原油價格變動8月份，歐佩克參考籃子下跌4.86美元，至100.75美元/桶。紐約商品交易所指數(shù)下跌6.32美元，至96.08美元/桶，ICE布倫特指數(shù)下跌4.79美元，至103.40美元/桶。在供應充足和需求低迷的情況下，投機者大幅削減凈多頭頭寸。隨著俄克拉荷馬州庫欣（Cushing）股市最終停滯不前，布倫特原油期貨價格上漲至7.30美元/桶左右。2014年和2015年世界經(jīng)濟增長率分別保持在3.1%和3.4%不變。2014年第二季度美國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值好于預期，被歐元區(qū)持續(xù)的挑戰(zhàn)和日本2014年第二季度國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長的大幅下降所抵消。這使得2014年和2015年OECDGDP增長預測分別保持在1.8%和2.0%。對中國和印度的預期保持不變，中國增長7.4%和7.2%，印度增長5.5%和5.8%。巴西2014年和2015年分別下調(diào)至0.7%和1.4%，俄羅斯2014年和2015年的全球石油需求增長預測分別下調(diào)至0.3%和1.1%。2014年世界石油需求增長預計將達到105萬桶/日，下調(diào)幅度約為50噸/日，主要是由于經(jīng)濟合作與發(fā)展區(qū)域的表現(xiàn)弱于預期。2015年，世界石油需求預計將增加119萬桶/日，這是一個微小的向下調(diào)整，因為經(jīng)合組織增長放緩抵消了非經(jīng)合組織地區(qū)的向上修正。2014年，世界石油供應增長預計將增加168萬桶/日，繼上個月的180噸/日修正之后。2015年，非歐佩克國家的石油供應量預計將達到124萬桶/日，較之前的預測下降30桶/日。據(jù)預測，歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)液體在2015年將增長20萬桶/日，達到平均60.3萬桶/日。8月份，歐佩克的原油產(chǎn)量按次要來源計算增加了231噸/日，達到平均30.35萬桶/日。大西洋盆地的產(chǎn)品市場和煉油業(yè)務產(chǎn)品市場在美國汽油需求強勁和緊縮的情況下得到了支持庫存下降帶來的情緒。穩(wěn)定的中間餾分油需求和流入該地區(qū)的資金減少阻止了歐洲利潤率的下降，而美國利潤率則因WTI價格下跌而得到提振。在亞洲，輕質(zhì)餾分油市場走弱導致煉油廠利潤率繼續(xù)走弱。由于低噸位需求和活動減少，8月份臟油油輪市場普遍疲軟。蘇伊士東部的清潔油輪運價有所提高，但西部略有下降。與上個月相比，歐佩克和中東的航行量有所下降，盡管除遠東地區(qū)外，所有地區(qū)的抵達量都有所增加。7月份，商業(yè)石油庫存有所增加，但仍低于5年平均水平3700萬桶。原油顯示出約2200萬英鎊的盈余，而產(chǎn)品則出現(xiàn)5900萬英鎊的赤字。就遠期覆蓋率而言，經(jīng)合組織7月份商業(yè)庫存為58.2天，8月份的初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，美國商業(yè)石油總庫存增長約370萬桶，比5年平均水平高出約100萬桶。原油和產(chǎn)品庫存分別出現(xiàn)700萬桶和300萬桶的盈余。2014年歐佩克原油供需平衡從上個月的29.50萬桶/日下調(diào)了20萬桶/日。2015年，歐佩克原油需求量也下調(diào)了20萬桶/日，降至29.20萬桶/日。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket fell by $4.86 in August to stand at $100.75/b. Nymex WTIdeclined by $6.32 to $96.08/b and ICE Brent dropped $4.79 to $103.40/b. Speculatorssharply cut net long positions amid ample supply and low demand. The Brent-WTI spreadwidened to around $7.30/b as stock draws at Cushing, Oklahoma, have finally stalled.World EconomyWorld economic growth for 2014 and 2015 remains unchanged at 3.1% and 3.4%respectively. A better-than-expected US GDP in 2Q14 was offset by on-going challengesin the Euro-zone and a large decline in 2Q14 GDP growth in Japan. This kept the OECDGDP growth forecast at 1.8% in 2014 and 2.0% in 2015. Expectations for China andIndia remain unchanged, with China growing at 7.4% and 7.2%, and India at 5.5% and5.8%. Brazil has been revised down to 0.7% in 2014 and 1.4% in 2015, and Russia’sGDP growth forecast has also been lowered to 0.3% in 2014 and 1.1% in 2015.World Oil DemandWorld oil demand growth in 2014 is expected to reach 1.05 mb/d, following a downwardrevision of around 50 tb/d, mainly due to the weaker-than-expected performance of theOECD region. In 2015, world oil demand is forecast to increase by 1.19 mb/d,representing a marginal downward adjustment, as an upward revision in the non-OECDregion was offset by slower OECD growth.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC oil supply growth is expected to increase by 1.68 mb/d in 2014, following anupward revision of 180 tb/d from last month. In 2015, non-OPEC oil supply is projected togrow by 1.24 mb/d, representing a downward adjustment of 30 tb/d from the previousforecast. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 0.2 mb/d in2015 to average 6.03 mb/d. In August, OPEC crude oil production according tosecondary sources increased by 231 tb/d to average 30.35 mb/d.Product Markets and Refining OperationsProduct markets in the Atlantic Basin saw support from strong US gasoline demand amida tightening sentiment due to falling inventories. Steady middle distillate demand andlower inflows into the region prevented European margins from dropping while USmargins were boosted by falling WTI prices. In Asia, the weaker light distillates marketcaused refinery margins to continue weakening.Tanker MarketA general weak sentiment was seen in the dirty tanker market in August on the back oflow tonnage demand and reduced activities. Clean tanker freight rates improved East ofSuez but encountered a slight decline in the West. OPEC and Middle East sailingsdeclined compared to the previous month, although arrivals in all regions were higher,except in the Far East.Stock MovementsOECD commercial oil inventories rose in July, but remained 37 mb below the five-yearaverage. Crude showed a surplus of around 22 mb, while products registered a deficit of59 mb. In terms of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 58.2 days in July.Preliminary data for August shows that US total commercial oil stocks rose by around3.7 mb, which is around 10.0 mb above the five-year average. Crude and product stocksshowed surpluses of 7.0 mb and 3.0 mb, respectively.Balance of Supply and DemandDemand for OPEC crude in 2014 was revised down by 0.2 mb/d from the previousmonth to stand at 29.5 mb/d. In 2015, required OPEC crude was also revised down by0.2 mb/d to stand at 29.2 mb/d.