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低油價對阿爾及利亞的影響THE IMPACT OF LOW OIL PRICES ON ALGERIA

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更新時間：2021-09-17
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在北非安全狀況惡化之際，阿爾及利亞經(jīng)濟遭受重創(chuàng)，這引發(fā)了人們對歐佩克國家抵御由此引發(fā)的經(jīng)濟、政治和安全沖擊能力的擔憂，并邀請人們將當前局勢與阿爾及利亞在1986-1988年間經(jīng)歷的災難性事件進行比較油價暴跌及其后果。阿爾及利亞的安全和能源未來至關(guān)重要：它在西地中海擁有戰(zhàn)略地位，是在阿拉伯之春和隨后幾年保持穩(wěn)定的兩個北非國家之一。它還是非洲最大的天然氣生產(chǎn)國和主要的液化天然氣出口國。它是歐洲第二大天然氣出口國，也是地中海國家的主要石油供應國。本文發(fā)現(xiàn)，阿爾及利亞目前所經(jīng)歷的情況與導致20世紀90年代血腥內(nèi)戰(zhàn)的一連串事件既有明顯的相似之處，也有重大的區(qū)別，與30年前相比，今天的阿爾及利亞更能抵御市場低迷。取決于當前低油價的持續(xù)時間，這些分歧應能減輕重演上世紀80年代中期石油沖擊的風險，那次沖擊使該國陷入衰退，并引發(fā)叛亂、伊斯蘭選舉勝利，最后是軍事政變、鎮(zhèn)壓和內(nèi)戰(zhàn)。雖然阿爾及利亞的財政和經(jīng)常賬戶余額明顯惡化，但其外匯儲備仍然可觀（即使迅速減少），外債也微不足道。這與上世紀80年代末形成鮮明對比，當時外匯儲備不足和外債居高不下是迫使政府采取創(chuàng)傷休克療法來實現(xiàn)穩(wěn)定的兩個主要因素。此外，盡管石油和天然氣收入下降，阿爾及利亞經(jīng)濟在目前的低價格環(huán)境下繼續(xù)增長，并能夠避免像1986-1988年那樣的經(jīng)濟衰退。這給了阿爾及爾更多的短期政策空間，以控制緊縮和改革措施的步伐和深度。上世紀90年代致命內(nèi)戰(zhàn)的記憶，2011年阿拉伯起義的結(jié)果，以及地區(qū)安全的全面惡化，也可能緩和阿爾及利亞人傾向于采取緊縮措施。至關(guān)重要的是，與過去相比，安全部隊得到了更好的訓練、了解情況和裝備，國防和安全開支沒有受到預算削減的影響。

battered the Algerian economy at a time of degenerating security conditions in Northern Africa, raising concerns about the ability of the OPEC nation to weather the resulting economic, political, and security shocks, and inviting comparisons between the current situation and the catastrophic events experienced by the country during the 1986–1988 oil price collapse and in its aftermath. Algeria’s security and energy future are of critical importance: it holds a strategic position in the Western Mediterranean and was one of two North African countries that remained stable during the Arab Spring and the subsequent years. It is also the largest natural gas producer in Africa and a major LNG exporter. It is the number-two exporter of natural gas to Europe and a key supplier of oil to its Mediterranean countries. This paper finds that there are both clear parallels and key differences between what Algeria is going through now and the chain of events that led to the bloody civil war of the 1990s. On balance, and notwithstanding the fact that some indicators have deteriorated to worrying levels, Algeria is better equipped altogether to weather a market downturn today than it was thirty years ago. Depending on how protracted the current period of low oil prices might turn out to be, these differences should mitigate the risks of a repeat of the mid-1980s oil shock that plunged the country into recession and triggered a spiral of revolts, Islamist electoral victories, and finally a military coup, repression, and civil war. While Algeria’s fiscal and current account balances clearly have worsened, its reserves remain substantial (even if rapidly decreasing) and its external debt is negligible. This is in contrast with the late 1980s, when a lack of reserves and high external debt were the two main factors that forced the government to adopt a traumatic shock-therapy approach to stabilization. In addition, despite the decline in oil and gas revenues, the Algerian economy has continued to grow during the current low price environment and has been able to avoid an economic recession like the one experienced in 1986–1988. This gives Algiers more short-term policy space to control the pace and depth of austerity and reform measures. The memories of the deadly civil war in the 1990s, the outcome of the 2011 Arab revolts, and the overall deterioration of regional security may also moderate the reaction of Algerians toward austerity measures. Critically, the security forces are better trained, informed, and equipped than in the past, and defense and security expenses are not being affected by budgetary cuts.

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