原油價格變動4月份，歐佩克參考價格籃子平均為37.86美元/桶，上漲3.21美元或9.3%。盡管目前持續(xù)供過于求，但受市場形勢改善預期提振，油價較年初低點上漲了40%。原油期貨價格上漲超過8%，其中冰布倫特原油期貨價格上漲3.55美元，至平均43.34美元/桶，而萊尼梅克斯WTI原油期貨價格上漲3.16美元，至41.12美元/桶。預計2016年世界經濟增長率為3.1%，在去年預計增長2.9%后，兩者與上月持平。經合組織2016年的增長率仍為1.9%，略低于2015年的2.0%。在新興經濟體，印度和中國今年繼續(xù)以7.5%和6.5%的水平擴張，中國在2006年第一季度好于預期的情況下修正了0.2個百分點。然而，巴西和俄羅斯今年預計仍將處于衰退狀態(tài)，分別萎縮3.4%和1.1%，巴西的石油需求量修正后下降了0.5個百分點。2015年世界石油需求量增長了約154萬桶/日，與上個月的報告持平。石油總消費量平均為9298萬桶/日。2016年，世界石油需求量預計將下降與上個月的預測相比，石油價格上漲了120萬桶/日，達到9418萬桶/日，與美國和中國的下調幅度相抵消。2015年世界石油供應國歐佩克的石油供應增長略有上升，至147萬桶/日，2016年的平均水平為5714萬桶/日，非歐佩克石油供應調低至平均5640萬桶/日，收縮0.74萬桶/日。根據直接通信，歐佩克天然氣和非常規(guī)石油2015年的估計量調低了20噸/日，從13萬桶/日上升至平均613萬桶/日。2016年的增長也調低至16萬桶/日，至平均629萬桶/日。4月份，據二級消息來源稱，歐佩克原油產量增加188 tb/d，平均為3244 mb/d。美國的產品市場和煉油業(yè)務產品市場受到強勁的國內汽油需求的支撐，同時由于一些中斷和維修導致市場人氣趨緊。在歐洲，在駕駛季節(jié)到來之前，較高的汽油出口機會為煉油廠利潤率提供了支撐，亞洲利潤率走弱，盡管該地區(qū)煉油廠的維護達到頂峰，但中間餾分油的供應過剩對產品市場造成壓力。油輪市場臟油輪現貨運費下降，原因是超大型油輪和阿芙拉型油輪的運費下降，因為噸位供應量增加，而市場活動仍然有限。4月份蘇伊士型油輪現貨運價有所上漲，主要是由于對幾個目的地的強烈信心，加上偶爾出現的倉位緊張。在清潔油輪市場，蘇伊士以西的活動支持運價，而蘇伊士以東的運價仍然疲弱。3月份，商業(yè)石油庫存下降至3049MB。在這個水平上，OEC商業(yè)石油庫存比最近五年的平均水平高出約36100萬桶。原油庫存較低，為21500萬桶，而產品基本持平，為1460萬桶。就遠期覆蓋率而言，經合組織商業(yè)庫存為66.8天，比最近五年的平均水平高出約7.5天。據估計，2015年歐佩克原油供需平衡平均為2970萬桶/日，與上月持平，較上年減少0.1百萬桶/日。2016年，預計歐佩克原油需求量為3150萬桶/日，與上一份報告持平，比去年高出180萬桶/日。

Crude Oil Price MovementsThe OPEC Reference Basket averaged $37.86/b in April, a gain of $3.21 or 9.3%. Thiswas 40% higher than the lows reached in the beginning of the year, buoyed byexpectations for an improving market situation, despite the current persistent oversupply.Oil futures surged more than 8%, with ICE Brent up $3.55 to average $43.34/b, whileNymex WTI rose $3.16 to $41.12/b.World EconomyWorld economic growth is forecast at 3.1% in 2016, after estimated growth of 2.9% lastyear, both unchanged from the previous month. OECD growth in 2016 remains at 1.9%,slightly below the 2.0% seen in 2015. In the emerging economies, India and Chinacontinue to expand this year at a considerable level of 7.5% and 6.5%, respectively, withChina having been revised up by 0.2 pp after a better-than-expected 1Q16. Brazil andRussia, however, are forecast to remain in recession this year, contracting by 3.4% and1.1% respectively, with Brazil having been revised down by 0.5 pp.World Oil DemandWorld oil demand in 2015 grew by around 1.54 mb/d, unchanged from last month’s report.Total oil consumption averaged 92.98 mb/d. In 2016, world oil demand is projected to riseby 1.20 mb/d to reach 94.18 mb/d, unchanged from last month’s projections, despiteupward revisions to Other Asia, which were counterbalanced by downward revisions toLatin America and China.World Oil SupplyNon-OPEC oil supply growth for 2015 has been revised up slightly to 1.47 mb/d for anaverage of 57.14 mb/d. For 2016, non-OPEC oil supply was adjusted lower to average56.40 mb/d, contracting by 0.74 mb/d. The estimate for OPEC NGLs and non-conventionaloils in 2015 has been revised down by 20 tb/d based on direct communication to show arise of 0.13 mb/d to average 6.13 mb/d. Growth in 2016 has also been adjusted lower to0.16 mb/d to average 6.29 mb/d. In April, OPEC crude oil production rose 188 tb/d toaverage 32.44 mb/d, according to secondary sources.Product Markets and Refining OperationsProduct markets in the US were supported by strong domestic gasoline demand amidtightening sentiment due to some outages and maintenance. In Europe, higher exportopportunities for gasoline ahead of the driving season lent support to refinery margins.Meanwhile, Asian margins weakened despite peaking refinery maintenance in the regionas the oversupply in middle distillates weighed on product markets.Tanker MarketDirty tanker spot freight rates declined on the back of lower VLCC and Aframax freightrates as tonnage availability grew while market activity remains limited. Suezmax spotfreight rates improved in April supported by strong sentiment for several destinationscombined with an occasionally tight position list. In the clean tanker market, West of Suezactivities supported freight rates, while East of Suez rates remained weak.Stock MovementsOECD commercial oil stocks fell in March to stand at 3,049 mb. At this level, OECDcommercial oil stocks are around 361 mb above the latest five-year average. Crudeinventories showed a lower surplus of 215 mb, while products were broadly flat at 146 mb.In terms of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks stood at 66.8 days, some 7.5 dayshigher than the latest five-year average.Balance of Supply and DemandDemand for OPEC crude in 2015 is estimated to average 29.7 mb/d, unchanged from theprevious month and 0.1 mb/d lower than the previous year. In 2016, demand for OPECcrude is projected at 31.5 mb/d, unchanged from the previous report and 1.8 mb/d higherthan last year.