原油價(jià)格繼續(xù)看跌，預(yù)計(jì)疲弱的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景將削弱石油需求增長。美元走強(qiáng)加劇了下跌勢(shì)頭。金融市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩加劇了主導(dǎo)全球市場(chǎng)的悲觀情緒。按月度計(jì)算，9月份該籃子價(jià)格下跌15.56美元/桶，跌幅近14%，跌至96.85美元/桶的8個(gè)月低點(diǎn)。10月份，隨著金融業(yè)危機(jī)的不斷演變，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)前景日益黯淡，需求增長也隨之放緩，該籃子價(jià)格繼續(xù)大幅走低。10月13日，該籃子價(jià)格跌至72美元/桶的12個(gè)月低點(diǎn)，在不到3個(gè)月的時(shí)間里下跌了近69美元/桶。據(jù)估計(jì)，今年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)將增長3.8%，比上個(gè)月的估計(jì)低0.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。由于金融危機(jī)對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響，2009年的預(yù)測(cè)值整體下調(diào)，下調(diào)了0.4pp至3.3%。最近幾天，歐盟成員國宣布的總額約為1.9萬億歐元的巨額救助計(jì)劃，強(qiáng)化了已經(jīng)達(dá)成的7000億美元救助計(jì)劃的效果。宣布的救援計(jì)劃的綜合影響似乎終于成功地阻止了股市的螺旋式下跌，但一旦各國計(jì)劃的細(xì)節(jié)變得更加清晰，實(shí)施進(jìn)程開始，這種積極的反應(yīng)是否會(huì)持續(xù)下去，還有待觀察。時(shí)間是至關(guān)重要的，因?yàn)榻?jīng)濟(jì)衰退中已經(jīng)疲軟的經(jīng)濟(jì)體預(yù)計(jì)將面臨衰退，只要銀行業(yè)能夠在不久的將來恢復(fù)正常運(yùn)作，衰退的深度和持續(xù)時(shí)間可能會(huì)得到控制。在經(jīng)合組織（OECD）內(nèi)部，美國2009年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)期下降0.7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)至0.6%，歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)期下降0.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)至0.6%，日本經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)期下降至0.3%，較上月下降0.7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。發(fā)展中國家和中國明年的增長預(yù)期也下降了0.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，目前分別為5.3%和9.0%。2008年，美國石油消費(fèi)下降繼續(xù)使經(jīng)合組織石油需求減少1.8%以上。經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩、高零售價(jià)格和颶風(fēng)等影響世界石油需求的因素導(dǎo)致經(jīng)合組織總消費(fèi)量下降超過100萬桶/日。9月份非經(jīng)合組織石油需求同比增長120萬桶。其中大部分是由于西安和中東的石油需求。2008年世界石油總需求增長率已降至最初預(yù)測(cè)的一半，目前為60萬桶/日。2009年，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)期下降將繼續(xù)影響石油需求。因此，美國的石油需求至少在今年上半年將低于最初的預(yù)期。對(duì)其他經(jīng)濟(jì)體的利好將在一定程度上影響其他地區(qū)的石油需求。因此，明年世界石油需求增長率下調(diào)了10萬桶/日，顯示出80萬桶/日的增長。預(yù)計(jì)經(jīng)合組織明年的石油需求將縮減40萬桶/日；然而，非經(jīng)合組織國家的石油需求增長率預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到110萬桶/日，其中大部分增長來自中國、中東和印度。2008年，非歐佩克成員國的供應(yīng)增長率較上年下調(diào)至30萬桶/日。為了適應(yīng)颶風(fēng)對(duì)美國產(chǎn)量的影響、阿加斯漏油事件后阿塞拜疆石油產(chǎn)量減少以及其他因素，我們進(jìn)行了調(diào)整。2009年，非歐佩克國家的供應(yīng)增長經(jīng)歷了一次向上修正，達(dá)到約100萬桶/天。這主要是由于對(duì)本年度的修正。歐佩克的天然氣和非常規(guī)石油目前在2008年為470萬桶/日，2009年為540萬桶/日。9月份，由于伊拉克、沙特阿拉伯和安哥拉的原油產(chǎn)量大幅下降，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量平均為3220萬桶/日，較上月約為309噸/日。古斯塔夫颶風(fēng)和艾克颶風(fēng)過后，產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)情緒暫時(shí)好轉(zhuǎn)，物理和期貨市場(chǎng)的產(chǎn)品價(jià)格都有所上漲。這些產(chǎn)品價(jià)格的發(fā)展以及由于金融市場(chǎng)進(jìn)一步惡化而導(dǎo)致的原油價(jià)格下跌，也提升了全球煉油業(yè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益。不過，由于美國墨西哥灣沿岸煉油廠在過去兩周已恢復(fù)正常運(yùn)營，產(chǎn)品短缺的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已明顯緩解，預(yù)計(jì)近期產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)的看漲態(tài)勢(shì)不會(huì)持續(xù)。不過，隨著冬季的臨近，成品油供應(yīng)緊張的局面可能會(huì)對(duì)原油價(jià)格提供一定的支撐，但這可能不足以蓋過市場(chǎng)上其他看跌因素的影響。9月份，歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量平均為1230萬桶/日，較上月下降了3%，中東以外的歐佩克的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量也得到了支持。歐佩克的出海量保持穩(wěn)定，平均為2330萬桶/日。上個(gè)月，隨著原油進(jìn)口量急劇下降140萬桶/日，以美元計(jì)價(jià)的出海量下降。原油油輪的現(xiàn)貨運(yùn)價(jià)從上個(gè)月疲軟的運(yùn)價(jià)中大幅回升，主要原因是颶風(fēng)活動(dòng)頻繁和中東市場(chǎng)強(qiáng)勁。隨著蘇伊士西部市場(chǎng)更加活躍，9月份成品油輪運(yùn)價(jià)上漲。今年9月，古斯塔夫和艾克颶風(fēng)將美國商業(yè)石油庫存首次推至5年期區(qū)間的底部。庫存減少2400萬桶，達(dá)到960萬桶，其中受颶風(fēng)影響最大的煉油廠貢獻(xiàn)了2300萬桶。原油庫存約為5年平均3億桶。然而，在截至10月3日的一周內(nèi)，由于港口基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施復(fù)蘇后進(jìn)口增加，美國庫存總量大幅上升。盡管9月份有所下降，但由于需求減弱，庫存在遠(yuǎn)期保障天數(shù)方面仍保持良好。加上挪威，InEU-15的石油庫存總量下降了450萬桶，達(dá)到五年平均水平。原油儲(chǔ)量超過500萬桶后仍保持穩(wěn)定。8月份，日本商業(yè)石油庫存，特別是成品油庫存繼續(xù)保持上升趨勢(shì)，據(jù)初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，9月末日本商業(yè)石油庫存總量自2007年1月以來首次突破2億桶。預(yù)計(jì)2008年歐佩克原油需求平均為3200萬桶/日，比上年下降260噸/日。2009年，對(duì)歐佩克原油的平均需求預(yù)計(jì)為3110萬桶/日，下降870噸/日。

Crude oil prices continued their bearish trend with the weak economic outlook foreseen to dent oil demand growth. Thestrengthening of the US dollar added to the downward momentum. Financial market turmoil strengthened the gloomysentiment dominating the global market. In monthly terms, the Basket fell $15.56/b or nearly 14% in September to standat an eight-month low of $96.85/b. The Basket continued to trend sharply lower in October as the evolving crisis in thefinancial sector indicated an increasingly weaker outlook for the world economy and hence demand growth. The Basketreached a twelve-month low of $72/b on 13 October, representing a decline of almost $69/b in little more than three months. The world economy is now estimated to grow 3.8% this year, 0.1 percentage points (pp) below last month’s estimate. Theforecast for 2009 has been revised down 0.4pp to 3.3% due to downward revisions across the board, as the fallout from thefinancial crisis impacts the real economy. In recent days the huge rescue packages, amounting to an estimated pledge of€1.9 trillion, announced by EU members have reinforced the effect of the already agreed US $700 billion package. Thecombined impact of the declared rescue plans appear to have finally succeeded in halting the downward spiral in equitymarkets, but it remains to be seen if this positive response will last once the details of the individual countries’ plansbecome clearer and the implementation process begins. Time is of the essence since already weakening economies in theOECD are expected to face recession, the depth and duration of which may be contained provided the banking sector canbe brought to function normally again in the near future. Within the OECD, US growth forecast for 2009 was reduced by0.7pp to 0.6%, Euro-zone growth by 0.4pp to 0.6% and Japanese growth trimmed to 0.3%, a downward revision of 0.7ppfrom last month. Growth forecasts for Developing Countries and China are also 0.2pp down next year and now stand at5.3% and 9.0% respectively. Declining US oil consumption continued to reduce OECD oil demand by more than 1.8% in 2008. Factors affecting worldoil demand such as the slowing economy, high retail prices and hurricanes led to a decline of more than 1.0 mb/d in totalOECD consumption. Non-OECD oil demand growth increased 1.2 mb/d y-o-y in September. Most of this is attributed toAsian and Middle Eastern oil demand. Total world oil demand growth for 2008 has been reduced to half of the initialforecast to stand now at 0.6 mb/d. In 2009, reduced economic growth outlook is expected to continue impacting oildemand. Hence, oil demand in the USA will be lower than initially expected, at least in the first half of the year. The likelyspillover to other economies will affect oil demand elsewhere to some degree. As a result, world oil demand growth fornext year has been revised down by 0.1 mb/d to show a growth of 0.8 mb/d. OECD oil demand is expected to shrink by0.4 mb/d next year; however, non-OECD countries’ oil demand growth is estimated to reach 1.1 mb/d with most of thegrowth coming from China, the Middle East, and India. Non-OPEC supply growth in 2008 has been revised down to stand at 0.3 mb/d over the previous year. The adjustmentswere made to accommodate the impact of hurricanes on US production, reduced oil output from Azerbaijan following agas leak, and other factors. For 2009, non-OPEC supply growth experienced an upward revision to stand at around1.0 mb/d. This was mainly due to revisions made to the current year. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils now stand at4.7 mb/d in 2008 and 5.4 mb/d in 2009. In September, OPEC crude oil production averaged 32.2 mb/d, representing adrop of around 309 tb/d from the previous month, as production from Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Angola saw significantdeclines. Product market sentiment improved temporarily after hurricanes Gustav and Ike, lifting product prices in both the physicaland futures markets. These developments in product prices along with falling crude prices due to the further deteriorationof financial markets have also lifted refining economics across the globe. However, the recent bullish developments inproduct markets are not expected to persist, as refineries on the US Gulf Coast have returned to normal operation over thelast two weeks and the risk of product shortages has eased significantly. However, with the approach of the winter season,the tight distillate situation may provide some support for crude prices, but it may not be enough to overshadow otherbearish factors in the market. OPEC spot fixtures averaged 12.3 mb/d in September, representing a drop of 3% from the previous month, supported bylower OPEC fixtures outside the Middle East. OPEC sailings remained steady, averaging 23.3 mb/d. Arrivals in the USdeclined last month in line with the sharp 1.4 mb/d drop in crude imports. Spot freight rates for crude oil tankers showed aclear recovery from the weaker rates the month before, mainly due to high hurricane activity and the strong Middle Eastmarket. Product tanker freight rates rose in September with a more active West of Suez market. Hurricanes Gustav and Ike pushed US commercial oil stocks below the bottom of the five-year range for the first time thisyear in September. Inventories lost 24 mb to stand at 960 mb, with products contributing 23 mb to the draw as refinerieswere the most affected by the hurricanes. Crude stocks stood roughly at the five-year average of 300 mb. However, totalUS inventories rose sharply in the week ending 3 October as imports increased following the recovery in port infrastructure.Despite a drop in September, stocks remained comfortable in terms of days of forward cover as demand has weakened. InEU-15 plus Norway, total oil inventories fell 4.5 mb to stand at the five-year average. Crude oil remained comfortable after abuild of more than 5 mb. Japan’s commercial oil stocks, particularly products, continued the upward trend in August.According to preliminary data, total stocks moved above 200 mb in late September for the first time since January 2007. The demand for OPEC crude in 2008 is expected to average 32.0 mb/d, a decline of 260 tb/d from the previous year. In2009, the demand for OPEC crude is expected to average 31.1 mb/d, a decline of 870 tb/d.