石油市場(chǎng)亮點(diǎn)

原油價(jià)格變動(dòng)6月份，歐佩克一籃子參考原油價(jià)格上漲2.63美元，至平均45.84美元/桶。ICE布倫特指數(shù)上漲2.28美元至49.93美元/桶，紐約商品交易所WTI指數(shù)上漲2.06美元至48.85美元/桶。投機(jī)者本月進(jìn)一步削減了所有市場(chǎng)的凈多頭頭寸。6月份，洲際布倫特原油期貨價(jià)格從上月的85美元/桶上漲至1.07美元/桶。

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)

考慮到英國(guó)退出歐盟可能帶來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響，今年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率從3.1%下調(diào)至3.0%。據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)，2017年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率為3.1%。經(jīng)合組織的增長(zhǎng)率從2016年的1.9%降至1.8%，2017年的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)為1.7%。2016年對(duì)主要新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的預(yù)測(cè)大體保持不變。中國(guó)和印度今年的增長(zhǎng)率分別為6.5%和7.5%，預(yù)計(jì)2017年增長(zhǎng)率將略微放緩至6.1%和7.2%。據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)，巴西和俄羅斯將從兩年的衰退中復(fù)蘇，并在2017年分別增長(zhǎng)0.4%和0.7%。

世界石油需求

2016年世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)計(jì)約為120萬(wàn)桶/日，與上一份報(bào)告的平均值9420萬(wàn)桶/日基本持平。2017年世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)的初步預(yù)測(cè)為120萬(wàn)桶/日，平均值9530萬(wàn)桶/日。預(yù)計(jì)大部分增長(zhǎng)將來(lái)自非經(jīng)合組織，預(yù)計(jì)將貢獻(xiàn)110萬(wàn)桶/日，盡管oecd的需求將保持在10萬(wàn)桶/天的正區(qū)域。

世界石油供應(yīng)

預(yù)計(jì)2016年非歐佩克國(guó)家的石油供應(yīng)將出現(xiàn)90萬(wàn)桶/日的強(qiáng)勁收縮，自上次報(bào)告以來(lái)下降了10萬(wàn)桶/日，平均為560萬(wàn)桶/日。這主要是由于2006年第二季度加拿大和美國(guó)的野火導(dǎo)致石油產(chǎn)量下降。2017年度非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)量預(yù)計(jì)將下降0.1 Mb/d，平均為55.9 Mb/d。巴西和加拿大是明年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的主要驅(qū)動(dòng)力，而墨西哥、美國(guó)和挪威預(yù)計(jì)將出現(xiàn)下滑。預(yù)計(jì)2017年歐佩克天然氣產(chǎn)量將增長(zhǎng)15萬(wàn)桶/日。二級(jí)消息人士稱(chēng)，今年6月，歐佩克14國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量增加了264 tb/d，平均為3286 mb/d。

產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)和煉油業(yè)務(wù)

由于中間餾分油和燃料油流入減少，出口機(jī)會(huì)增加，緩解了大西洋盆地供過(guò)于求的環(huán)境。盡管汽油受到地區(qū)供過(guò)于求的影響，但這使得煉油廠的利潤(rùn)率略有提高。與此同時(shí)，亞洲煉油廠利潤(rùn)率下降，因?yàn)橛蛢r(jià)頂部的疲軟超過(guò)了強(qiáng)勁的地區(qū)汽油和燃料油需求，而這些需求受到發(fā)電需求的推動(dòng)。

油輪市場(chǎng)

臟油輪現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)在6月份平均下降。這主要是由于所有報(bào)告航線的超大型油輪運(yùn)價(jià)持續(xù)下降。蘇伊士型油輪現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)受到西非市場(chǎng)走強(qiáng)的支撐，因船舶供應(yīng)偶爾緊張。阿芙拉型油輪的運(yùn)價(jià)與前一個(gè)月持平，一些港口的活動(dòng)和維護(hù)工作受到限制。

股票變動(dòng)

經(jīng)合組織（OECD）5月份商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存下降至3063億桶。在這個(gè)水平上，oeccommercial石油庫(kù)存比五年平均水平高出約32900萬(wàn)桶，其中原油和成品油分別顯示盈余19900萬(wàn)桶和13000萬(wàn)桶。就前幾天的覆蓋率而言，經(jīng)合組織商業(yè)股為65.9天，比五年平均水平高出約6.7天。

供需平衡

預(yù)計(jì)2016年歐佩克原油需求平均為3190萬(wàn)桶/日，比上年增加190萬(wàn)桶/日。2017年，歐佩克原油需求預(yù)計(jì)為3300萬(wàn)桶/日，比今年增加110萬(wàn)桶/日。

Oil market highlights 

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket increased by $2.63 to average $45.84/b in June. ICE Brentended up $2.28 at $49.93/b and NYMEX WTI gained $2.06 to stand at $48.85/b.Speculators cut net long positions further this month in all markets. The ICE Brent-WTIspread widened to $1.07/b in June, up from 85/b in the previous month.

 World Economy 

World economic growth for this year was revised down to 3.0% from 3.1%, consideringpotential economic impacts from the UK’s vote to leave the EU. Global growth for 2017 isforecast at 3.1%. OECD growth has been reduced to 1.8% from 1.9% for 2016 and standsat 1.7% in 2017. The 2016 forecasts for the major emerging economies remain broadlyunchanged. China and India are seen expanding this year at 6.5% and 7.5%, respectively,and growth is forecast to slow slightly to 6.1% and 7.2% in 2017. Brazil and Russia areforecast to rebound from a two-year recession and grow by 0.4% and 0.7% in 2017. 

World Oil Demand

 World oil demand growth in 2016 is expected to be around 1.2 mb/d, broadly unchangedfrom the previous report to average 94.2 mb/d. The initial forecast for world oil demandgrowth in 2017 stands at 1.2 mb/d to average 95.3 mb/d. The bulk of growth is projected tooriginate in the non-OECD, which is expected to contribute 1.1 mb/d, although OECDdemand will remain in positive territory at 0.1 mb/d. 

World Oil Supply 

Non-OPEC oil supply in 2016 is forecast to show a stronger contraction of 0.9 mb/d,following a downward revision of 0.1 mb/d since the last report, to average 56.0 mb/d. Thisis mainly due to lower oil output from Canada in 2Q16 due to the wildfire, as well as fromthe US. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2017 is projected to decline by 0.1 mb/d to average55.9 mb/d. Brazil and Canada are the main drivers of growth next year while Mexico, theUS, and Norway are expected to see declines. OPEC NGLs are expected to grow by0.15 mb/d in 2017. In June, OPEC-14 crude production increased by 264 tb/d to average32.86 mb/d, according to secondary sources. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

Higher export opportunities amid lower inflows of middle distillates and fuel oil have easedthe oversupply environment in the Atlantic Basin. This has allowed refinery margins tostrengthen slightly, despite gasoline being impacted by regional oversupply. Meanwhile,refinery margins in Asia fell as the weakness seen at the top of the barrel outweighedstrong regional gasoil and fuel oil demand, which have been boosted by power generationrequirements.

 Tanker Market 

Dirty tanker spot freight rates declined on average in June. This was mainly on the back ofthe continued decline in VLCC rates on all reported routes. Suexmax spot freight rateswere supported by a strengthening market in West Africa on occasional tightness in vesselavailability. Aframax freight rates were flat from the month before, suffering from limitedactivity and maintenance work at some ports.

 Stock Movements

 OECD commercial oil stocks fell in May to stand at 3,063 mb. At this level, OECDcommercial oil stocks are around 329 mb above the five-year average, with crude andproducts indicating a surplus of 199 mb and 130 mb, respectively. In terms of days offorward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 65.9 days, some 6.7 days higher thanthe five-year average. 

Balance of Supply and Demand

 Demand for OPEC crude in 2016 is expected to average 31.9 mb/d, an increase of1.9 mb/d over the previous year. In 2017, the demand for OPEC crude is projected at33.0 mb/d, a gain of 1.1 mb/d over the current year.