全球風電報告2017年年度市場Global Wind Report Annual market update 2017
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- 更新時間:2021-09-29
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就全球設施而言,2017年并不是一個壯觀的年份,但關鍵的發(fā)展標志著能源轉型的向前推進。在風力發(fā)電、太陽能和儲能經(jīng)濟性不斷提高的推動下,未來可持續(xù)能源體系的輪廓開始變得清晰起來。“混合”風能/太陽能/儲能電站目前正在建設中,能夠在一年中的大部分時間內24/7提供清潔可靠的電力;公用事業(yè)公司正在認真試驗用電池儲能代替尖峰電站;電動汽車在主要市場的銷售也在蓬勃發(fā)展。地方微電網(wǎng)的發(fā)展,一些采用區(qū)塊鏈技術的點對點電力交易,以及越來越復雜的市場結構來匹配所有規(guī)模的供需,只是開始出現(xiàn)的一些因素。去年此時,我們在摩洛哥的一次投標中報告了價格,該投標突破了0.03美元/千瓦時的門檻。今年,我們注意到墨西哥最近一次招標中創(chuàng)紀錄的低價格,突破了0.02億千瓦時。它能低多少?沒有人確切地知道,但成本將繼續(xù)下降,盡管速度可能低于近年來??傮w而言,2017年全球新增風電裝機量為52.5千兆瓦,2016年市場新增風電裝機量為54.6千兆瓦,總裝機容量高達539千兆瓦。然而,這些數(shù)字背后的事實是,目前風能在越來越多的純商業(yè)市場上運行,擺脫舊的支持計劃;隨著政府、監(jiān)管機構和行業(yè)逐漸習慣新的現(xiàn)實,這種轉變在許多市場造成了政策差距。我們預計,在2019年全球市場恢復增長之前,2018年的安裝數(shù)量也會感受到這些差距。在過去十年的大部分時間里,推動全球市場增長的中國在2017年裝機容量為19.7千兆瓦,是其他市場的兩倍多,盡管相比2016年的23千兆瓦有所下降。印度創(chuàng)下了歷史新高,2017年首次突破了4gw的關口,盡管2018年可能是一個“缺口”年,但我們可以預計,從2019年開始,印度將實現(xiàn)快速增長。歐洲度過了不平凡的一年,創(chuàng)造了國內外的新紀錄。德國、英國、法國、比利時、愛爾蘭和克羅地亞以及離岸市場創(chuàng)造了新的年度市場記錄,占歐洲16803兆瓦(歐盟為15638兆瓦)總量的3148兆瓦。美國安裝了一個堅固的7gw,躲過了一槍,基本上安然無恙地通過了新的稅收法案。加拿大的數(shù)字有所下降,但最大的新聞是12月阿爾伯塔省的拍賣會,價格低于0.03美元/千瓦時,我們可以預計2018年會有更多的拍賣會。墨西哥新改革的市場現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)準備好起飛了,今年我們可以預計超過1000兆瓦的設備。巴西在2017年的裝機容量剛剛超過2千兆瓦,似乎政治和經(jīng)濟危機中最嚴重的一次已經(jīng)過去,在中斷近2年后的12月份的拍賣會上,新的風電項目正在簽約,2018年還有兩次拍賣會。阿根廷目前擁有一條3千兆瓦的管道,今年第三季度將舉行另一場拍賣。中東和非洲局勢平靜,只有南非增加了產(chǎn)能……但南非帶來的好消息是,4月4日,上一輪招標的購電協(xié)議在拖延了2年多之后,在國際足聯(lián)簽署。在太平洋地區(qū),唯一的活動是在澳大利亞,該國安裝了一個適度的245兆瓦,但現(xiàn)在有一個2.8兆瓦的管道將在未來幾年內建成,以實現(xiàn)2020年的目標。為了證明海上風電已經(jīng)成功地邁出了第一步,2017年,德國的海上開發(fā)權首次“零出價”報價超過1千兆瓦。這有助于促使荷蘭政府啟動一項700兆瓦的“無補貼”招標,并于3月份中標。雖然這還需要幾年的時間才能成為新的常態(tài),但離岸市場的發(fā)展在經(jīng)濟上與任何新的一代都具有競爭力,至少在歐洲是如此;這引發(fā)了全球對這項技術的巨大興趣:美國、日本、韓國、臺灣、印度、澳大利亞,甚至巴西!這是全球風能理事會發(fā)布的第13份全球風能產(chǎn)業(yè)狀況年度報告。它及時地提供了一個特定時刻全球工業(yè)的全面概況;一個工業(yè)目前分布在90多個國家,其中30個國家的裝機容量超過1000兆瓦,9個國家的裝機容量超過10000兆瓦。本報告所載的信息——市場數(shù)據(jù)、利潤和分析,主要是通過全球的GWEC成員協(xié)會和公司以及各國政府和獨立分析師收集的。我們感謝所有的貢獻者,并期待繼續(xù)我們的合作
2017was not a spectacular year in terms of global installations, but key developments marked the forward progress of the energy transformation. Driven by the improving economics of wind power, as well as solar and storage, the outlines of a future sustainable energy system are beginning to become clear. ‘Hybrid’ wind/solar/storage plants are now being built, able to supply clean reliable power 24/7 for most of the year; utilities are seriously experimenting with battery storage in place of peaker plants; and EV sales are booming in key markets. The development of local micro-grids, some using peer to peer power trading with blockchain technology, and more and more sophisticated market structures for matching up supply and demand at all scales are just some of the elements beginning to emerge. Last year at this time we reported on prices in a tender in Morocco having broken through the US$ 0.03/kWh barrier. This year, we note the record low prices in Mexico’s most recent tender, having broken through US$ 0.02/kWh. How much lower can it go? Nobody knows for sure, but costs will continue to come down, albeit probably at a slower rate than in recent years. Overall, 52.5 GW of new wind power was installed across the globe in 2017, a slight decrease on the 2016 market of 54.6 GW, bringing total installed capacity up to 539 GW.Behind the numbers, however, is the fact that wind energy is now operating in more and more markets on a purely commercial basis, moving away from the support schemes of old; and that transition has created policy gaps in a number of markets, as governments and regulators as well as the industry gets accustomed to the new reality. We expect these gaps to be felt in 2018 installation numbers as well, before the global market returns to growth in 2019. China, the driver of global market growth for most of the last decade, installed 19.7 GW in 2017, more than twice as much as any other market, even though it represents a decrease on 2016’s 23 GW. India had a record year, breaking the 4 GW barrier for the fifi rst time in 2017, and although 2018 is likely to be a ‘gap’ year, we can expect rapid growth starting in 2019. Europe had an extraordinary year, setting new records both on and offshore. New annual market records were set in Germany, the UK, France, Belgium, Ireland and Croatia, as well as in the offshore segment, which accounted for 3,148 MW of the European total of 16,803 MW (15,638 MW in the EU). The US installed a solid 7 GW, having dodged a bullet and survived the new tax bill largely unscathed. Canada’s numbers were down, but the big news was December’s auction in Alberta, with prices coming in below US$ 0.03/kWh, and we can expect more auctions in 2018. Mexico’s newly reformed market is now ready for takeoff, and we can expect more than 1,000 MW of installations this year. Brazil installed just over 2 GW in 2017, and it seems as if the worst of the political and economic crises are behind them, with new wind power being contracted in December’s auction after a nearly 2-year hiatus, and there are two more auctions scheduled for 2018. Argentina now has a solid 3 GW pipeline with another auction coming up in the 3rd quarter of this year. The Middle East and Africa was quiet, with only South Africa adding capacity…but the good news from South Africa is that on 4 April the PPAs for the last round of tenders were fifi nally signed, after a delay of more than 2 years. In the Pacififi c, the only activity was in Australia which installed a modest 245 MW, but now has a 2.8 GW pipeline to be build out in the next few years to meet 2020 targets. Proving that offshore wind has fifi nally hit its stride, 2017 marked the fifi rst ‘zero-bid’ offers for offshore development rights, for more than 1 GW off Germany. This helped prompt the Dutch government to launch a ‘subsidy-free’ tender for 700 MW which was awarded in March. While it will be some years before this is the new normal, offshore going forward is economically competitive with any and all new forms of generation, at least in Europe; and this has sparked huge interest in the technology around the globe: in the United States, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, India, Australia and even Brazil! This is the 13th annual report on the status of the global wind industry by the Global Wind Energy Council. It provides a comprehensive overview of the global industry at a specififi c moment in time; an industry now present in more than 90 countries, 30 of which have more than 1,000 MW installed, and 9 with more than 10,000. The information contained in this report – market data, profifi les and analysis, have been collected primarily through GWEC’s member associations and companies around the world, as well as from governments and independent analysts. We thank all our contributors and look forward to continuing our collaboration in the future.
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