2020年將是歐盟的一個重要里程碑，因為成員國將在氣候變化和能源承諾方面受到考驗。風能將對實現電力部門的這些承諾作出重大貢獻，使許多成員國能夠以成本效益高的方式實現其目標，并繼續(xù)進行能源系統(tǒng)改造。2017-2020年平均每年部署12.6千兆瓦，新部署的風能容量量看起來已定根據WindEurope的中心設想，到2020年保持相當強勁。我們預計2017年將創(chuàng)下年度安裝量的新高。我們預計在2017-2020年的4年內將安裝50千兆瓦。我們預計這將使歐盟的累計裝機容量達到204gw。我們預計，這50千兆瓦的新增產能將占歐盟4年新增可再生能源產能的一半以上，遠高于太陽能光伏、生物能源和水力發(fā)電。風電裝機容量超過200千兆瓦，到2020年可滿足歐洲16.5%的電力需求，超過水力發(fā)電，成為最大的可再生能源。我們預計丹麥將用風能和德國的近30%來滿足超過一半的需求。愛爾蘭、葡萄牙、西班牙和英國將分別以29%、27%、24%和21%緊隨其后。到2020年底，新設施將保持相對強勁的勢頭，但政策的不確定性以及對2020年后氣候和能源框架缺乏雄心，可能會對該行業(yè)產生重大負面影響。只有少數成員國提供了可見性和監(jiān)管確定性。由于歐盟28國中只有5個國家宣布了拍賣計劃，投資者收入穩(wěn)定性缺乏確定性，市場集中度仍將居高不下，其中德國、英國、法國、西班牙和荷蘭將安裝大部分產能。僅德國就將占所有裝機容量的三分之一，總容量為16.5千兆瓦。第二大市場將是英國，三分之二的新設備將在海外。法國將位列第三，潛在裝機容量高達6.5gw。在岸市場將保持穩(wěn)定，到4年期結束時略有下降，主要原因是德國的計劃活動減少。然而，我們預計西班牙將在幾年的閑置后經歷大幅增長；繼最近的招標之后，該行業(yè)正準備安裝4.1千兆瓦的容量。離岸市場的增長速度將高于國內市場。平均每年新增裝機容量為3.1千兆瓦，海上風電將占新增裝機總量的四分之一左右（相比之下，在2013-2016年的過去4年中，海上風電所占份額為15%）。海外市場將主要集中在英國，容量為5.2千兆瓦，占新增并網容量的42%。另外4個國家將看到海上設施：德國（3.5gw）、比利時（1.5gw）、荷蘭（1.4gw）和丹麥（1.0gw）。2019年，海上年裝機量將達到4千兆瓦以上。2017年上半年，我們估計整個歐盟28國的開發(fā)商在2017年上半年的裝機容量約為6.1千兆瓦：陸上4.8千兆瓦，海上1.3千兆瓦。活動集中在德國、英國和法國，占82%。歐盟28國中有15個國家在此期間沒有安裝，只有8個國家超過100兆瓦大關。離岸市場的活動是2016年上半年的2.6倍，6個風電場在4個國家（德國、英國、比利時和芬蘭）帶來了額外的產能。在此期間，11個歐盟成員國宣布了總計81億歐元的新風能投資，用于41千兆瓦的新資產。德國是最大的投資國，新產能融資超過45億歐元和18千兆瓦。該國的投資活動占歐洲市場的53%。由于在此期間英國沒有任何海上風電項目達成最終投資決定，投資額降至10億歐元以下的創(chuàng)紀錄低點。

2020 will mark an important milestone for the European Union as Member States will be tested on their climate change  and energy commitments. Wind energy will make a significant contribution to achieving these commitments in the  power sector, allowing many Member States to reach their targets in a cost-effective way and to continue their energy  system transformation.Deployment in 2017-2020 With an average of 12.6 GW per year, volumes of new deployment of wind energy capacity look set to remain fairly  strong through to 2020, according to WindEurope’s Central Scenario. We expect 2017 to mark a new record high  in annual installations. We expect 50 GW to be installed  in the 4 years of 2017-2020. We expect this would bring  the EU to an accumulative installed capacity of 204 GW.  We expect this 50 GW additional capacity to represent  over half of all new renewable capacity in the EU over the  4-year period, well above solar PV, bioenergy and hydro  power.  With over 200 GW of installed capacity, wind energy  could meet 16.5% of Europe’s electricity needs by 2020, surpassing hydro power and becoming the largest source  of renewable electricity. We expect Denmark to meet  over half of its demand with wind energy and Germany  almost 30%. Ireland, Portugal, Spain and the UK will follow  with respectively 29, 27, 24 and 21%. New installations will remain relatively strong until the  end of 2020, but policy uncertainty and lack of ambition  for the post-2020 climate and energy framework could  have a significant negative impact on the sector. Only a  handful of Member States have provided visibility and  regulatory certainty. With only 5 countries among the EU- 28 announcing auctions plans, there is a lack of certainty  on revenue stability for investors.Market concentration will remain high, with Germany, the  UK, France, Spain and the Netherlands installing most of  the capacity. Germany alone will represent a third of all  the installed capacity, with a total of 16.5 GW. The second  largest market will be the UK, with two thirds of its new  installations offshore. France will be third in the list with  potential installations of up to 6.5 GW. The onshore market will remain stable with a slight decrease towards the end of the 4-year period, mainly due  to lower planned activity in Germany. However, we expect  Spain to experience radical growth after several years of  inactivity; following the recent tenders, the industry is  gearing up to install 4.1 GW of capacity. The offshore market will grow at a higher pace than the  onshore market. With average new installations of 3.1  GW/year, offshore wind will represent about one quarter  of the total new installations (compared to a 15% share in  the last 4-year period 2013-2016). The offshore market  will concentrate mainly in the UK with 5.2 GW, representing 42% new grid-connected capacity. Another 4 countries  will see offshore installations: Germany (3.5 GW), Belgium  (1.5 GW), the Netherlands (1.4 GW) and Denmark (1.0  GW). In 2019, annual installations in offshore will reach  to over 4 GW. In the first half of 2017  In total, we estimate that developers have installed across  the EU-28 about 6.1 GW of capacity in the first half of  2017: 4.8 GW onshore and 1.3 GW offshore. Activity has  been concentrated in Germany, UK and France with a  share of 82%. 15 countries out of the EU-28 saw no installations for this period while only 8 countries surpassed  the 100 MW mark. The activity in the offshore market is  2.6 times higher than for the first half of 2016, with 6 wind  farms bringing additional capacity in 4 countries (Germany, the UK, Belgium and Finland). During this period, 11 EU Member States have announced  new wind energy investments totalling €8.1bn for 4.1 GW  of new assets. Germany was the biggest investor, with  over €4.5bn and 1.8 GW of new capacity financed. Investment activity in the country accounted for 53% of the European market. With no offshore wind projects reaching  Final Investment Decision in the UK during this period,  investments dropped to a record low below €1bn.