由于經(jīng)濟(jì)前景疲弱削弱了需求，8月份歐佩克參考籃子有所回落。較高的出口額平息了市場(chǎng)情緒，而中國(guó)較低的進(jìn)口額引發(fā)了對(duì)需求增長(zhǎng)的擔(dān)憂。不過(guò)，高加索地區(qū)的地緣政治沖突對(duì)市場(chǎng)造成了一些看漲情緒。8月份，該籃子價(jià)格下跌18.81美元/桶，跌幅超過(guò)14%，較7月份創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的水平大幅下滑。9月的第一周，隨著美元回升至一年高點(diǎn)，經(jīng)濟(jì)前景惡化，加之古斯塔夫颶風(fēng)造成的損失微乎其微，籃子繼續(xù)回落。熱帶風(fēng)暴Ike的來(lái)臨推遲了前一次風(fēng)暴的恢復(fù)。由于雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）破產(chǎn)的影響，該公司股價(jià)繼續(xù)下跌，至本月中旬達(dá)到91.35美元/桶。據(jù)估計(jì)，今年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率為3.9%，與上月持平，而2009年的預(yù)測(cè)則下降了0.1%，為3.7%，這是由于經(jīng)合組織和發(fā)展中國(guó)家對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩向其他地區(qū)蔓延的影響進(jìn)行了修正。由于第四大投行雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)以及美國(guó)和全球金融體系可能出現(xiàn)的后果，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)面臨的金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不斷加大，該預(yù)測(cè)可能會(huì)被下調(diào)。美國(guó)政府早些時(shí)候還接管了陷入困境的抵押貸款巨頭房利美（Fannie Mae）和房地美（Freddie Mac）的控制權(quán)，房利美和房地美的垮臺(tái)可能帶來(lái)了系統(tǒng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。與次貸相關(guān)的金融損失和減記已升至5100多億美元。在經(jīng)合組織（OECD）內(nèi)部，2008年和2009年歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率分別下調(diào)0.1pp至1.3%和1.0%，日本經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率分別下調(diào)至0.8%（下調(diào)0.2%）和1.0%（下調(diào)0.1%）。這兩個(gè)地區(qū)出現(xiàn)技術(shù)衰退的可能性不容忽視。2008年美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率為1.8%（增長(zhǎng)0.2%），2009年為1.4%（增長(zhǎng)0.1%），目前預(yù)計(jì)將超過(guò)日本和歐元區(qū)的增長(zhǎng)率。這一前景為美元兌歐元升至一年高點(diǎn)提供了進(jìn)一步支撐，但在雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）遭遇最嚴(yán)重困境后，美元放棄了其中一些收益。今年發(fā)展中國(guó)家的增長(zhǎng)率保持在5.8%不變，2009年下降了0.1%至5.5%，原因是拉丁美洲、非洲和亞洲的增長(zhǎng)率有所下降。由于美國(guó)石油需求急劇下降，經(jīng)合組織8月份石油需求進(jìn)一步下降。由于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)緩慢和零售價(jià)格高企，8月份同比下降了80萬(wàn)桶。相比之下，非經(jīng)合組織國(guó)家（主要是中國(guó)、中東和亞洲）夏季石油需求增長(zhǎng)4%，抵消了經(jīng)合組織石油需求的下降。然而，隨著最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示北美石油需求意外強(qiáng)勁下降，世界總需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)已下調(diào)0.10百萬(wàn)桶/日。因此，2008年世界石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)0.9百萬(wàn)桶/日至平均8680百萬(wàn)桶/日。2009年，世界石油需求預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)0.9百萬(wàn)桶/日至平均8770百萬(wàn)桶/日，與上次報(bào)告保持不變。非經(jīng)合組織國(guó)家的石油需求增長(zhǎng)120萬(wàn)桶/日，將占到未來(lái)世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)的全部。2009年，交通部門(mén)將迎來(lái)最大的石油需求增長(zhǎng)。影響nextyear石油需求增長(zhǎng)的因素之一是取消發(fā)展中國(guó)家的價(jià)格補(bǔ)貼。預(yù)計(jì)2008年非歐佩克國(guó)家的石油平均供應(yīng)量為4990萬(wàn)桶/日，比上一年增加510桶/日，表明較上一次評(píng)估下降了70桶/日。由于最近颶風(fēng)的全部影響仍在評(píng)估中，美國(guó)的估計(jì)可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步修改。8月份的初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，全球供應(yīng)量約為8630萬(wàn)桶/日，同比增長(zhǎng)約3%。2009年，非歐佩克國(guó)家的石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)平均為5081萬(wàn)桶/日，比上一年增加880噸/日。歐佩克的天然氣和非常規(guī)油氣預(yù)計(jì)在2008年達(dá)到490萬(wàn)桶/日，2009年達(dá)到550萬(wàn)桶/日。8月份，歐佩克的產(chǎn)量為3250萬(wàn)桶/日，與上月基本持平。美國(guó)墨西哥灣沿岸煉油廠的預(yù)防性關(guān)閉，加上汽油庫(kù)存的持續(xù)增加，過(guò)去幾周大西洋盆地的產(chǎn)品價(jià)格和煉油利潤(rùn)率都有所上升。最近原油價(jià)格的大幅下跌也促成了煉油經(jīng)濟(jì)的積極發(fā)展。目前成品油市場(chǎng)的看漲情緒可能在未來(lái)幾周繼續(xù)，并為成品油和原油價(jià)格提供支撐。然而，現(xiàn)在斷言產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)在未來(lái)幾個(gè)月內(nèi)能夠克服整體看跌趨勢(shì)并占據(jù)市場(chǎng)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)地位還為時(shí)過(guò)早。8月份，歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量較上月增長(zhǎng)6%，平均接近1300萬(wàn)桶/日，中東以外地區(qū)的增長(zhǎng)為支撐。石油輸出國(guó)組織（OPEC）的平均出海量穩(wěn)定在2330萬(wàn)桶/日。由于美國(guó)原油進(jìn)口量下降，上個(gè)月抵達(dá)美國(guó)的人數(shù)下降。8月份，原油油輪的即期運(yùn)價(jià)大幅下降34%，主要原因是超大型油輪和蘇伊士型油輪市場(chǎng)非常疲軟。由于蘇伊士東部市場(chǎng)強(qiáng)勁，8月份成品油輪運(yùn)價(jià)穩(wěn)定，小幅上漲1%。8月份，美國(guó)商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存下降500萬(wàn)桶，至約9.83億桶，保持赤字，5年平均值為2800萬(wàn)桶或3%。抽簽結(jié)果是原油增加450萬(wàn)桶，產(chǎn)品庫(kù)存減少960萬(wàn)桶。不過(guò)，由于需求減弱，從遠(yuǎn)期覆蓋率來(lái)看，股市仍較為寬裕。由于颶風(fēng)造成的預(yù)期中斷，汽油庫(kù)存減少了1500萬(wàn)桶，主要原因是進(jìn)口減少。歐盟15國(guó)（EU-15plusnorway）的石油庫(kù)存總量下降了1100萬(wàn)桶，今年以來(lái)首次低于5年平均水平。日本商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存7月份大幅回升，自去年11月以來(lái)首次突破1.8億桶。初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示8月份進(jìn)一步增加。預(yù)計(jì)2008年歐佩克原油需求量平均為3200萬(wàn)桶/日，比上年下降160噸/日。2009年，對(duì)歐佩克原油的平均需求預(yù)計(jì)為3130萬(wàn)桶/日，下降670噸/日。

The OPEC Reference Basket eased in August as the weaker economy outlook was seen denting demand. Higher OPECexports calmed market sentiment while China’s lower imports triggered concern over demand growth. However,geopolitical conflicts in the Caucasus contributed some bullish sentiment to the market. The Basket fell $18.81/b or morethan 14% in August, declining sharply from the record levels reached in July. In the first week of September, the Basketcontinued to retreat amid the recovery of the US dollar to a one-year high, the worsening economic prospects and minimaldamages by Hurricane Gustav. The approach of Tropical Storm Ike delayed recovery from the previous storm. The Basketcontinued to fall, pressured further by the fallout from the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, reaching $91.35/b by mid-month. The world economy is estimated to grow at 3.9% this year, unchanged from last month, while the forecast for 2009 is0.1% lower at 3.7%, due to revisions for both OECD and Developing Countries as spillovers from the US slowdownspread to other regions. The forecast may be subject to downside revision due to the mounting financial risks to growth aswitnessed by the bankruptcy filing by Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank and its possible consequencesfor the US and global fiancial system. The US government had earlier also taken over control of the troubled mortgagegiants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, whose downfall may have posed a systemic risk. Subprime related financial lossesand writedowns have risen to over $510 bn. Within the OECD, Euro-zone growth was revised down 0.1pp in both 2008and 2009 to 1.3% and 1.0%, and Japanese growth was trimmed to 0.8% (down 0.2%) and 1.0% (down 0.1%). Thepossibility of a technical recession in both regions cannot be dismissed. US growth at 1.8% (up 0.2%) in 2008 and 1.4%(up 0.1%) in 2009 is now expected to exceed Japanese and Euro-zone growth. This prospect has lent further support to theUS dollar which rose to a one-year high versus the euro, but the US currency gave away some of these gains following thelatest plight at Lehman Brothers. Developing Countries’ growth is unchanged this year at 5.8%, and is 0.1% down to 5.5%in 2009, due to downward revisions for Latin America, Africa, and to a lesser extent Asia. OECD oil demand showed a further decline in August due to a steep fall in the US oil demand. This declined by 0.8 mb/dy-o-y in August resulting from slow economy and high retail prices. In contrast, summer oil demand growth of 4% in nonOECDcountries, mainly China, Middle East and Asia, offset the decline in OECD oil demand. However, with the mostrecent data showing an unexpectedly strong decline in oil demand in North America, the total world demand growthforecast has been revised down by 0.1 mb/d. Thus, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 0.9 mb/d in 2008 to average86.8 mb/d. For 2009, world oil demand is forecast to grow by 0.9 mb/d to average 87.7 mb/d, unchanged from the lastreport. Non-OECD countries’ oil demand growth of 1.2 mb/d will account for all of the world oil demand growth nextyear. The transport sector will see the largest oil demand growth in 2009. One of the factors that might take a toll on nextyear’s oil demand growth is the removal of price subsidies in Developing Countries. Non-OPEC oil supply in 2008 is expected to average 49.9 mb/d, representing an increase of 510 tb/d over the previousyear, indicating a downward revision of 70 tb/d from the last assessment. The estimate for the USA may be subject tofurther revisions as the full impact of the recent hurricanes is still being assessed. Preliminary data for the month of Augustput global supply at around 86.3 mb/d, representing growth of around 3% y-o-y. In 2009, non-OPEC oil supply isexpected to average 50.81 mb/d, representing an increase of 880 tb/d over the previous year. OPEC NGLs and nonconventionalsare expected to reach 4.9 mb/d in 2008 and 5.5 mb/d in 2009. In August, OPEC production stood at32.5 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous month. Precautionary refinery shutdowns in the US Gulf Coast combined with the continuation of gasoline stock-draws boostedproduct prices and refining margins in the Atlantic Basin over the last few weeks. The recent sharp fall of crude prices alsocontributed to positive developments in refining economics. The current bullish sentiment in product markets maycontinue in the next few weeks and provide support for both product and crude oil prices. However, it is still too soon tosay that product markets would be able to overcome the overall bearish trends and assume market leadership in thecoming months. OPEC spot fixtures increased by 6% in August from the previous month to average close to 13 mb/d, supported byincreases outside the Middle East. OPEC sailings were steady averaging 23.3 mb/d. Arrivals in the US declined last monthin line with lower US crude imports. Spot freight rates for crude oil tankers declined sharply by 34% in August mainly dueto the very weak VLCC and Suezmax markets. Product tanker freight rates were steady in August with a marginal 1%increase due to the strong East of Suez market. US commercial oil stocks dropped 5 mb in August to stand at around 983 mb, keeping the deficit with the five-yearaverage at 28 mb or 3%. The draw was the result of an increase of 4.5 mb in crude oil and a drop of 9.6 mb in productstocks. However, due to weaker demand, stocks remained comfortable in terms of forward cover. Gasoline stocks lost asubstantial 15 mb on the back of lower imports, triggered by anticipated disruptions due to hurricanes. In EU-15 plusNorway, total oil inventories fell 11 mb and moved below the five-year average for the first time so far this year. Japan’scommercial oil stocks recovered sharply in July to move above 180 mb for the first time since last November. Preliminarydata show a further increase in August. The demand for OPEC crude in 2008 is expected to average 32.0 mb/d, a decline of 160 tb/d from the previous year. In2009, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 31.3 mb/d, a decline of 670 tb/d.