繼工業(yè)生產(chǎn)增長率上升和德國之后，歐元區(qū)2006年國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）增長率的估計(jì)數(shù)也有所上調(diào)。預(yù)計(jì)2006年歐元區(qū)國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值將增長2.3%。美國的估計(jì)數(shù)不變，為3.4%。美國房地產(chǎn)業(yè)依然疲弱，但能源成本的下降如果持續(xù)下去，可能會(huì)支撐消費(fèi)支出。在日本，企業(yè)投資有望保持經(jīng)濟(jì)增長勢(shì)頭，因?yàn)檫^剩產(chǎn)能的減少和穩(wěn)固的利潤應(yīng)能支持企業(yè)現(xiàn)金流。國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的增長率可能達(dá)到2.8%，盡管一些不消費(fèi)的支出有所減弱。2006年中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率的估計(jì)值保持在10.2%不變，但印度的估計(jì)值已升至8.1%。印度繼續(xù)受益于所有行業(yè)的強(qiáng)勁增長：制造業(yè)、服務(wù)業(yè)和金融活動(dòng)?？偟膩碚f，2006年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)測(cè)仍保持在5%不變。歐元區(qū)的美好前景將延續(xù)到明年，2007年的GDP增長預(yù)期已增至1.6%。拉丁美洲和前蘇聯(lián)國家的增長預(yù)測(cè)也有所提高。對(duì)美國和日本的預(yù)測(cè)沒有變化。據(jù)預(yù)測(cè)，2007年美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率將降至2.6%，而日本可能只會(huì)達(dá)到1.9%。預(yù)計(jì)2007年發(fā)展中國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率也將下降，降至5.5%，中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率也可能小幅降至9%。預(yù)計(jì)明年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)將增長4.4%。過去幾個(gè)月石油價(jià)格的急劇下降很快就會(huì)對(duì)總體通脹率產(chǎn)生明顯影響。即使油價(jià)持續(xù)走低，預(yù)計(jì)油價(jià)走低的經(jīng)濟(jì)效應(yīng)也不會(huì)很大，主要金融中心的貨幣政策將受到限制，以使家庭和企業(yè)的支出符合生產(chǎn)潛力。這將降低對(duì)稀缺資源的需求壓力，并最終降低通脹核心率。只要消費(fèi)者實(shí)際收入受益于油價(jià)下跌帶來的購買力上升，這可能要求各國央行延長緊縮過程的持續(xù)時(shí)間，但目前的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率不會(huì)顯著提高。在歐佩克穩(wěn)定供應(yīng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩預(yù)期下，中東緊張局勢(shì)緩解，導(dǎo)致9月份油價(jià)大幅下跌。亞洲煉油廠開工率下降，需求增長放緩，供應(yīng)充足，這對(duì)該石油公司造成了下行壓力，因?yàn)樵摴径救剂蟽?chǔ)備充足。石油輸出國組織（OPEC）一籃子參考原油的月平均價(jià)格下跌近10美元/桶，至59.34美元/桶，跌幅達(dá)14%。10月的頭幾周，該籃子原油價(jià)格繼續(xù)下挫，至10月13日達(dá)到54.90美元/桶。隨著駕駛季節(jié)的結(jié)束和穩(wěn)定的餾出油庫存，產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)情緒發(fā)生了重大變化，對(duì)全球的產(chǎn)品價(jià)格和煉油廠利潤率施加了下行壓力。肩季煉油廠利潤率適度下調(diào)并非超出市場(chǎng)預(yù)期，但在未來幾個(gè)月內(nèi)，由于秋季保養(yǎng)時(shí)間較短，加上蒸餾油和天然氣庫存較高，可能對(duì)成品油和原油價(jià)格構(gòu)成威脅。然而，天氣狀況仍然是一個(gè)關(guān)鍵的外卡，因?yàn)楸日６靖涞奈黠L(fēng)圈可能會(huì)改變產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)目前的看跌情緒。受產(chǎn)量下降和需求放緩的推動(dòng)，亞洲歐佩克現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量連續(xù)第三個(gè)月下降，9月份平均為1230萬桶/日，較上月下降50萬桶/日。歐佩克的出海量增加了近100萬桶/日，至近2390萬桶/日，但仍低于2005年同期的50萬桶/日。原油油輪市場(chǎng)情況喜憂參半，盡管有下降趨勢(shì)，超大型油輪的運(yùn)價(jià)仍保持強(qiáng)勁，而蘇伊士型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪的運(yùn)價(jià)在大多數(shù)航線上都有所下降。在成品油輪市場(chǎng)，尤其是蘇伊士以西的油輪市場(chǎng)，這種疲軟更為明顯。10月初，原油和成品油油輪市場(chǎng)均出現(xiàn)顯著下跌。據(jù)估計(jì)，2006年世界石油需求將增長100萬桶/日或1.2%，達(dá)到平均8420萬桶/日。根據(jù)2006年前三個(gè)季度的初步數(shù)據(jù)，2006年世界石油需求增長比上一個(gè)月同期下降了10萬桶/日，較高的油價(jià)和相對(duì)較低的天然氣價(jià)格主要影響了oecd國家的石油需求。美國9月份強(qiáng)勁的石油需求增長不足以抵消夏季前兩個(gè)月的下降。因此，經(jīng)合組織第三季度的石油需求同比減少了30萬桶/日，第四季度有所回升。中東和中國經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)勁增長，第三季度石油需求同比增長，2007年世界石油需求增長預(yù)測(cè)保持不變，為130萬桶/日或1.5%。中國和中東將分別以42萬桶/日和30萬桶/日的速度引領(lǐng)世界石油需求增長。2006年，非歐佩克國家的石油平均供應(yīng)量預(yù)計(jì)為5130萬桶/日，比2005年增加110萬桶/日，與上次評(píng)估相比有所上升。已經(jīng)進(jìn)行了一系列調(diào)整，包括經(jīng)合組織國家生物柴油歷史數(shù)據(jù)的增加，以及一些國家（主要是美國和澳大利亞）對(duì)傳統(tǒng)石油項(xiàng)目時(shí)間表的修訂。8月和九月的初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，非歐佩克國家的石油供應(yīng)總量約為51 mb/d和51.7 mb/d，同比分別增長0.9 mb/d和2.8 mb/d。目前，非歐佩克國家計(jì)劃外停產(chǎn)的預(yù)期已從上半年的平均60 mb/d降至不足0.1 mb/d。2007年，非歐佩克國家的石油平均供應(yīng)量預(yù)計(jì)為5300萬桶/日，比2006年增加180萬桶/日。石油輸出國組織9月份的平均產(chǎn)量為2970萬桶/日，比上月下降了10萬桶/日。經(jīng)合組織的初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，經(jīng)合組織石油凈進(jìn)口總額繼續(xù)保持上升趨勢(shì)，截至今年9月，達(dá)到2790萬桶/日，比上個(gè)月增加了112000萬桶/日，比2005年相應(yīng)月份增加了近100萬桶/日。美國石油凈進(jìn)口量小幅下降至1290萬桶/日，但同比增長76萬桶/日，受強(qiáng)勁庫存推動(dòng)。同樣，日本的石油凈進(jìn)口在反彈至430萬桶/日后，較上年同期大幅增長11%。中國的原油進(jìn)口扭轉(zhuǎn)了下降趨勢(shì)，猛增約28萬桶/日，至280萬桶/日，這意味著石油凈進(jìn)口量為330萬桶/日，同比增長38%，而印度石油凈進(jìn)口量繼續(xù)徘徊在200萬桶/日左右，同比增長3.5%。美國9月份商業(yè)石油庫存總量為2200萬桶至108870萬桶，比去年同期和5年平均水平分別增長7.6%和10.0%。庫存的增加完全來自于原油月度下降的產(chǎn)品。盡管油價(jià)下跌，但原油庫存仍保持在較去年同期和5年平均水平高出7.1%和14.0%的舒適水平。轉(zhuǎn)為16歐元（歐盟15國加挪威），商業(yè)石油庫存總量下滑640萬歐元，但仍高于5年平均水平6.4%，這完全是由于原油庫存和中間餾分油庫存進(jìn)一步減少。據(jù)報(bào)道，8月份日本商業(yè)庫存總量比上月增長6.1%，比上年同期和5年平均水平高出4%以上，這主要是由于產(chǎn)品庫存增加。預(yù)計(jì)2006年歐佩克原油需求平均為2870萬桶/日，上個(gè)月下調(diào)了20萬桶/日。2007年，對(duì)歐佩克原油的需求預(yù)計(jì)平均為2810萬桶/日，與2006年相比下降了60萬桶/日。根據(jù)季度預(yù)測(cè)，2006年第4季度歐佩克原油需求預(yù)計(jì)為2870萬桶/日，2007年第1季度為2920萬桶/日，2007年第2季度為2700萬桶/日。

Estimates of Euro-zone GDP growth for 2006 have been revised up following higher industrial production growth inFrance and Germany. The GDP of the Euro-zone is forecast to grow by 2.3% in 2006. The estimate for the USA isunchanged at 3.4%. The US housing sector remains weak but lower energy costs, if sustained, may support consumerspending. In Japan, business investment is expected to maintain the momentum of the economy as a reduction in excesscapacity and solid profits should support corporate cash flows. GDP growth may reach 2.8% despite some weakening inconsumer spending. The estimate for Chinese growth in 2006 is unchanged at 10.2% but the estimate for India has beenraised to 8.1%. India continues to benefit from strong growth in all sectors: manufacturing, services and financialactivities. Overall, the 2006 forecast for world growth remains unchanged at 5%. The better outlook for the Euro-zone extends into next year and the forecast for GDP growth in 2007 has been increased to1.6%. The growth forecasts for Latin America and the countries of the Former Soviet Union have also been raised. Therehas been no change to the forecasts for the United States or Japan. US economic growth is forecast to fall to 2.6% in 2007and Japan may only achieve 1.9%. Growth in developing countries is also expected to be lower in 2007, falling to 5.5% andChina may also see a modest deceleration to 9%. The world economy is forecast to grow by 4.4% next year. The sharp decline in the oil prices over the past months should soon have a noticeable impact on headline rates ofinflation. The economic effect of lower oil prices is not expected to be large, even if lower prices are sustained.Monetary policy is set to be restrictive in the major financial centres in order to bring household and business spendinginto line with productive potential. This will lower demand pressures on scarce resources and, eventually, reduce corerates of inflation. In so far as consumer real incomes benefit from the higher purchasing power created by lower oilprices, this may require the central banks to extend the duration of the tightening process but ongoing rates of economicgrowth will not be significantly higher. Easing tensions in the Mideast amid steady OPEC supply and expectations of slower economic growth caused a sharpdrop in prices September. Ample supply amid lower refinery rates in Asia halting demand growth exerted downwardpressure on the petroleum complex amid a healthy winter fuel stockpile. The monthly average of the OPEC ReferenceBasket fell nearly $10/b or 14% to average $59.34/b. In the first weeks of October, the Basket continued to drift downreaching $54.90/b on 13 October. With the end of the driving season and steady distillate stock-builds, product market sentiment changed significantly,exerting downward pressure on product prices and refinery margins across the globe. A moderate downward correctionin refinery margins during the shoulder season is not outside market expectation, but the combination of a light autumnmaintenance schedule with high distillate and natural gas stocks could be a threat to product and crude prices over thenext few months. However, weather conditions remain a key wild card as colder-than-normal winter in the WesternHemishphere may turn the product market’s current bearish sentiment. Asia OPEC spot fixtures continued to decline for the third consecutive month, averaging 12.3 mb/d in September, a dropof 0.5 mb/d from the previous month, driven by the decline in production and the slow-down in demand. Sailings fromOPEC increased almost 1.0 mb/d to nearly 23.9 mb/d but remain 0.5 mb/d below the corresponding month of 2005. Thecrude tanker market showed a mixed picture with freight rates for VLCCs remaining strong despite a downward trend,while Suezmax and Aframax saw rates deteriorate on most routes. The weakness was more pronounced in the producttanker market, especially for tankers trading in West of Suez. Both crude and product tanker markets witnessedsignificant declines in early October. World oil demand in 2006 is estimated to grow by 1.0 mb/d or 1.2% to average 84.2 mb/d. In light of preliminary data forthe first three quarters of 2006, world oil demand growth was revised down by 0.1 mb/d for 2006 from the last MOMR.Warm weather, higher oil prices and the relatively-lower natural gas prices affected oil demand mostly in the OECDcountries. Robust US oil demand growth in September was not sufficient to offset the decline seen in the first two monthsof summer. Hence, OECD oil demand growth in the third quarter was revised down by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y, with a recovery inthe fourth quarter. Strong economic growth in both the Middle East and China increased y-o-y third quarter oil demand.World oil demand growth forecast for the year 2007 remains unchanged at a moderate rate of 1.3 mb/d or 1.5%. China andthe Middle East will lead the world oil demand growth with 0.42 mb/d and 0.30 mb/d respectively. Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to average 51.3 mb/d in 2006, representing an increase of 1.1 mb/d over 2005 and aslight upward revision versus the last assessment. A series of adjustments have been made including the addition ofhistorical data for biodiesel in OECD countries as well as revisions to conventional oil project schedules in a number ofcountries, but primarily in the USA and Australia. Preliminary data for the month of August and September puts totalnon-OPEC supply at around 51 mb/d and 51.7 mb/d, representing a y-o-y growth of 0.9 mb/d and 2.8 mb/d respectively.Expectations for unplanned shutdowns in non-OPEC have now been reduced to less than 0.1 mb/d from an average of0.6 mb/d in the first half of the year. In 2007, non-OPEC oil supply is expected to average 53 mb/d, representing anincrease of 1.8 mb/d versus 2006. The main contributions are expected to come from FSU, Africa and North America.In September, OPEC production averaged 29.7 mb/d, a drop of 0.1 mb/d from the previous month. OECD Preliminary data shows that OECD total net oil imports continued their upward trend to reach 27.9 mb/d inSeptember, an increase of 112,000 mb/d over the previous month and almost 1.0 mb/d higher than the correspondingmonth of 2005. US net oil imports inched down slightly to 12.9 mb/d, but displayed y-o-y growth of 760,000 b/d, drivenby strong stock-builds. Similarly, Japan’s net oil imports showed a significant growth of 11% from a year earlier afterrebounding to 4.3 mb/d. China’s crude oil imports reversed the downward trend and surged by around 280,000 b/d inAugust to 2.8 mb/d, implying net oil imports of 3.3 mb/d which corresponds to 38% y-o-y growth while India’s net oilimports continued to hover around 2.0 mb/d, an increase of 3.5% from a year earlier. Total commercial oil inventories in the USA witnessed a build of 22.0 mb to 1,088.7 mb in September, an increase of7.6% and 10.0% above the year-ago level and the five-year average. The stock-build came entirely from products ascrude oil declined on a monthly basis. Despite the draw, crude oil stocks remained at comfortable levels of 7.1% and14.0% above the same month last year and the five-year average. Moving to Eur-16 (Eu-15 plus Norway), totalcommercial oil stocks slipped by 6.4 mb but were still 6.4% above the five-year average, which was entirely due to afurther reduction in crude oil inventories as well as middle distillate stocks. Japan’s total commercial inventoriesreported an increase of 6.1 % in August compared to the previous month, more than 4% above the year-ago level andthe five-year average, mainly as a result of the rise in product stocks. The demand for OPEC crude in 2006 is expected to average 28.7 mb/d, representing a downward revision of 0.2 mb/dversus last month. In 2007, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 28.1 mb/d, representing a decline of0.6 mb/d versus 2006. On a quarterly basis, the forecast shows that demand for OPEC crude is expected at 28.7 mb/d in4Q06, 29.2 mb/d in 1Q07 and 27 mb/d in 2Q07.