原油價(jià)格變動(dòng)

石油輸出國(guó)組織（OPEC）2月份參考原油價(jià)格連續(xù)第三個(gè)月上漲，最終上漲約2%，至平均53.37美元/桶。原油期貨價(jià)格連續(xù)第二個(gè)月在相對(duì)狹窄的區(qū)間內(nèi)交易。歐佩克和一些非歐佩克產(chǎn)油國(guó)對(duì)供應(yīng)調(diào)整的高度遵守支撐了上漲。在原油期貨市場(chǎng)，2月份ICE布倫特原油期貨價(jià)格上漲1%，至平均56美元/桶，NYMEX WTI原油期貨價(jià)格上漲1.6%，至53.46美元/桶。布倫特WTI原油期貨價(jià)差收窄至2.53美元/桶，這為美國(guó)的套利經(jīng)濟(jì)提供了支撐。投機(jī)性活動(dòng)連續(xù)第三個(gè)月創(chuàng)下新高，為油價(jià)提供了額外支撐。

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)

2016年和2017年，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期分別保持在3.0%和3.2%。經(jīng)合組織2017年的增長(zhǎng)率保持在1.9%不變，美國(guó)、歐元區(qū)和日本的增長(zhǎng)率沒有任何變化。預(yù)計(jì)2017年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將增長(zhǎng)6.2%，與上一份報(bào)告持平。印度目前預(yù)計(jì)將出現(xiàn)小幅減速，2017年將小幅下調(diào)至7.0%。俄羅斯2017年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率仍保持在1.0%，而巴西的經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)略高，為0.5%。

世界石油需求

2016年世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)略高于50 tb/d，目前顯示增長(zhǎng)138萬(wàn)桶/d，平均95.05萬(wàn)桶/d。主要原因是經(jīng)合組織歐洲、亞太地區(qū)和中國(guó)的石油需求高于預(yù)期，部分被中東的小幅下調(diào)所抵消。2017年，石油需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)計(jì)約為126萬(wàn)桶/日，較上月預(yù)測(cè)高出70噸/日，達(dá)到平均9631萬(wàn)桶/日。上調(diào)的原因是經(jīng)合組織（OECD）歐洲和亞太地區(qū)對(duì)石油需求的更樂觀預(yù)期。

世界石油供應(yīng)

根據(jù)上一份報(bào)告，非歐佩克國(guó)家的石油供應(yīng)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)計(jì)將在2016年收縮66萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到平均5734萬(wàn)桶/日。加拿大和其他經(jīng)合組織歐洲地區(qū)16年第4季度的增長(zhǎng)被美國(guó)、挪威、澳大利亞、文萊和阿塞拜疆的下調(diào)所抵消。2017年，非歐佩克國(guó)家的石油供應(yīng)量預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)40萬(wàn)桶/日，而此前的修正值為16萬(wàn)桶/日，平均為57.74萬(wàn)桶/日。加拿大油砂和美國(guó)供應(yīng)前景的改善是修正的主要因素。2007年歐佩克天然氣產(chǎn)量下調(diào)了20 tb/d，目前顯示增長(zhǎng)為13萬(wàn)桶/d。根據(jù)第二來(lái)源，2月份歐佩克天然氣產(chǎn)量下降了14萬(wàn)桶/d，平均為3196萬(wàn)桶/d。

產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)和煉油業(yè)務(wù)

大西洋流域的產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)喜憂參半。較高的汽油出口機(jī)會(huì)和強(qiáng)勁的中間餾分油需求支撐了歐洲市場(chǎng)，而美國(guó)的利潤(rùn)率則因桶頂和桶底的疲軟而下降。與此同時(shí)，盡管由于汽油市場(chǎng)的一些看跌信號(hào)，亞洲煉油廠利潤(rùn)率略有下降，但仍保持在春季煉油廠維護(hù)季節(jié)的健康水平。

油輪市場(chǎng)

二月份臟油輪的即期運(yùn)價(jià)下降，所有報(bào)告航線上的所有船只的運(yùn)價(jià)都下降。受活動(dòng)受限、東部農(nóng)歷新年假期和船隊(duì)擴(kuò)張的影響，運(yùn)費(fèi)下降。超大型油輪、蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪的運(yùn)價(jià)比一個(gè)月前平均下降了21%。

股票變動(dòng)

經(jīng)合組織（OECD）1月份商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存增長(zhǎng)至30.06億桶。在這個(gè)水平上，經(jīng)合組織的商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存比五年平均水平高出2.78億桶。原油和成品油的盈余分別為209mb和69mb a，高于季節(jié)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。就遠(yuǎn)期覆蓋天數(shù)而言，經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)股為63.8天，比5年平均水平高出約4.9天。

供需平衡

2016年，歐佩克原油需求量為3160萬(wàn)桶/日，較上年增長(zhǎng)約190萬(wàn)桶/日。2017年，歐佩克原油需求預(yù)計(jì)為3240萬(wàn)桶/日，比今年高出約70萬(wàn)桶/日。

Crude Oil Price Movements 

The OPEC Reference Basket rose in February for the third consecutive month, ending up about 2% to average$53.37/b. Crude futures, traded in a relatively narrow range for the second month in a row. High compliance withsupply adjustments by OPEC and some non-OPEC producers supported gains. In the crude futures markets,ICE Brent ended 1% higher to average $56/b in February and NYMEX WTI increased 1.6% to $53.46/b. TheBrent-WTI spread narrowed at $2.53/b, which is supporting arbitrage economics to the US. Speculative activity hita fresh record high for the third month in a row, providing additional support to oil prices. 

World Economy 

Global economic growth expectations remain at 3.0% in 2016 and 3.2% in 2017. OECD growth in 2017 isunchanged at 1.9%, with growth in US, Euro-zone and Japan seeing no revisions. China is expected to grow by6.2% in 2017, unchanged from the previous report. India is now expected to see a slight deceleration, following amarginal downward revision to 7.0% in 2017. Russia’s 2017 growth remains at 1.0%, while the forecast for Brazilwas revised slightly higher to 0.5%. 

World Oil Demand 

The world oil demand growth estimate for 2016 was revised marginally higher by around 50 tb/d to now showgrowth of 1.38 mb/d to average 95.05 mb/d. Revisions were driven primarily by higher-than-anticipated 4Q16 oildemand in OECD Europe, and Asia Pacific, as well as China, partially offset by minor downward adjustments inthe Middle East. For 2017, oil demand growth is anticipated to be around 1.26 mb/d, higher by 70 tb/d fromprevious month projections, to average 96.31 mb/d. The upward adjustments were due to more optimisticexpectations for oil demand in OECD Europe, as well as Asia Pacific. 

World Oil Supply 

Non-OPEC oil supply growth is estimated to show a contraction of 0.66 mb/d in 2016, in line with the previousreport, to average 57.34 mb/d. Higher 4Q16 growth in Canada and Other OECD Europe was offset by downwardrevisions in the US, Norway, Australia, Brunei and Azerbaijan. In 2017, non-OPEC oil supply is projected to growby 0.40 mb/d, following an upward revision of 0.16 mb/d to average 57.74 mb/d. An improving outlook forCanadian oil sands and US supply were the main contributors to the revision. OPEC NGLs production in 2017was revised down by 20 tb/d to now show growth of 0.13 mb/d. In February, OPEC production decreased by0.14 mb/d, according to secondary sources, to average 31.96 mb/d. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

Product markets exhibited a mixed performance in the Atlantic Basin. Higher export opportunities for gasoline andstrong middle distillates demand supported the European market, while margins fell in the US due to theweakening seen at the top and bottom of the barrels. Meanwhile, refinery margins in Asia continued to be healthyahead of the spring refinery maintenance season, despite a slight fall due to some bearish signals in the gasolinemarket.

 Tanker Market 

Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined in February, with rates falling for all vessels on all reported routes. Lowerfreight rates were registered on the back of limited activity, the Chinese New Year holidays in the East and fleetexpansions. VLCC, Suezmax and Aframax rates declined 21% on average from a month before. 

Stock Movements 

OECD commercial oil stocks rose in January to stand at 3,006 mb. At this level, OECD commercial oil stockswere 278 mb above the five-year average. Crude and products showed a surplus of around 209 mb and 69 mbabove the seasonal norm respectively. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at63.8 days, some 4.9 days higher than the five-year average.

 Balance of Supply and Demand 

Demand for OPEC crude in 2016 stands at 31.6 mb/d, some 1.9 mb/d higher than in the previous year. For 2017,demand for OPEC crude is projected at 32.4 mb/d, around 0.7 mb/d higher than in the current year.