1. 2007 marks the fiftieth anniversary of the international atomic energy agency.As President Dwight Eisenhower stated in his "atoms for peace" speech to the United Nations general assembly in 1953, the iaea has become the organization through which the international community concretely expresses its hopes and expectations for the peaceful USES of nuclear science and technology.Fifty years later, the activities of the iaea remain crucial to maximizing the use of nuclear technology for economic and social development and to preventing its misuse for non-peaceful purposes.2. This chapter reviews important global developments in 2007 in the areas of the application of peaceful nuclear technology, global nuclear security and the security of nuclear materials and other radioactive materials and facilities, and verification of compliance with nuclear non-proliferation commitments. technology3. Rising populations and longer human life spans pose challenges to energy supply, human health, food security, access to water, resource conservation and environmental protection.The iaea, through its nuclear power applications and technical cooperation programme, is assisting member states to address these challenges.Current situation and trend of nuclear power4. Virtually every aspect of development, from poverty reduction to improved health care, requires reliable access to modern energy services.Faced with growing energy shortages and soaring fossil fuel prices, many countries are turning to nuclear power as a way to diversify their fuel supplies.One motivation behind the renewed interest in nuclear power is that it emits almost no greenhouse gases.5. At the end of 2007, a total of 34 reactors were under construction worldwide.The 439 nuclear-powered reactors in operation supply about 15 percent of the world's electricity.Three new reactors have been brought online in China, India and Romania, and one idle unit has been brought online again in the United States.No reactors have been decommissioned.Construction has started on seven new reactors in China, France, the republic of Korea and the Russian federation, while construction has resumed on unit 2 in the United States.The us nuclear regulatory commission (NRC) has received four applications for new reactors, the first in nearly 30 years.6. In 2007, iaea upgraded its medium-term forecast for global nuclear power growth to 447 gigawatts (gw) and 691 gw (gw) by 2030, corresponding to the low and high forecasts.Current developments and near-term and long-term growth prospects remain asia-centric.Asia is home to 19 of the 34 reactors under construction and 28 of the 39 new ones recently brought online.Innovative technologies and solutions7. Technological innovation is a key factor in ensuring the long-term sustainability of nuclear power.The iaea international project on innovative nuclear reactors and fuel cycles 1 provides a forum for the study of innovative nuclear energy systems and related requirements.Based on the assessment of the national plans implemented by the members of the project between 2005 and 2007, iaea issued recommendations on the methodology of the international project for innovative nuclear reactors and fuel cycles, which is applicable to the evaluation of different innovative nuclear energy systems.The methodology, consisting of seven manuals covering economy, environment, infrastructure, waste management and anti-proliferation, is being used in assessments carried out by member states and the European commission, as well as in studies on the closed fuel cycle of fast reactors carried out by several members of the project.The second phase of the international project on innovative nuclear reactors and fuel cycles will focus on innovative programmes for infrastructure and institutional development in countries where nuclear power is planned and on identifying collaborative projects among member states.8. Another international initiative on innovative nuclear technologies is the "fourth generation international forum", which aims to coordinate research activities in six next-generation nuclear energy systems: gas cooled fast reactor, lead cooled fast reactor, molten salt reactor, sodium cooled fast reactor, supercritical water cooled reactor and ultra-high temperature reactor.2 in 2007, agreement was reached on the soda-cooled fast reactor research and development project to facilitate work on advanced fuel, component design and non-reactor components for power plants.9. The design and production of safe and affordable small and medium-sized reactors is essential if nuclear power is to be a viable option for countries and regions with small power grids.Although seven of the 34 reactors under construction at the end of 2007 had a capacity of less than 600 megawatts, and three more had a capacity of between 600 and 700 megawatts, only one major manufacturer offered a midsize reactor design, the 700-megawatt candu-6.Many countries are currently developing about a dozen innovative designs for small and medium-sized reactors, some of which could be deployed in the next decade.In the Russian federation, for example, construction of a 70-megawatt floating offshore nuclear power station using two water-cooled reactors began in April and is scheduled for deployment in 2010.

1.   2007 年是國際原子能機構(gòu)成立第五十周年。正如德懷特艾森豪威爾總統(tǒng) 1953 年在聯(lián)合國大會發(fā)表“原子用于和平”演講中所闡明的那樣，原子能機構(gòu)已經(jīng)成為國際社會藉以具體表達(dá)對實現(xiàn)和平利用核科學(xué)技術(shù)之希望與期許的組織。50 年后的今天， 原子能機構(gòu)的活動對于最大程度地利用核技術(shù)促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會發(fā)展以及防止其濫用于非和平目的依然關(guān)系重大。

2. 本章對 2007 年全球在下列領(lǐng)域的一些重要發(fā)展作了評述，它們是：和平核技術(shù)的應(yīng)用、全球核安全以及核材料和其他放射性物質(zhì)和設(shè)施的保安以及對核不擴散承諾遵守情況的核查。

技術(shù)

3. 正在不斷增加的人口和人類壽命的延長為能源供應(yīng)、人體健康、糧食安全、水的獲得、資源節(jié)約和環(huán)境保護(hù)提出了種種挑戰(zhàn)。原子能機構(gòu)通過其核電、核應(yīng)用和技術(shù)合作計劃正在協(xié)助成員國應(yīng)對這些挑戰(zhàn)。

核電的現(xiàn)狀與趨勢

4. 從減貧到改善保健幾乎每一方面的發(fā)展都需要可靠地獲得現(xiàn)代能源服務(wù)。面對能源日益短缺和化石燃料價格飆升，許多國家都將目光轉(zhuǎn)向了核電，將其看作是增加燃料供應(yīng)多元化的一個途徑。對核電重燃興趣背后的一個動因是核電幾乎不排放溫室氣體。

5. 到 2007 年底，世界各地在建的反應(yīng)堆總數(shù)為 34 座。運行中的核動力堆為 439 座，供應(yīng)的電力約占全世界電力的 15%。在中國、印度和羅馬尼亞有三座新反應(yīng)堆并網(wǎng)發(fā)電，在美國則有一臺閑置機組重新并網(wǎng)。沒有任何反應(yīng)堆退役。在中國、法國、大韓民國和俄羅斯聯(lián)邦共有七座新反應(yīng)堆開工建設(shè)，而在美國，瓦茨巴 2 號機組恢復(fù)了建造工作。美國核管理委員會（美國核管會）收到了四項新反應(yīng)堆申請，這是近 30 年來的首批申請。

6. 原子能機構(gòu)在 2007 年上調(diào)了對全球核電增長的中期預(yù)測，2030 年對應(yīng)于低值預(yù)測和高值預(yù)測的核電裝機容量將分別達(dá)到 447 吉瓦（電）和 691 吉瓦（電）。當(dāng)前的發(fā)展以及近期和遠(yuǎn)期的增長前景仍以亞洲為中心。在建的 34 座反應(yīng)堆中有 19 座位于亞洲，新近并網(wǎng)的 39 座新反應(yīng)堆中也有 28 座在亞洲。

創(chuàng)新技術(shù)和方案

7. 技術(shù)創(chuàng)新是確保核電長期可持續(xù)性的一個關(guān)鍵因素。原子能機構(gòu)“革新型核反應(yīng)堆和燃料循環(huán)國際項目”¹ 為研究革新型核能系統(tǒng)和相關(guān)要求提供了一個論壇?；趯?/span>該項目成員 2005 年至 2007 年期間實施的國家計劃所作的評定，原子能機構(gòu)發(fā)表了關(guān)于適用于評價不同革新型核能系統(tǒng)的“革新型核反應(yīng)堆和燃料循環(huán)國際項目”方法學(xué)的建議。該方法學(xué)由涵蓋經(jīng)濟(jì)性、環(huán)境、基礎(chǔ)結(jié)構(gòu)、廢物管理和抗擴散的七個手冊組成，目前正被用于成員國和歐洲委員會所開展的評定工作，以及由該項目若干成員開展的快堆閉合燃料循環(huán)的研究?！案镄滦秃朔磻?yīng)堆和燃料循環(huán)國際項目”第二階段將側(cè)重于核電計劃起步國家的基礎(chǔ)結(jié)構(gòu)和制度建設(shè)的革新方案以及確定成員國間的協(xié)作項目。

 8.關(guān)于革新型核技術(shù)的另一項國際倡議是“第四代國際論壇”，該論壇旨在對以下六種下一代核能系統(tǒng)的研究活動進(jìn)行協(xié)調(diào)：氣冷快堆、鉛冷快堆、熔鹽堆、鈉冷快堆、超臨界水冷堆和超高溫反應(yīng)堆。² 2007 年，就鈉冷快堆的研究與發(fā)展項目達(dá)成了一致意見，以促進(jìn)開展先進(jìn)燃料、部件設(shè)計和電廠非反應(yīng)堆部件的工作。

9.  如果要使核電成為擁有小型電網(wǎng)的國家和地區(qū)的可行選擇方案，就非常有必要設(shè)計和生產(chǎn)出安全和價格相宜的中小型反應(yīng)堆。盡管 2007 年底在建的 34 座反應(yīng)堆中有七座的發(fā)電容量小于 600 兆瓦（電），而且還有三座的發(fā)電容量在 600 至 700 兆瓦（電）之間，但只有一個主要制造商提供了一種中小反應(yīng)堆設(shè)計，即 700 兆瓦（電） 的坎杜-6 型反應(yīng)堆。不少國家目前正在開發(fā)的中小型反應(yīng)堆創(chuàng)新設(shè)計約有 10 來種，其中一些可能在下個 10 年部署。例如在俄羅斯聯(lián)邦，利用兩座水冷堆的 70 兆瓦（電）海上浮動核電站的建造工作已于 4 月開始，并預(yù)定于 2010 年部署。