins to increase in the Atlantic Basin. In Asia, marginscontinued to be depressed by losses at the top of the barrel, which was due to disappointingnaphtha demand from the petrochemical sector and rising supplies in the region.

 The tanker market in June saw a generally lower trend. Dirty vessel freight rates for VLCC andSuezmax declined on the back of weak activity and lower tonnage demand, while Aframax spotfreight rates increased slightly. Clean spot freight rates decreased compared to the previous month.OPEC sailings and arrivals declined in June, while OPEC global fixtures rose by 7.7%. 

US commercial oil stocks rose further in June, increasing by 10.8 mb, the highest level sinceAugust 2011. Inventories were 17.0 mb above a year ago and 31.5 mb above the five-year average.The build was attributed mainly to products, which increased by 12.5 mb, while crude fell 1.7 mb. InJapan, the most recent monthly data for May shows commercial oil stocks rose a further 6.4 mb, thehighest level in a year. The deficit from a year ago fell 0.7% from 4.6% in the previous month, whilethe deficit with the five-year average switched to a surplus of 0.4%.The stock-build was dividedbetween crude and products, which rose 4.0 mb and 2.1 mb, respectively. 

Demand for OPEC crude in 2012 remained almost unchanged from the previous assessment at29.9 mb/d, indicating a decline of 0.1 mb/d compared to the previous year. Based on the initialforecast for world oil demand and non-OPEC supply (including OPEC NGLs and non-conventionaloil) for 2013, the demand for OPEC crude next year is projected to decline by 0.3 mb/d to average29.6 mb/d.