歐佩克（OPEC）一籃子參考原油的月平均價(jià)格2月份上漲3.72美元，漲幅超過7%，至平均54.45美元/桶，此前1月份下跌近13%。雖然美國的寒流重振了市場看漲，但對地緣政治的擔(dān)憂仍保持著波動性。3月上半月，由于石油產(chǎn)品庫存增加，美國煉油廠出現(xiàn)問題，保持警覺。隨著夏季燃料庫存的出現(xiàn)，歐洲煉油利潤率的提高也被視為對市場堅(jiān)挺的支持。。。3月上半月，該籃子平均價(jià)格為57.78美元/桶，本月早些時(shí)候達(dá)到58.64美元/桶的峰值。3月14日，該籃子價(jià)格為57.14美元/桶。

2006年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率為5.3%，2007年為4.6%，與上月持平。除中國外，發(fā)展中國家2007年的增長率預(yù)計(jì)為5.7%，2006年為6.3%，而經(jīng)合組織2007年的增長率預(yù)計(jì)為2.5%，2006年為3.1%。美國的數(shù)據(jù)喜憂參半，顯示2007年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩，市場擔(dān)憂美國次級抵押貸款市場問題的廣泛金融影響。日本的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇勢頭似乎正在增強(qiáng)，而歐元區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)則顯示，日本經(jīng)濟(jì)將迎來又一年的穩(wěn)健增長，盡管增速較去年有所下降。最近世界金融市場的動蕩始于2月27日的中國，蔓延至全球股市，引發(fā)了人們對全球經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩的擔(dān)憂。不過，幾天之內(nèi)，市場已經(jīng)企穩(wěn)，挽回了部分損失，但由于美國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的擔(dān)憂，市場依然緊張，尤其是最近幾天。央行反應(yīng)迅速，令市場放心，基本經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況依然良好。然而，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)前景潛在的下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)正在顯現(xiàn)。

隨著入冬的姍姍來遲，北美石油需求加快。燃料油需求強(qiáng)勁，影響全球石油總需求。據(jù)預(yù)測，2007年世界石油需求增長將達(dá)到130萬桶/日或1.5%，較上一個(gè)月環(huán)比增長10萬桶/日。北美第一季度的石油需求量修正后增加了10萬桶/日，平均為2545萬桶/日，增長了30萬桶/日。經(jīng)合組織其他地區(qū)的暖冬導(dǎo)致石油需求量大幅下降。2006年，第一和第四季度的溫暖天氣對全球石油需求產(chǎn)生了負(fù)面影響。下降最多的產(chǎn)品是燃料油，主要是由于經(jīng)合組織國家的燃料轉(zhuǎn)換。2006年世界石油總需求增長估計(jì)為80萬桶/日或1.0%，與上一個(gè)月環(huán)比基本持平。

2007年非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)平均為5060萬桶/日，比上一年增加120萬桶/日，較上一次評估下降4.6萬桶/日，主要是由于2006年第4季度的基線修訂。2月份的初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，歐佩克石油供應(yīng)量為5050萬桶/日。2006年，非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)量平均為4950萬桶/日，較上一年增加了50萬桶/日，較上一次評估下降了17000桶/日。這些修訂主要是由于在當(dāng)年最后一個(gè)季度的調(diào)整。美國和一些發(fā)展中國家的下調(diào)被英國行業(yè)的上調(diào)部分抵消。歐佩克原油平均日產(chǎn)量2996萬桶，與上月基本持平。

美國持續(xù)的寒冷天氣以及煉油廠的堵塞和管道問題為產(chǎn)品和原油價(jià)格提供了支撐。然而，美國和亞洲的產(chǎn)品價(jià)格未能跟上原油價(jià)格，導(dǎo)致這些市場的煉油利潤率略微下降。在歐洲，產(chǎn)品市場表現(xiàn)好于原油市場，導(dǎo)致布倫特原油煉油廠利潤率上升。過去幾周美國成品油庫存的減少，加上煉油廠的維修和計(jì)劃外的煉油廠停產(chǎn)，以及農(nóng)業(yè)部門的需求增加，可能會在未來幾周對原油和成品油價(jià)格形成支撐。不過，隨著煉油廠檢修計(jì)劃的完成，預(yù)計(jì)成品油市場將失去部分目前的強(qiáng)勢，并對煉油利潤率和原油價(jià)格構(gòu)成壓力。

初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，1月份經(jīng)合組織原油進(jìn)口量平均為3070萬桶/日，比上月增加323000桶/日。產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口量增加了40萬桶/日，達(dá)到平均1260萬桶/日。在美國，原油進(jìn)口量在2月份下降了58萬桶/日，達(dá)到950萬桶/日，而日本的進(jìn)口量在同一個(gè)月小幅下降了10萬桶/日。1月份，中國原油凈進(jìn)口量反彈至316萬桶/日，較上月增加約64.5萬桶/日，原因是進(jìn)口量增長了0.50萬桶/日，而出口量下降了14.4萬桶/日。1月份，中國石油凈進(jìn)口總量比上月增加100萬桶/日，比去年同期增長11%。印度1月份的貿(mào)易沒有出現(xiàn)任何重大變化，原油進(jìn)口為236萬桶/日，產(chǎn)品凈出口為80萬桶/日。

由于季節(jié)性維護(hù)和非計(jì)劃停產(chǎn)，美國和歐洲煉油量下降，導(dǎo)致2月份這兩個(gè)地區(qū)的產(chǎn)品庫存下降。美國成品油庫存減少4660萬桶，而原油庫存僅小幅增加30萬桶，商業(yè)石油庫存總量為9870萬桶，較上月減少4630萬桶。在歐盟16國（15歐元加上挪威），石油庫存總量為11.43億歐元，比上個(gè)月減少了1100萬歐元。歐盟16國近三分之二的衰退來自產(chǎn)品。盡管如此，美國和歐盟16國的庫存仍比五年平均水平高出1600萬和5100萬。今年1月，日本商業(yè)石油庫存扭轉(zhuǎn)了這一趨勢，增加了200萬桶至2億桶，意味著比5年平均水平高出16%的盈余，但2月份的初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，庫存下降至1.90億桶以下。

據(jù)估計(jì)，2006年歐佩克原油的平均需求為3040萬桶/日。2007年，歐佩克原油的平均需求量預(yù)計(jì)為3040萬桶/日左右。按季度計(jì)算，歐佩克原油的需求量預(yù)計(jì)分別為3130萬桶/日、2940萬桶/日、3040萬桶/日和3050萬桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket’s monthly average rallied $3.72 or over 7% in February to average $54.45/b, after droppingnearly 13% in January. While a cold snap in the USA revived market bullishness, concern in the geopolitics kept volatilityintact. In the first half of March, refinery problems in the USA amid draws on petroleum product inventories kept alertness inplace. Improved refining margins in Europe were also seen lending support to market firmness as summer fuel stockpilingemerged... The Basket averaged $57.78/b in the first half of March, after peaking to $58.64/b earlier in the month. On14 March, the Basket stood at $57.14/b. 

World economic growth at 5.3% in 2006 and 4.6% in 2007 remains unchanged from last month. Developing Countries,excluding China, are forecast to grow at 5.7% in 2007 from 6.3% in 2006, while OECD growth for 2007 is forecast at 2.5% in2007 from 3.1% in 2006. Data for the US is mixed, suggesting moderating growth in 2007, amidst worries on the widerfinancial implications of problems in the US sub-prime mortgage market. The economic recovery appears to be gainingmomentum in Japan, while in the Euro-zone, economic indicators point to another year of solid growth, albeit at lower ratesthan last year. The recent turmoil in world financial markets which started on 27 February in China and spread to equitymarkets worldwide fueled fears of slowdown in the global economy. However, within days, markets had stabilized, recoupingsome of the losses, but remain nervous, especially in recent days, due to concerns in the US housing sector. Central Bankshave been quick to respond, reassuring markets that the underlying economic conditions remained sound. However, potentialdownside risks to the world economic outlook are coming to the fore.

      Oil demand in North America picked up pace with the belated start to winter. Fuel oil demand was strong, affecting totalworld oil demand. World oil demand growth for 2007 is forecast to grow by 1.3 mb/d or 1.5%, an upward revision of0.1 mb/d from the last MOMR. First-quarter oil demand in North America was revised up by 0.1 mb/d to average25.45 mb/d, representing growth of 0.3 mb/d. Warm winter in other OECD regions led to a major decline in oildemand. For 2006, warm weather in the first and fourth quarters negatively affected global oil demand. The productwhich declined the most was fuel oil, mainly due to fuel switching in the OECD countries. Total world oil demandgrowth for 2006 is estimated at 0.8 mb/d or 1.0%, broadly unchanged from the last MOMR. 

Non-OPEC supply in 2007 is expected to average 50.6 mb/d, an increase of 1.2 mb/d over the previous year and a downwardrevision of 46,000 b/d from the last assessment, mainly due to baseline revisions for 4Q06. Preliminary data for February putsnon-OPEC supply at 50.5 mb/d. In 2006, non-OPEC oil supply averaged 49.5 mb/d, representing an increase of 0.5 mb/dover the previous year and a downward revision of 17,000 b/d compared with the last assessment. The revisions weremainly due to adjustments in the final quarter of that year. Downward revisions in the USA and some DevelopingCountries were partly offset by upward revisions in the UK sector. OPEC crude oil production averaged 29.96 mb/d inFebruary, broadly unchanged from the previous month.

  Continued cold weather in the USA along with refinery snags and pipeline problems provided support for product andcrude prices. However, product prices in the USA and Asia failed to keep up with crude prices, leading to marginallylower refinery margins in those markets. In Europe, product market performance was better than in the crude market,resulting in a rise in Brent crude oil refinery margins. A draw on product stocks in the USA over the last few weeks,along with refinery maintenance and unplanned refinery outages and higher demand from the agricultural sector, maylend support to crude and product prices over the coming weeks. However, with the completion of the refinerymaintenance schedule, product markets are expected to lose some of their current strength and exert pressure on refinerymargins and crude oil prices. 

Preliminary data shows that OECD crude oil imports averaged 30.7 mb/d in January, an increase of 323,000 b/d over theprevious month. Product imports rose by 0.4 mb/d to average 12.6 mb/d. In the USA, crude imports fell 0.58 mb/d to9.5 mb/d in February, while Japan’s imports edged down 100,000 b/d in the same month. China’s net crude oil importsrebounded to reach 3.16 mb/d in January, a gain of around 645,000 b/d over the previous month, resulting from a0.5 mb/d growth in imports versus a 144,000 b/d drop in exports. China’s total net oil imports in January increased by1.0 mb/d over the previous month and 11% over the same month last year. India’s trade did not see any significantchanges in January with crude imports at 2.36 mb/d and net product exports at 0.8 mb/d. 

Lower refining runs in USA and Europe due to seasonal maintenance and unplanned shutdowns left product inventories lowerin these two regions in February. US product stocks decreased by 46.6 mb while crude inventories saw only a minor gain of0.3 mb, leaving total commercial oil stocks at 987 mb, representing a drop of 46.3 mb from the previous month. In EU-16(Eur-15 plus Norway), total oil stocks stood at 1,143 mb, down 11 mb from the previous month. Almost two thirds of thedecline in EU-16 came from products. Nevertheless, both US and EU-16 stocks remained 16 mb and 51 mb above the fiveyearaverage. In January, Japan’s commercial oil stocks reversed the trend, increasing 2 mb to 200 mb, implying a surplus of16% above the five-year average, but preliminary data for February showed that stocks moved down below 190 mb. 

Demand for OPEC crude in 2006 is estimated to average 30.4 mb/d. In 2007, the demand for OPEC crude is expected toaverage at the same level of around 30.4 mb/d. On a quarterly basis, the demand for OPEC crude is expected at 31.3 mb/d,29.4 mb/d, 30.4 mb/d and 30.5 mb/d respectively.