繼第二季度經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩之后，中國(guó)和美國(guó)似乎在第三季度實(shí)現(xiàn)了更好的增長(zhǎng)。歐元區(qū)和日本的前景不容樂(lè)觀，一些亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)體，特別是韓國(guó)，正遭受需求不足和通脹上升的困擾?？傮w而言，由于北美、拉丁美洲、中國(guó)和俄羅斯的增長(zhǎng)，預(yù)計(jì)2004年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)將實(shí)現(xiàn)4.9%的略高增長(zhǎng)率。2005年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)前景受到2004年石油價(jià)格異常急劇和持續(xù)上漲的影響。此前，預(yù)測(cè)人士一致預(yù)計(jì)，2005年油價(jià)將穩(wěn)定在平均約35美元/桶（WTIbasis）的水平。然而，8月和9月市場(chǎng)的強(qiáng)勁導(dǎo)致分析師修改了他們的預(yù)測(cè)，目前37-38美元/桶的平均價(jià)格是大多數(shù)預(yù)測(cè)的基礎(chǔ)。油價(jià)上漲6-8%可能會(huì)使世界經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)減少約0.15%，2005年國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)也已降至4.1%。這一增長(zhǎng)的影響很難判斷，因?yàn)闅W洲雖然是一個(gè)能源效率高的地區(qū)，但已經(jīng)飽受商業(yè)和消費(fèi)者信心不足之苦。歐元區(qū)2005年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期已下調(diào)至2%。日本的石油密度也相對(duì)較低，但隨著中國(guó)和其他亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)體的放緩，日本的出口需求可能會(huì)減弱。預(yù)計(jì)日本2005年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率也只有2%。預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期將大幅下調(diào)0.28%，但仍將受益于2004年強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)勢(shì)頭。因此，2005年美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)計(jì)將增長(zhǎng)3.2%，與20年平均水平持平。能源成本上升對(duì)發(fā)展中國(guó)家的影響差別很大。撒哈拉以南非洲的增長(zhǎng)率預(yù)計(jì)將下降0.4%，這意味著整個(gè)非洲的增長(zhǎng)率將下降。拉丁美洲幾乎沒(méi)有受到影響，因?yàn)樵摰貐^(qū)的許多經(jīng)濟(jì)體都生產(chǎn)石油。亞太地區(qū)的增長(zhǎng)率下降了0.5%，印度的增長(zhǎng)率下降了0.27%。中國(guó)的前景是復(fù)雜的。油價(jià)上漲將導(dǎo)致中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩，但2005年的主要因素可能是更為嚴(yán)格的貨幣政策?？偟膩?lái)說(shuō)，2005年中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率預(yù)計(jì)將恢復(fù)強(qiáng)勁，但較低的增長(zhǎng)率為7.6%。石油輸出國(guó)組織（OPEC）的參考籃子在8月下旬放松后，在9月份飆升至歷史高點(diǎn)。由于颶風(fēng)伊凡威脅并隨后咆哮著穿過(guò)墨西哥灣，擾亂了石油供應(yīng)，影響了美國(guó)墨西哥灣沿岸的生產(chǎn)，籃子價(jià)格急劇上升。盡管歐佩克決定從11月1日起將日產(chǎn)量提高100萬(wàn)桶或4%至2700萬(wàn)桶，而9月份的實(shí)際產(chǎn)量達(dá)到3012萬(wàn)桶，創(chuàng)下歷史新高，但市場(chǎng)仍看好對(duì)尼日利亞罷工的擔(dān)憂。目前，市場(chǎng)情緒是這樣的，參與者在最輕微的壞消息（或潛在的壞消息）出現(xiàn)時(shí)就開(kāi)始哄抬價(jià)格，同時(shí)打折，幾乎沒(méi)有對(duì)好消息作出反應(yīng)。該籃子本月收于43.39美元/桶，上漲近14%，而月平均值則小幅升至40.36美元/桶，今年的平均值為34.98美元/桶，而去年為28.10美元/桶。進(jìn)入10月以來(lái)，對(duì)供應(yīng)短缺的持續(xù)擔(dān)憂維持了該籃子在上半月的平均價(jià)格上漲至43.94美元/桶。中桶綜合設(shè)施的良好表現(xiàn)支撐了9月份全球煉油廠的利潤(rùn)率，特別是在亞洲。隨著全球特別是日本和韓國(guó)取暖油庫(kù)存水平低于平均水平，且增產(chǎn)的操作可能性有限，中間餾分油裂值可能進(jìn)一步增強(qiáng)，并成為未來(lái)兩個(gè)月市場(chǎng)的驅(qū)動(dòng)力。中間餾分油的上漲趨勢(shì)也吸引了投機(jī)者增加取暖油的凈多頭頭寸。繼歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量高達(dá)3012萬(wàn)桶/日（這是過(guò)去25年來(lái)的最高水平）之后，歐佩克地區(qū)的現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量在9月份增加了0.76萬(wàn)桶/日，達(dá)到了1412萬(wàn)桶/日。中東以外的歐佩克成員國(guó)對(duì)原油現(xiàn)貨供應(yīng)量的增長(zhǎng)貢獻(xiàn)最大，增加了65萬(wàn)桶/日，原因是對(duì)甜原油的需求量很大。由于在墨西哥灣颶風(fēng)過(guò)后的需求量有限，原油價(jià)格在下半年大幅上升。由于需求量大，特別是冬季前的蒸餾油需求量大，成品油庫(kù)市場(chǎng)依然緊俏。由于今年世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)強(qiáng)于預(yù)期，2004年第二季度的需求高于預(yù)期，以及7月和8月經(jīng)合組織和非經(jīng)合組織的初步需求數(shù)據(jù)更為強(qiáng)勁，2004年世界石油需求增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)進(jìn)一步上調(diào)，從11萬(wàn)桶/日上調(diào)至260萬(wàn)桶/日。由于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)低于預(yù)期，以及價(jià)格水平可能產(chǎn)生的影響，2005年的石油需求增長(zhǎng)被下調(diào)了13萬(wàn)桶/日，至161萬(wàn)桶/日。因此，全球石油需求總量預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到平均8341萬(wàn)桶/日，這意味著今年的增長(zhǎng)率為2%。根據(jù)第二來(lái)源，歐佩克9月份的原油產(chǎn)量估計(jì)為3012萬(wàn)桶/日，比8月份的數(shù)字高出43萬(wàn)桶/日。2004年度非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)量估計(jì)下降到49.95 Mb/d，部分反映了伊凡颶風(fēng)對(duì)墨西哥灣的影響。2005年非歐佩克石油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到5116萬(wàn)桶/日，比2004年的預(yù)測(cè)增加121萬(wàn)桶/日。2002年和2003年FSU的凈出口估計(jì)分別為555萬(wàn)桶/日和648萬(wàn)桶/日，預(yù)計(jì)2004年和2005年將增至726萬(wàn)桶/日和769萬(wàn)桶/日。由于歐佩克產(chǎn)量的增加，經(jīng)合組織的商業(yè)石油庫(kù)存在8月份繼續(xù)顯示出800萬(wàn)桶的增長(zhǎng)，加上7月份觀察到的3300萬(wàn)桶的增長(zhǎng)。然而，在九月底，美國(guó)商業(yè)原油庫(kù)存經(jīng)歷了比以往更陡峭的下降，這也影響了產(chǎn)品的建設(shè)，繼伊凡颶風(fēng)在墨西哥灣。自那以后，進(jìn)口的復(fù)蘇使得原油庫(kù)存得以重建，截至10月8日的一周，原油庫(kù)存增加了420萬(wàn)桶。

Following a second quarter slowdown, China and the USA appear to have achieved better growth in the third quarter. Theoutlook for the Euro-zone and Japan is less encouraging and some Asian economies, particularly South Korea, are sufferingfrom a lack of demand and higher inflation. Overall the world economy is expected to achieve a slightly higher growth rateof 4.9% in 2004 as a result of gains in North America, Latin America, China and Russia. The outlook for economic growth in 2005 has been somewhat affected by the unusually sharp and persistent rise in oil pricesduring 2004. The consensus of forecasters had earlier expected the oil price to settle at an average level of about $35/b (WTIbasis) for 2005. However, the strength of the market in August and September led analysts to revise their projections and anaverage price of $37-38/b now underlies most forecasts. The 6-8% increase in oil prices may reduce world economic activityby about 0.15% and the GDP growth forecast for 2005 has been reduced to 4.1%. The impact of the increase is hard to judge since Europe, though an energy efficient region, already suffers from a lack ofbusiness and consumer confidence. The Euro-zone growth forecast for 2005 has been cut to 2%. Japan has also a relativelylow oil intensity but may suffer from weaker export demand as Chinese and other Asian economies slow. Japan is alsoexpected to grow by only 2% in 2005. The US economy is expected to experience a larger reduction in the growth forecastof 0.28% but will still benefit from the stronger economic momentum from 2004. As a result, the US economy is expected togrow by 3.2% in 2005, in line with the 20-year average. The effect of higher energy costs on developing countries varies greatly. The growth rate of Sub-Saharan Africa is expectedto fall by 0.4% which means that Africa as a whole will see lower growth. Latin America is hardly affected since manyeconomies in the region produce oil. The growth rate of the Asia Pacific region has been reduced by 0.5% whilst Indiangrowth has been cut by 0.27%. The outlook for China is complex. Higher oil prices will tend to reduce Chinese growth butthe main factor for 2005 may be a more restrictive monetary policy. Overall the growth rate of China in 2005 is expected toremain strong but a lower rate of 7.6%. The OPEC Reference Basket surged to all time highs in September after easing in late August. The Basket rose dramatically onfear of a possible supply shortfall as Hurricane Ivan threatened and then roared through the Gulf of Mexico, disrupting oilsupply to as well as impacting the production of the US Gulf Coast. Despite an OPEC decision to increase its production quotaby 1 mb/d or 4% to 27 mb/d effective 1 November at a time of record high actual output reaching 30.12 mb/d in September, themarket remained bullish on concerns over a strike in Nigeria. Currently, market sentiment is such that participants are biddingup prices at the onset of the slightest bad news (or potentially bad news) while discounting and hardly responding to good news.The Basket closed the month at $43.39/b for a rise of nearly 14%, while the monthly average edged up to $40.36/b. The year-todateaverage stood at $34.98/b compared to $28.10/b the year before. Moving into October, persistent fear of a supply shortfallmaintained the Basket’s rise to average $43.94/b in the first half of the month. The good performance of the middle of the barrel complex has supported refinery margins across the globe in September,particularly in Asia. With the level of heating oil stocks below average around the world, especially in Japan and SouthKorea, and limited operational possibilities to increase output, the middle distillate crack value may strengthen further andremain the driving force of the market in the next two months. The upward trend for middle distillates has temptedspeculators to increase net long positions in heating oil as well. OPEC area spot fixtures increased by 0.76 mb/d to stand at 14.12 mb/d in September, following the high level of OPECcrude oil production, which secondary sources place at 30.12 mb/d, the highest level in the last 25 years. OPEC MemberCountries outside the Middle East contributed the most to the rise in spot fixtures, adding 0.65 mb/d, due to the high demandfor sweet crude oils. Freight rates for crude oil moved upward significantly in the second half of the month due to highdemand in conjunction with limited tonnage availability following hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. The product tankermarket also remained tight due to high demand, especially for distillates ahead of the winter. The world oil demand growth forecast for 2004 has seen a further upward revision of 0.11 mb/d to 2.6 mb/d due to thisyear’s stronger than expected expansion in the world economy along with higher than anticipated demand in the secondquarter of 2004 and more robust preliminary demand figures for both the OECD and non-OECD in July and August. Incontrast, due to lower than anticipated global economic growth and the possible effect that price levels could have ondemand, oil demand growth in 2005 has been revised down by 0.13 mb/d to 1.61 mb/d. Thus, total world oil demand nextyear is projected to average 83.41 mb/d, which implies a growth rate of 2% for the year. OPEC crude oil production in September, based on secondary sources, is estimated at 30.12 mb/d, 0.43 mb/d over therevised August figure. Non-OPEC oil supply estimate for 2004 was revised down to 49.95 mb/d, partly as a reflection of theimpact of Hurricane Ivan on the Gulf of Mexico. Non-OPEC supply in 2005 is expected to reach 51.16 mb/d, an increase of1.21 mb/d above the 2004 forecast. Net FSU exports for 2002 and 2003 are estimated at 5.55 mb/d and 6.48 mb/drespectively and are expected to rise to 7.26 mb/d and 7.69 mb/d in 2004 and 2005. As a result of increasing OPEC Production, OECD commercial oil stocks continued to show a build of 8 mb in August,adding to the recent increase of 33 mb observed in July. However at the end of September, US commercial crude oil stocksexperienced a steeper than usual decline, which also affected products build, following the passage of Hurricane Ivan in theGulf of Mexico. Since then, a recovery in imports has allowed crude oil stocks to rebuild with the week-ending 8 Octobershowing an increase of 4.2 mb in crude oil inventories.