10月份，歐佩克參考籃子價(jià)格仍不穩(wěn)定，因?yàn)槊涝＼浖ぐl(fā)了未來市場(chǎng)的基金買入，中東地緣政治加劇了市場(chǎng)看漲。獲利回吐和對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩的擔(dān)憂為價(jià)格提供了一定的上限。石油輸出國(guó)組織（OPEC）的一籃子參考價(jià)格創(chuàng)下每月79.36美元/桶的新高，較上月上漲5.18美元或7%。這種上升趨勢(shì)持續(xù)到11月，因?yàn)槊涝M(jìn)一步下跌鼓勵(lì)了特殊購(gòu)買行為，11月7日價(jià)格達(dá)到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的90.71美元/桶。然而，經(jīng)濟(jì)擔(dān)憂和較低的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期幫助緩解了市場(chǎng)對(duì)供應(yīng)的擔(dān)憂，11月14日該籃子指數(shù)跌至86.57美元。2007年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率上調(diào)0.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)至5.2%，主要是由于美國(guó)增長(zhǎng)率上調(diào)（0.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)）和中國(guó)增長(zhǎng)率上調(diào)（0.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)）。在美國(guó)，第三季度國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）3.9%的增長(zhǎng)率（這是去年第一季度以來的最快增速）預(yù)計(jì)在未來兩個(gè)季度不會(huì)達(dá)到。不斷加深的房地產(chǎn)暴跌和持續(xù)的銀行業(yè)擔(dān)憂促使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)進(jìn)一步降低利率，市場(chǎng)普遍猜測(cè)，12月份可能會(huì)再次降息。歐元區(qū)和日本第三季度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)都出人意料地強(qiáng)勁，盡管歐元飆升，日本的建筑業(yè)也陷入困境，但第四季度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速正在放緩。中國(guó)繼續(xù)以投資為主導(dǎo)的增長(zhǎng)，但通脹上升是一個(gè)日益嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)。2008年，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)不變，為4.9%。雖然allOECD地區(qū)的預(yù)測(cè)有所下調(diào)，但非洲和拉丁美洲的上調(diào)抵消了這一點(diǎn)。據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)，2007年世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)率為120萬桶/日或1.4%，較上月下降10萬桶/日。美國(guó)前十個(gè)月的石油消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)計(jì)僅為40000桶/日，同比增長(zhǎng)0.2%，較之前的預(yù)測(cè)下降了16萬桶/日。北美洲的深冬以及運(yùn)輸燃料的高價(jià)格似乎正在減少第四季度的區(qū)域石油消費(fèi)，導(dǎo)致該季度石油消費(fèi)量下降了10萬桶/日。盡管中國(guó)上調(diào)了10%左右的成品油價(jià)格，但預(yù)計(jì)這次新漲價(jià)不會(huì)對(duì)中國(guó)石油總需求產(chǎn)生重大影響。2008年，世界石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)130萬桶/日，達(dá)到平均8700萬桶/日，較上月下降3萬桶/日。2007年，非歐佩克成員國(guó)的供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)比上年略有下降，達(dá)到80萬桶/日。這一調(diào)整主要是由于美國(guó)、挪威、英國(guó)和巴西在第三和第四季度的下調(diào)。2008年，非歐佩克成員國(guó)的供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)略有下調(diào)，目前為100萬桶/日，因?yàn)?007年的一些修訂已經(jīng)延長(zhǎng)到2008年，而且隨著更多項(xiàng)目啟動(dòng)和產(chǎn)能提升數(shù)據(jù)的提供。2007年和2008年，天然氣和非常規(guī)石油的增長(zhǎng)基本保持不變，分別為0.33 mb/d和0.52 mb/d。10月份，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量平均為3099萬桶/日，較上月增加約27萬桶/日，其中沙特阿拉伯的產(chǎn)量大幅增加11萬桶/日，尼日利亞和伊朗的產(chǎn)量略有下降。在過去的兩個(gè)月里，原油價(jià)格超過了產(chǎn)品價(jià)格，削弱了全球煉油廠的利潤(rùn)率，特別是低硫基準(zhǔn)原油。目前相對(duì)疲軟的產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)情緒可能會(huì)隨著我們接近取暖石油的高峰期而改變，這可能會(huì)提高產(chǎn)品價(jià)格和煉油廠利潤(rùn)率。不過，由于中間餾分油庫存相對(duì)較舒適，市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)將受到產(chǎn)品價(jià)格變動(dòng)以外的因素推動(dòng)，除非我們面臨西半球的嚴(yán)冬或美國(guó)的另一輪計(jì)劃外煉油廠停產(chǎn)。10月份，歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量較上月增加了7%，平均為12.74石油輸出國(guó)組織（OPEC）的航行量略有下降，平均為2314萬桶/日。10月份，世界各地的入境人數(shù)保持穩(wěn)定，美國(guó)的入境人數(shù)下降了7萬桶/日。隨著冬季貨物開始上市，超大型油輪市場(chǎng)略有好轉(zhuǎn)。在中東線/東線和西線，價(jià)格上漲了3%，盡管燃油價(jià)格上漲限制了價(jià)格上漲。隨著噸位需求的增加和可用性的下降，清潔油輪運(yùn)價(jià)處于較好的位置。初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，受原油凈進(jìn)口下降的影響，經(jīng)合組織9月份石油凈進(jìn)口總額減少了80萬桶/日，而產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口則較上月增加了19.4萬桶/日。10月份，美國(guó)原油進(jìn)口量下降35萬桶/日，平均約960萬桶/日，美國(guó)產(chǎn)品進(jìn)口量增加34萬桶/日，原因是煉油廠產(chǎn)量下降。10月，日本石油凈進(jìn)口量增加30萬桶/日，原因是原油進(jìn)口量增加，預(yù)計(jì)煉油廠將從預(yù)定的扭虧為盈。9月份，中國(guó)原油進(jìn)口保持穩(wěn)定，平均為330萬桶/日，而成品油進(jìn)口增長(zhǎng)11%。由于原油進(jìn)口下降，印度9月份石油凈進(jìn)口下降了15%，表明y-o-ydecline下降了5%。美國(guó)商業(yè)石油庫存連續(xù)第三個(gè)月下降，達(dá)到10.14億桶，較上月減少740萬桶，但仍為700萬桶，比五年平均水平高出1%。原油庫存繼續(xù)下滑，下跌900萬桶，至31200萬桶，為2005年9月以來的最低水平，但仍比五年平均水平高出2%。汽油推動(dòng)產(chǎn)品庫存增加170萬輛，盡管汽油庫存增加了380萬輛，但仍低于五年平均水平。在歐盟15國(guó)和挪威，石油庫存總量驟降1600萬桶至112200萬桶，為2005年4月以來的最低水平，但仍高于5年平均水平1100萬桶，其中原油占600萬桶，產(chǎn)品占500萬桶。9月份，日本商業(yè)石油庫存下降逾1600萬桶，創(chuàng)下18個(gè)月來的新低，原油庫存下降超過80%，但10月份的初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，石油庫存總量已溫和回升。預(yù)計(jì)2007年歐佩克原油需求量平均為3110萬桶/日，比上年增加10萬桶/日。2008年，對(duì)歐佩克原油的平均需求預(yù)計(jì)為3080萬桶/日，下降了20萬桶/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket price remained volatile in October, as US dollar weakness inspired fund buying in the futuresmarket with the Mideast geopolitics adding to market bullishness. Profit-taking and concern over slower economy growthprovided some cap on prices. The OPEC Reference Basket set a monthly high of $79.36/b, representing a gain of $5.18 oralmost 7% over the previous month. The upward trend continued into November as further dollar declines encouragedspeculative buying and prices reached a record high of $90.71/b on 7 November. However, economic concerns and lowerdemand growth expectations helped to ease supply fears and the Basket fell to $86.57 on 14 November. World economic growth in 2007 was revised up by 0.1 percentage points (pp) to 5.2%, mainly on upward revisions to growthin USA (+0.2 pp) and China (+0.2 pp). In the US, the 3.9% growth in third quarter GDP — the fastest pace since the firstquarter of last year — is not expected to be matched in the next two quarters. The deepening housing slump and continuedbanking concerns induced the Fed to further lower interest rates and there is widespread speculation that another cut could beseen in December. Both Euro-zone and Japanese growth in 3Q were surprisingly strong despite the soaring euro and a troubledconstruction sector in Japan, but slowdowns in Q4 are underway. China continues its investment-led growth but risinginflation is an increasing challenge. For 2008, the global growth forecast is unchanged at 4.9%. While the forecast for allOECD regions has been revised down somewhat, this is counterbalanced by upward revisions for Africa and Latin America. The world oil demand growth for 2007 is forecast at 1.2 mb/d or 1.4%, representing a downward revision of 0.1 mb/d from theprevious month. US oil consumption growth in the first ten months is estimated at just 40,000 b/d or 0.2% y-o-y, representinga downward revision of 0.16 mb/d from the previous estimate. Late winter in North America along with the high price oftransport fuel appears to be reducing regional oil consumption in the fourth quarter, leading to a downward revision of0.1 mb/d for that quarter. Although China increased product prices by around 10%, this new price hike is not expected to havea major impact on total Chinese oil demand. In 2008, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.3 mb/d to average 87.0 mb/d,representing a downward revision of 30,000 b/d from last month. Non-OPEC supply growth in 2007 has been revised down slightly to stand at 800,000 b/d over the previous year. Theadjustments were mainly due to downward revisions to the US, Norway, UK and Brazil in the third and fourth quarters. For2008, the forecast for non-OPEC supply growth was revised down slightly to now stand at 1.0 mb/d as some of the 2007revisions have been extended into 2008 and as more data on project startups and ramp-ups has become available. Growth inOPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils for 2007 and 2008 was left broadly unchanged at 0.33 mb/d and 0.52 mb/drespectively. In October, OPEC crude oil production averaged 30.99 mb/d, a rise of around 270,000 b/d from the previousmonth, as production from Saudi Arabia showed a significant increase of 110,000 b/d, with minor declines in productionfrom Nigeria and Iran. In the past two months, crude prices outstripped product prices and undermined refinery margins across the globe, especiallyfor light sweet benchmark crudes. The current relatively weak product market sentiment may change as we approach the peakdemand season for heating oil, which could lift product prices and refinery margins. However, due to relatively comfortablemiddle distillate stocks, the market is expected to be driven by factors other than product price movements, unless we face asevere winter in the Western Hemisphere or another round of unplanned refinery outages in the USA. OPEC spot fixtures increased by 7% in October from the previous month to average 12.74 mb/d, while OPEC sailingsexperienced a slight decline to average 23.14 mb/d. Arrivals remained steady around the world with US arrivals falling aminor 70,000 b/d in October. The VLCC market improved slightly as winter cargoes began to appear in the market. On theMiddle East/eastbound and westbound routes, rates increased 3% although higher bunker fuel prices capped the rise. Cleantanker freight rates were in a better position as tonnage demand increased and availability declined. Preliminary data show that OECD total net oil imports decreased 0.8 mb/d in September on the back of lower net crude oilimports, while product imports experienced a gain of 194,000 b/d from the previous month. US crude imports fell 350,000 b/din October to average around 9.6 mb/d and US product imports increased by 340,000 b/d on the back of lower refinery runs. InOctober, Japan’s net oil imports rose 300,000 b/d, driven by higher crude imports in anticipation of the emergence of refineriesfrom scheduled turnarounds. China’s crude oil imports remained steady in September to average 3.3 mb/d while productimports rose 11%. India’s net oil imports dropped 15% in September due to a fall in crude oil imports, indicating a y-o-ydecline of 5%. US commercial oil stocks dropped for the third consecutive month to hit 1,014 mb, representing a decline of 7.4 mb from theprevious month but remain 7 mb or 1% above the five-year average. Crude oil stocks continued their downward trend, falling9 mb to stand at 312 mb, the lowest level since September 2005 but still 2% above the five-year average. Product stocks rose1.7 mb, driven by gasoline which, despite a build of 3.8 mb, remained below the five-year average. In EU-15 and Norway,total oil stocks plunged 16 mb to 1,122 mb, the lowest since April 2005, but remained 11 mb above the five-year average withcrude oil accounting for 6 mb and products for 5 mb. Japan’s commercial oil stocks fell more than 16 mb in September to hitan 18-month low, with crude oil stock-draws representing more than 80% but preliminary data for October show that total oilstocks have recovered moderately. The demand for OPEC crude in 2007 is expected to average 31.1 mb/d, an increase of 0.1 mb/d over the previous year. In2008, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 30.8 mb/d, a decline of 0.2 mb/d.