8月，歐佩克參考指數(shù)下跌4.4%或3.18美元，收于68.71美元/桶。對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和股市動(dòng)蕩可能削弱能源需求的擔(dān)憂抵消了煉油廠停產(chǎn)和原油庫存持續(xù)下降造成的季節(jié)性燃料庫存下降。今年9月，歐佩克（OPEC）會(huì)議將產(chǎn)量上限提高至2730萬桶/日，試圖緩解供應(yīng)方面的擔(dān)憂，因?yàn)樵谝粋€(gè)落后的市場(chǎng)上，庫存正在減少。然而，在墨西哥發(fā)生的一次管道襲擊，比美國原油和汽油庫存要大得多，因?yàn)轱Z風(fēng)導(dǎo)致美國海灣地區(qū)的煉油廠關(guān)閉，9月13日價(jià)格創(chuàng)下了創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的74.64美元。此外，應(yīng)注意的是，歐佩克的參考籃子已修訂為包括恩戈拉的中甜基拉索原油（30.8API和0.34%硫），自2007年1月1日起生效。2007年和2008年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率本月保持在5%不變。不過，預(yù)計(jì)金融市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩的影響將在2007年下半年和2008年對(duì)美國和世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長產(chǎn)生影響，盡管目前還不足以衡量這種影響的規(guī)模。在信貸市場(chǎng)，信心遠(yuǎn)未恢復(fù)。這在很大程度上取決于貨幣化，以緩解資本成本上升和信貸緊縮帶來的壓力。繼日本央行（Bank of Japan）和歐洲央行（ECB）的克制之后，所有人的目光都集中在9月18日的美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)會(huì)議上，屆時(shí)普遍預(yù)計(jì)利率將下調(diào)25個(gè)基點(diǎn)。此外，在本月早些時(shí)候公布8月份美國就業(yè)報(bào)告后，8月份美國消費(fèi)者信心下降，市場(chǎng)情緒進(jìn)一步惡化。日本和歐元區(qū)的疲軟跡象也很明顯。中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長繼續(xù)有增無減，但8月份通脹率已達(dá)到10年來的高點(diǎn)，主要原因是食品價(jià)格居高不下，要求進(jìn)一步收緊貨幣政策。鑒于目前第三季度的世界石油需求增長，以及第四季度的正常冬季預(yù)期，2007年世界石油需求增長預(yù)計(jì)為130萬桶/日或1.5%，與上一個(gè)月環(huán)比基本持平。8月份世界石油需求遵循典型的夏季季節(jié)性趨勢(shì)。8月份石油需求增長最快的是發(fā)展中國家，特別是中國。由于汽油消費(fèi)放緩，美國8月份的石油需求下降了0.5%或0.1百萬桶/日，達(dá)到平均2100萬桶/日。2008年，世界石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將增長130萬桶/日，與之前的預(yù)測(cè)一致。由于政府限制能源使用的政策，中國2008年的石油需求增長預(yù)測(cè)為40萬桶/日，比今年的增長下降了0.05萬桶/日。預(yù)計(jì)2008年交通和工業(yè)燃料將是主要增長部門。2007年，非歐佩克成員國的供應(yīng)增長比上一年略有下降，為84萬桶/日。這些調(diào)整很大程度上歸因于第三季度墨西哥和阿塞拜疆供應(yīng)量的大幅下調(diào)。2008，非歐佩克供應(yīng)增長經(jīng)歷了輕微的向下修正，達(dá)到1.04 Mb/d，因?yàn)?007年的一些修訂已經(jīng)擴(kuò)展到2008，更多的數(shù)據(jù)已經(jīng)成為項(xiàng)目初創(chuàng)公司和增長的數(shù)據(jù)。2007年和2008年，天然氣和非常規(guī)石油的增長保持不變，分別為0.30 mb/d和0.52 mb/d。8月份，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量平均為3039萬桶/日，較上月下降約92200桶/日，伊拉克原油產(chǎn)量大幅下降14.73萬桶/日，至平均199萬桶/日。隨著駕駛季接近尾聲，預(yù)計(jì)過去幾周產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)勢(shì)頭將大幅放緩，對(duì)整個(gè)石油綜合體施加下行壓力。然而，由于美國煉油廠持續(xù)故障和汽油庫存下降，上個(gè)月產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)保持相對(duì)強(qiáng)勁，并未侵蝕美國煉油廠的利潤率。近期成品油市場(chǎng)的看漲走勢(shì)，可能在今冬天氣寒冷的情況下，為煉廠經(jīng)濟(jì)和原油價(jià)格提供進(jìn)一步支撐。8月份，歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量增加了100萬桶/日，達(dá)到平均1270萬桶/日，在全球現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量中保持了67.5%的穩(wěn)定。歐佩克的航次幾乎保持穩(wěn)定，只是略有增加。由于噸位供應(yīng)強(qiáng)勁，2007年超大型油輪的現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)降至最低水平，原油油輪市場(chǎng)繼續(xù)低迷。同樣，蘇伊士型油輪在活動(dòng)受限和噸位增加的情況下表現(xiàn)出進(jìn)一步疲軟。對(duì)于清潔市場(chǎng)，有限的套利影響了市場(chǎng)，蘇伊士以東的即期運(yùn)價(jià)保持穩(wěn)定，而蘇伊士以西的運(yùn)價(jià)在所有報(bào)告的航線上都有所下降，加勒比海至美國的運(yùn)價(jià)跌幅最大。初步估計(jì)，經(jīng)合組織7月份原油進(jìn)口量為3030萬桶/日，較上月增加23萬桶/日，其中產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口量在下降15.3萬桶/日后達(dá)到1040萬桶/日。原油和產(chǎn)品的年降幅均在5%左右。8月份，美國原油凈進(jìn)口量下降4.4萬桶/日，達(dá)到1014萬桶/日，同比下降3.5%。對(duì)美國的凈產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口量猛跌340000桶/日，月跌幅達(dá)14%。日本8月原油進(jìn)口保持穩(wěn)定，小幅下降1%，而產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口較上月激增21%。7月份，中國石油進(jìn)口總量保持穩(wěn)定，增幅為2%，而出口下降幫助凈進(jìn)口年增長27%。印度7月份石油凈進(jìn)口增長11%，主要受原油進(jìn)口支撐。美國商業(yè)股連續(xù)第二個(gè)月下跌，至約10.23億股，但較五年平均水平仍高出540億股。原油庫存下降近1200萬桶至33000萬桶，與一年前持平，而原油庫存下降了1400萬桶。餾分油庫存繼續(xù)保持季節(jié)性增長，與五年平均水平持平。歐盟16國（15歐元加上挪威）商業(yè)庫存在前兩個(gè)月下降3500萬桶后略微增加了80萬桶，達(dá)到114400萬桶，比五年平均水平上升了3000萬桶。在日本，7月商業(yè)石油庫存增加950萬桶，至195萬桶，比5年平均水平增加700萬桶，但9月第一周的初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，自7月底以來，原油庫存下降了1400萬桶，而餾分油則增加了800萬桶。預(yù)計(jì)2007年歐佩克原油需求量平均為3100萬桶/日，比上年增加10萬桶/日；2008年歐佩克原油需求量平均為3080萬桶/日，比上年減少21.6萬桶/日。

The OPEC Reference declined 4.4% or $3.18 in August to settle at $68.71/b. Concern that economic risks and equity marketturbulence might dent energy demand offset the drop in seasonal fuel inventories amid refinery outages and continued drawson crude oil stocks. In September, the OPEC Conference raised the production ceiling to 27.3 mb/d in an attempt to easesupply concerns amid stock draws in a backwardated market. However, a pipeline attack in Mexico, larger-than-expected fallsin US crude oil and gasoline inventories and refinery closures in the US Gulf due to hurricanes pushed prices to a record highof $74.64/b on 13 September. Additionally, it should be noted that the OPEC Reference Basket has been revised to includeAngola’s medium-sweet Girassoal crude (30.8API and 0.34% sulphur), effective from 1 January 2007. World economic growth remains unchanged for 2007 and 2008 at 5% this month. However, it is expected that the fallout fromfinancial market turmoil will impact US and world economic growth in the second half of 2007 and 2008, although it is stilltoo early to gauge the size of the effect. In credit markets, confidence is far from reestablished. Much will depend on monetaryaccommodation to ease the strains produced by the higher cost of capital and tighter credit availability. Following restraint bythe Bank of Japan and ECB, all eyes are now on the Fed meeting on 18 September, when it is generally expected that interestrates will be lowered by 25 basis points. Furthermore, US consumer confidence dipped in August and sentiment furtherdeteriorated after a negative August US employment report earlier this month. Signs of weakness are also noticeable in Japanand the Euro-zone. Growth in China continues unabated, but inflation has reached 10-year highs in August, mainly due to highfood prices, calling for further monetary tightening. Given the current world oil demand growth in the third quarter, along with the anticipation of a normal winter in the fourthquarter, world oil demand growth for 2007 is forecast at 1.3 mb/d or 1.5%, broadly unchanged from the last MOMR. World oildemand in August followed the typical summer seasonality trend. August oil demand grew the most in the developingcountries, especially China. As a result of slow gasoline consumption, US oil demand in August declined by 0.5% or 0.1 mb/dy-o-y to average 21 mb/d. In 2008, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.3 mb/d, in line with the previous forecast. As aresult of the governmental policy to curb the use of energy, Chinese oil demand growth forecast for 2008 at 0.4 mb/d, a declineof 0.05 mb/d from this year’s growth. Transport and industrial fuel are expected to be the main growth sectors in 2008. Non-OPEC supply growth in 2007 has been revised down slightly to stand at 0.84 mb/d over the previous year. Theadjustments were due in a large part to significant downward revisions to Mexico and Azerbaijan supply in the third quarter.For 2008, non-OPEC supply growth experienced a minor downward revision to stand at 1.04 mb/d as some of the 2007revisions have been extended into 2008 and more data has become available for project startups and ramp ups. Growth inOPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils has been left unchanged at 0.30 mb/d in 2007 and 0.52 mb/d in 2008. In August,OPEC crude oil production averaged 30.39 mb/d, a decline of around 92,200 b/d from the previous month, as production fromIraq witnessed a significant decline of 147,300 b/d to average 1.99 mb/d. With the approaching end of the driving season, product market momentum was expected to slow sharply over the lastweeks, exerting downward pressure on the entire petroleum complex. However, due to continued refinery glitches andfalling gasoline stocks in the USA, the product market remained relatively strong last month and did not erode USrefinery margins. The recent bullish developments in the product markets could provide further support for refineryeconomics and crude prices in the case of cold weather this winter. OPEC spot fixtures increased 1.0 mb/d in August to average 12.7 mb/d, maintaining a steady 67.5% of global spotfixtures. OPEC sailings remained nearly steady with only a minor increase. The crude oil tanker market remainedbearish with spot freight rates for VLCCs declining to the lowest level so far in 2007 due to strong tonnage supply.Similarly, Suezmax tankers displayed further weakness on the back of limited activities and increased tonnage. For theclean market, limited arbitrage affected the market with East of Suez spot freight rates remaining steady while West ofSuez rates dropped on all reported routes with Caribbean to the USA rates displaying the largest decline. Preliminary estimates put OECD crude oil imports for July at 30.3 mb/d, up 230,000 b/d from the previous month, whileproduct imports reached 10.4 mb/d after a decline of 153,000 b/d. Both crude and products experienced annual declinesof around 5%. US net crude oil imports fell 44,000 b/d to hit 10.14 mb/d in August, representing an annual decline of3.5%. Net product imports to the US plunged 340,000 b/d representing a monthly decline of 14%. Japan’s crude oilimports remained steady in August with a minor decline of 1%, while product imports surged 21% over the previousmonth. China’s total oil imports remained steady in July with a 2% increase, while falling exports helped net imports toincrease 27% on an annual basis. India’s net oil imports rose 11% in July supported mainly by crude oil imports. US commercial stocks continued to drop for the second consecutive month to stand at around 1,023 mb, but remained54 mb over the five-year average. Crude oil stocks fell nearly 12 mb to 330 mb, the same level as a year ago, whilegasoline dropped 14 mb. Distillate stocks continued their seasonal build, remaining in line with the five-year average.EU-16 (Eur-15 plus Norway) commercial stocks increased a slight 0.8 mb, after falling 35 mb over the previous twomonths, to stand at 1,144 mb, up 30 mb from the five-year average. In Japan, commercial oil stocks rose 9.5 mb in Julyto 195 mb, an increase of 7 mb over the five-year average but preliminary data for the first week of September show thatcrude oil stocks have fallen 14 mb since end-July while distillates rose 8 mb. The demand for OPEC crude in 2007 is expected to average 31.0 mb/d, an increase of 0.1 mb/d over the previous year.In 2008, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 30.8 mb/d, a decrease of 216,000 b/d.